THE BAT X fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Add Ezequiel Tovar, stream Jordan Beck and more

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Baseball season is well underway, and with a plethora of articles, statistics and metrics available, it can be challenging to know who to start, sit, fade and trade. Using Derek Carty’s THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly program that helps fantasy managers with difficult roster decisions. THE BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years.

This week’s iteration suggests adding a now-healthy Ezequiel Tovar, where available, and streaming Jordan Beck based on the pitchers he’ll face this week. And there’s more — so much more. Let’s get to it.

Projections are based on a 12-team, mixed league format.

The Waiver Wire

For first-time readers, we compare year-to-date value (expressed as dollars, where $0 would represent a replacement-level player) against their projected rest-of-season value. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know.

For example, Ezequiel Tovar, no longer on the IL, tops this list with a current value of -$13.80 but a rest-of-season value of $13.40. He’s not highly available, but you’d be wise to check on his waiver status in your league. Against the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 17, he went 5-for-6, including a home run and two RBI. On the season, he’s batting .263, but his expected batting average is .291, and his K rate is the lowest of his career at 17.5%.

On the pitching side, Chicago Cub Matthew Boyd has been on this list and continues to have tremendous rest-of-season value at $16.30. He’s 4-2 with a 2.98 ERA and the lowest walk rate of his career at 6.1%. His changeup and slider have Whiff rates of 36.7% and 34.8%, respectively, though his four-seamer is just 19.2%. Teammate Ben Brown (starting Monday) tops the list with his $22.50 differential. Over his last two games, he’s given up five earned runs, but against the Brewers on May 2, he allowed only four hits and no earned runs over six innings pitched.

Fades and Trades

Like the waiver wire, the following list represents players to either fade completely or trade if their rest-of-season value remains high. Arizona’s Geraldo Perdomo tops this list for the second consecutive week, with a projected rest-of-season value of $-1.10. It may be hard to believe that Perdomo could drop so far with the season he’s having (.300 BA, 5 HR, 11 SB), but THE BAT X projection system doesn’t like what it’s seeing. There’s no need to drop him now, but watch to see if he slumps anytime soon or think of trading him for a player with a rest-of-season value near Perdomo’s current value.

Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman are two other players performing incredibly but with significant drops in their rest-of-season value. If you drafted Crow-Armstrong, great work. But at his height, you could try to flip him for a player with a higher rest-of-season projected value, but maybe watch for a slight decline first. Last week, we saw some pushback on Kwan’s low rest-of-season projected value, but his year-to-date value has dropped from $23.70 last week to $18.40 this week.

Carty said of THE BAT X projection on Kwan, “It just doesn’t buy his power at all. He doesn’t hit the ball hard; he doesn’t hit the ball in the air much. He’s in the 8th percentile in Barrel%, 10th percentile in exit velocity on flyballs and 2nd percentile max exit velocity…. And the career-high .345 BABIP driving his batting average up is likely to come down, and his Sprint Speed has fallen off considerably this year, too. He has one of those extreme outlier profiles, though, where he has insane bat control, which is tougher to quantify, and maybe that just carries him beyond the projection. But all the Statcast metrics going into the projection just say he’s got no power.”

According to THE BAT X projection system, the following pitchers are overperforming their rest-of-season projections and could be considered fades or trade bait. Nathan Eovaldi, Max Fried and Hunter Brown all fall in the trade-bait category. They all have a year-to-date value over $35 and rest-of-season values above $15. Given the projected decline in value you could flip them for pitchers with ROS values nearer to these pitchers’ YTD values. Seth Lugo recently hit the 15-day IL and has a negative ROS value, so he’s a drop candidate, as is Merrill Kelly (given there’s a pitcher with better projections on waivers). Kelly is 5-2 with a 3.26 ERA but an xERA of 4.11. The most concerning stats are his 45.7 Hard Hit rate (21st percentile) and 91.9 mph fastball velocity (16th percentile).

Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X’s projected rest-of-season value. These players have underperformed and have ROS values that are much higher than their YTD values. It’s probably no surprise that Yordan Alvarez tops the list with his differential of $35.40. He landed on the 10-day IL on May 5, and Manager Joe Espada said he’s improving but still feels the muscle strain in his right hand. Tread carefully, but you may be able to get him at a low price right now.

