Our betting expert Jones Knows previews the Europa League final and outlines where the value lies as Spurs and Manchester United look to save their seasons.
Spurs vs Manchester United, Europa League final, Wednesday 8pm
This is a beautifully grotesque final. Both teams are balancing on the highwire with no safety net below them.
We can get carried away with overdramatising the outcomes of football matches but this one truly is huge, especially for Tottenham, who have one game to decide whether it’s been their best or worst season for many years. It’s a ridiculous situation, really.
Manchester United are slight favourites with Sky Bet at 4/5 to lift the trophy with Spurs at 10/11. The 90-minute odds have United at 7/4 and Spurs at 29/20.
It’s a 50-50 spin of the Roulette wheel. White or red. Heads or tails.
I’m very confused about this game from a betting perspective.
These two teams have been completely different in the Europa League compared to their Premier League form. And usually you’d put more weight in the domestic form to gauge a true ability of a team, especially in this spot as this is an all-Premier League final. But I’m very torn.
United can’t score in the Premier League, averaging just 1.14 goals per 90 minutes and have scored just five goals in their last eight games. But look at their Europa League form.
They have averaged 2.5 goals per game this season, scoring a whopping 19 goals in their six games with Real Sociedad, Lyon and Athletic Club in the knockouts.
And then we have Spurs, who are equally as confusing to analyse. As they are a completely different team to their overall form of this Premier League season when their first-choice back five plays under Ange Postecoglou. The difference is simply huge.
When Guglielmo Vicario, Pedro Porro, Micky van de Ven, Cristian Romero and Destiny Udogie all play under Postecoglou, they have won 18 of those 30 games, losing just six times.
If you were converting that to points per game – that’s two per game. If you translate that over the course of a Premier League season of 38 games, you get 76 points, which would be enough to finish a clear second in the Premier League this season. There is a really good side lurking there.
It’s a game where backing teams both not to win is actually quite attractive, so the draw in 90 minutes at 23/10 with Sky Bet is the way to play the outright market.
Three of the last four Europa League finals have ended in a stalemate. It’s a result which is always a runner in finals of this nature where two big clubs meet with lots on the line.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 (Manchester United to win on penalties)
Much better opportunities are found in the props market for Wednesday’s clash in Bilbao, notably in the fouls markets.
The Europa League final has a rich tradition of being a foul-heavy occasion – it makes sense with such riches on the line.
The last 15 Europa League finals have averaged 31.2 fouls per 90 minutes.
That’s a huge number.
For context, Premier League matches have averaged 22.5 fouls per 90 this season, so the added jeopardy of a final using those numbers, there could be almost 10 more fouls in this type of game that a run-of-the-mill Premier League game. And when you throw in so much being on the line for these clubs and how evenly matched they are in the betting, I think this game could be very foul-heavy and potentially go way above the number the market is expecting.
Sky Bet has the line set at 24+ match fouls at 5/6 which looks a great starting point for those looking to exploit these total fouls angles. I’d advise laddering the prices on offer with Sky Bet right up to the 10/1 on offer for 32+ match fouls, which has a chance of landing based on the historic averages.
And it’s worth noting that Spurs are a foul-heavy team under Postecoglou – he likes to play expansive and man-for-man which creates lots of one-on-one situations in space that therefore lend itself to fouls being made. Since he was appointed, no team in the Premier League has seen more fouls in their matches than Tottenham – that average is 24.5 fouls per 90 over a 75-game sample size in the Premier League.
On the biggest stage, with so much on the line, I’d expect this Spurs game to hit those foul averages so those odds look very generous to me.
JONES KNOWS’ BEST BETS: 1pt on 24 or more total match fouls (5/6 with Sky Bet) & 0.5pts on 32 or more total match fouls (10/1 with Sky Bet)
Sky Sports to show 215 live PL games from next season
Watch more Premier League matches on Sky Sports ever before with 215 games live of the 2025/26 Premier League season.
From next season, Sky Sports’ Premier League coverage will increase from 128 matches to at least 215 games exclusively live.
And 80 per cent of all televised Premier League games next season are on Sky Sports.
This news was originally published on this post .
About the author
Craque Neto antecipa brasileiro eliminado na Copa do Mundo de Clubes da Fifa: “Não passa”
Craque Neto durante o Os Donos da Bola - Divulgação Craque Neto, como sempre, não teve papas na língua e acredita que o Fluminense terá uma passagem breve pelo Mundial de Clubes. Na avaliação do ex-jogador, o Tricolor da Laranjeiras rapidamente voltará para o Rio de Janeiro. Ao contrário de Flamengo e Palmeiras, o que deposita otimismo. No Os Donos da Bola, da Rádio Bandeirantes, o ídolo do Corinthians se mostrou bastante pessimista em relação ao time comandado por Renato Gaúcho. Por outro lado, está seguro de que Rubro-Negro e Verdão irão avançar para a fase seguinte da competição. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADE “O único time que eu acho que não passa da primeira fase é o Fluminense. Agora, Palmeiras e Flamengo têm tudo para passar. E o Botafogo… eu ainda não sei qual é a do Botafogo”, declarou o Craque Neto. […]
Boston prodloužil smlouvu s generálním manažerem Sweeneym
Osmapadesátiletý Sweeney působí v Bostonu od konce května 2015. V ročníku 2018/2019 získal Cenu Jima Gregoryho pro nejlepšího generálního manažera roku poté, co Bruins došli do finále, kde podlehli St. Louis.Boston během jeho angažmá osmkrát za sebou prošel do play off, série skončila v této sezoně. Nyní Sweeney dostal od majitele klubu Charlieho Jacobse důvěru k přebudování kádru včetně angažování nového trenéra.V listopadu byl odvolán kouč Jim Montgomery a Joe Sacco ho nahradil jen dočasně. Sweeney poté odstartoval obměnu týmu, když mimo jiné vyměnil i kapitána a posledního pamětníka zisku Stanley Cupu z roku 2011 Brada Marchanda.
Galvão Bueno critica ausência de atacante em pré-lista da seleção brasileira: “Primeiro erro do Ancelotti”
Ancelotti, técnico da seleção brasileira (Denis Doyle/Getty Images) O técnico Carlo Ancelotti já enviou uma pré-lista com 50 nomes, visando a sua primeira convocação pela seleção brasileira. A lista final, com 23 jogadores, será conhecida no dia 26 de maio. No programa “Galvão e Amigos” de ontem, exibido pela Band, o apresentador Galvão Bueno comentou alguns nomes da pré-lista que se tornaram público. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADE Do Corinthians, o único jogador foi o goleiro Hugo Souza, algo que intrigou o comunicador. Na opinião dele, o atacante Yuri Alberto não estar nessa lista é um erro do treinador italiano. Galvão cita, por exemplo, a presença de Pedro nessa lista, sendo que o atacante do Flamengo ainda não se firmou como titular depois que se recuperou de lesão. “Esse vazamento do Corinthians tem só o Hugo, não tem o Yuri Alberto? Esse foi […]
Verfahrene Situation – Warum Bayern einen Sané-Abgang verkraften könnte
Beim FC Bayern genießen die Gespräche mit Pini Zahavi (82) hohe Priorität. Denn: Der Star-Berater zählt sowohl Leverkusens Jonathan Tah (29) zu seinen Klienten, der vor einem Wechsel nach München steht, als auch Leroy Sané (29), dessen Verlängerung seines auslaufenden Vertrages derzeit kompliziert ist. „Halleluja“: Sensations-Golfschlag UNTER Wasser!<!-->[-->Quelle: BILD/Dyn/TikTok/YouTube20.05.2025Mit Sanés vorheriger Agentur „11Wins“ hatte Bayerns Sportvorstand Max Eberl (51) bereits eine Einigung um eine Verlängerung bis 2028 erzielt, bevor der deutsche Nationalspieler noch vor der Unterschrift zu Zahavi wechselte. Die Situation ist seither verfahren. Das Bayern-Angebot lehnte Sané am Wochenende ab. Der Klub ist nicht bereit, die Bezüge, die bei geschätzten 10 Millionen plus 5 Millionen Euro an Boni gelegen haben sollen, zu erhöhen. Die Gespräche sollen dennoch fortgesetzt werden.Lesen Sie auch<!-->[-->Einen Abgang von Sané könnte Bayern bei einer Verpflichtung von Leverkusen-Juwel Florian Wirtz (22) sportlich verkraften. Mit Kingsley Coman […]