To date, Alvarez has a .210 BA, but he’s 95th percentile in average exit velocity, 98th in bat speed, 87th in BB%, 79th in xwOBA, and 72nd in K%. It’s probably too late to get Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in a trade, as he’s heating up lately, but Ketel Marte has a YTD value of only $0.10 and ROS value of 22.7. He could come at a good price. He’s hitting a respectable .273, but his xBA is .291, and he has 6 HR on the season. His 14.1 BB% and 13.0 K% are also encouraging.

As for pitchers, it’s hard to imagine managers trading away many of the pitchers on this list, specifically Tarik Skubal. However, Spencer Strider, Chris Sale, Dylan Cease and Logan Gilbert have not yet met expectations, and THE BAT X projects a much better ROS. If you have Eovaldi (from the Fade or Trade list above), shop him for one of these four pitchers, who have performed worse than him but have higher projections for the rest of the year.

Hitting

Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups this week. Jordan Beck’s name appears on this list often and is worth starting this week based on THE BAT X projections. His BA of .264 is very near his xBA of .266, but with several favorable matchups, he could hit much better this week. He’s above the 80th percentile in xwOBA, xSLG, Barrel%, Launch Angle Sweet Spot percentage and bat speed. He also has a respectable 47.6 HH% (73rd percentile). He’s also available on many waiver wires.

Here’s a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues.

This list includes players who have overperformed in the past 30 days, according to wOBA and xwOBA. Avoid falling for the players on this list who are available on waivers, and don’t worry about LA Dodger Freddie Freeman. He’ll be fine. He’s batting .371 with an xBA of .317, and his Statcast numbers are solid, aside from bat speed, which is a dismal 69.2 mph (14th percentile) and sprint speed (14th percentile). Colorado’s Hunter Goodman tops this section for the second consecutive week. He’s hitting .299 (up from .288 last week), but his xBA is only .245. Ship him now, or watch for more signs of decline and act accordingly. Catchers are hard to come by, but his career batting average is only .231.

The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. Many players on this list are highly rostered or shouldn’t be rostered, but the Chicago White Sox’s Andrew Vaughn is available and could be worth a wager. He’s only batting .184 this season, but his xBA is much higher at .248. If you’re desperate, or if you have a bench spot, look his way.

Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. The Philadelphia Phillies get the Rockies and A’s this week, so Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Bryson Stott could surge. Yankee Aaron Judge, already one of the best bats in the league, could have a tremendous week against the Texas Rangers and Colorado, and while New York’s Paul Goldschmidt is on the hitters to fade or trade list, maybe wait until next week to act on it, as he’s set up to do well this week.

Pitching

THE BAT X projections have predicted the best one- and two-start pitchers of the week, as well as pitchers to consider benching and the best matchups for bullpens.

The best projected pitcher this week is Chris Sale (also a trade target). Sale is 2-3 with a 3.62 ERA (3.36 xERA) but will face the Washington Nationals (21-27). He’s thrown his slider 461 times this year (which is more than he’s thrown his four-seamer) and for good reason. It’s his best pitch and comes with a 43.2 Whiff% and 26.6 PutAway%.

Tarik Skubal is at the top of the list of two-start pitchers. Getting two starts from Skubal in one week is a dream, and he’s facing St. Louis and Cleveland. The same goes for Hunter Brown. Sonny Gray is 4-1 but with a 4.50 ERA and 4.52 xERA. Still, he’s bound to improve and lower his ERA closer to his career number of 3.53.

This week, THE BAT X suggests considering benching Jesús Luzardo and Corbin Burnes based on their projections. These pitchers have a 2.00 and 2.56 ERA, respectively, but while Luzardo has a solid 3.19 xERA, Burnes has a 4.28 xERA. Look at your roster, and see if you’re brave enough to bench one of these two.

The Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen could be in for a good week based on matchups. Cade Smith is 1-1 this year with three saves. He has a solid ERA of 2.61 and an xERA of 2.49. Last year, he finished with a 1.91 ERA in 74 games. He could be available on waivers, and if he is, he might be a great add this week and for the year.

THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics.

(Photo of Jordan Beck: Lachlan Cunningham / Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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