Jordon Hudson reportedly tells confidant she and Bill Belichick are engaged
In a development that has captivated both sports and entertainment circles, Jordon Hudson, the 24-year-old girlfriend of legendary NFL coach Bill Belichick and current North Carolina Tar Heels coach in the NCAA, has reportedly informed at least one individual that the couple is engaged. This revelation, first reported by The Athletic, has intensified speculation about the nature of their relationship, which has been under public scrutiny since it became public knowledge.The engagement rumors gained momentum after Jordon Hudson was spotted wearing a ring on her left ring finger during a luncheon with Belichick at the American Museum of Natural History in New York City. The couple's relationship, which began after a chance meeting on a flight in 2021, has been a topic of discussion, not least because of their 48-year age difference.Buffalo Bills Poised for Success with Favorable Schedule and […]
Glory for Mourinho, heartbreak for Solskjaer – stories of Manchester United’s Europa League finals
Follow live from Bilbao today as we build up to the Europa League final between Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United.“Thursday night, Channel 5,” Manchester United fans gleefully chanted at their Liverpool counterparts back when United were Champions League regulars.From 1993, United qualified for Europe’s top competition every single season until Sir Alex Ferguson’s departure, winning twice and reaching two further finals and three semi-finals. For United, the UEFA Cup/Europa League was a tinpot consolation for clubs which couldn’t cut it.AdvertisementBut not now.United are the Europa League regulars these days. They won the trophy in 2017 (the only competition United hadn’t won since it superseded the UEFA Cup) under Jose Mourinho in Stockholm. They reached the final again four years later under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, in Gdansk against Villarreal. United lost that one 11-10 on penalties and Solskjaer lost his job […]
Related
Craque Neto antecipa brasileiro eliminado na Copa do Mundo de Clubes da Fifa: “Não passa”
Craque Neto durante o Os Donos da Bola - Divulgação Craque Neto, como sempre, não teve papas na língua e acredita que o Fluminense terá uma passagem breve pelo Mundial de Clubes. Na avaliação do ex-jogador, o Tricolor da Laranjeiras rapidamente voltará para o Rio de Janeiro. Ao contrário de Flamengo e Palmeiras, o que deposita otimismo. No Os Donos da Bola, da Rádio Bandeirantes, o ídolo do Corinthians se mostrou bastante pessimista em relação ao time comandado por Renato Gaúcho. Por outro lado, está seguro de que Rubro-Negro e Verdão irão avançar para a fase seguinte da competição. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADE “O único time que eu acho que não passa da primeira fase é o Fluminense. Agora, Palmeiras e Flamengo têm tudo para passar. E o Botafogo… eu ainda não sei qual é a do Botafogo”, declarou o Craque Neto. […]
Boston prodloužil smlouvu s generálním manažerem Sweeneym
Osmapadesátiletý Sweeney působí v Bostonu od konce května 2015. V ročníku 2018/2019 získal Cenu Jima Gregoryho pro nejlepšího generálního manažera roku poté, co Bruins došli do finále, kde podlehli St. Louis.Boston během jeho angažmá osmkrát za sebou prošel do play off, série skončila v této sezoně. Nyní Sweeney dostal od majitele klubu Charlieho Jacobse důvěru k přebudování kádru včetně angažování nového trenéra.V listopadu byl odvolán kouč Jim Montgomery a Joe Sacco ho nahradil jen dočasně. Sweeney poté odstartoval obměnu týmu, když mimo jiné vyměnil i kapitána a posledního pamětníka zisku Stanley Cupu z roku 2011 Brada Marchanda.
Galvão Bueno critica ausência de atacante em pré-lista da seleção brasileira: “Primeiro erro do Ancelotti”
Ancelotti, técnico da seleção brasileira (Denis Doyle/Getty Images) O técnico Carlo Ancelotti já enviou uma pré-lista com 50 nomes, visando a sua primeira convocação pela seleção brasileira. A lista final, com 23 jogadores, será conhecida no dia 26 de maio. No programa “Galvão e Amigos” de ontem, exibido pela Band, o apresentador Galvão Bueno comentou alguns nomes da pré-lista que se tornaram público. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADE Do Corinthians, o único jogador foi o goleiro Hugo Souza, algo que intrigou o comunicador. Na opinião dele, o atacante Yuri Alberto não estar nessa lista é um erro do treinador italiano. Galvão cita, por exemplo, a presença de Pedro nessa lista, sendo que o atacante do Flamengo ainda não se firmou como titular depois que se recuperou de lesão. “Esse vazamento do Corinthians tem só o Hugo, não tem o Yuri Alberto? Esse foi […]
Verfahrene Situation – Warum Bayern einen Sané-Abgang verkraften könnte
Beim FC Bayern genießen die Gespräche mit Pini Zahavi (82) hohe Priorität. Denn: Der Star-Berater zählt sowohl Leverkusens Jonathan Tah (29) zu seinen Klienten, der vor einem Wechsel nach München steht, als auch Leroy Sané (29), dessen Verlängerung seines auslaufenden Vertrages derzeit kompliziert ist. „Halleluja“: Sensations-Golfschlag UNTER Wasser!<!-->[-->Quelle: BILD/Dyn/TikTok/YouTube20.05.2025Mit Sanés vorheriger Agentur „11Wins“ hatte Bayerns Sportvorstand Max Eberl (51) bereits eine Einigung um eine Verlängerung bis 2028 erzielt, bevor der deutsche Nationalspieler noch vor der Unterschrift zu Zahavi wechselte. Die Situation ist seither verfahren. Das Bayern-Angebot lehnte Sané am Wochenende ab. Der Klub ist nicht bereit, die Bezüge, die bei geschätzten 10 Millionen plus 5 Millionen Euro an Boni gelegen haben sollen, zu erhöhen. Die Gespräche sollen dennoch fortgesetzt werden.Lesen Sie auch<!-->[-->Einen Abgang von Sané könnte Bayern bei einer Verpflichtung von Leverkusen-Juwel Florian Wirtz (22) sportlich verkraften. Mit Kingsley Coman […]
Jordon Hudson reportedly tells confidant she and Bill Belichick are engaged
In a development that has captivated both sports and entertainment circles, Jordon Hudson, the 24-year-old girlfriend of legendary NFL coach Bill Belichick and current North Carolina Tar Heels coach in the NCAA, has reportedly informed at least one individual that the couple is engaged. This revelation, first reported by The Athletic, has intensified speculation about the nature of their relationship, which has been under public scrutiny since it became public knowledge.The engagement rumors gained momentum after Jordon Hudson was spotted wearing a ring on her left ring finger during a luncheon with Belichick at the American Museum of Natural History in New York City. The couple's relationship, which began after a chance meeting on a flight in 2021, has been a topic of discussion, not least because of their 48-year age difference.Buffalo Bills Poised for Success with Favorable Schedule and […]
Glory for Mourinho, heartbreak for Solskjaer – stories of Manchester United’s Europa League finals
Follow live from Bilbao today as we build up to the Europa League final between Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United.“Thursday night, Channel 5,” Manchester United fans gleefully chanted at their Liverpool counterparts back when United were Champions League regulars.From 1993, United qualified for Europe’s top competition every single season until Sir Alex Ferguson’s departure, winning twice and reaching two further finals and three semi-finals. For United, the UEFA Cup/Europa League was a tinpot consolation for clubs which couldn’t cut it.AdvertisementBut not now.United are the Europa League regulars these days. They won the trophy in 2017 (the only competition United hadn’t won since it superseded the UEFA Cup) under Jose Mourinho in Stockholm. They reached the final again four years later under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, in Gdansk against Villarreal. United lost that one 11-10 on penalties and Solskjaer lost his job […]
Be the first to leave a comment