Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Matt Shaw offers upside after strong showing in return to Cubs lineup, and more

You know why we don’t do victory laps after just a few starts? Because we don’t want to look dumb. 

Robbie Ray became a popular breakout pick with his spotless spring performance before the season, and then he totally fell on his face to open the season. Ray had a 2.93 ERA through his first three starts but with just 13 strikeouts in 15.1 innings and 10 walks. And then he was tagged for four runs over four innings with four more walks in his fourth start and it looked like Ray was going to prove to be a big-time spring overreaction. 

Or not.

Ray went punch for punch with Kris Bubic in a pitcher’s duel Monday to lower his season ERA to 2.70, and he’s been basically untouchable for the past month. Since that four-run outing on April 16, Ray has 40 strikeouts to 12 walks over 37.1 innings of work, and he’s really had everything working for him. On Monday, Ray had at least three whiffs on his four-seamer, slider, and changeup, and while his curveball wasn’t missing bats, he did generate five batted balls with an average exit velocity of just 85.9 mph.

It’s a legit four-pitch mix for Ray now, with all four generating plenty of whiffs and plenty of soft contact lately. There will almost certainly be stretches in the future where the command wavers – you’ll still see it with the curveball and changeup, especially at times – and he’ll frustrate us, but it’s hard to find many flaws with Ray right now. He’s healthy, he’s showing off the deepest arsenal of his career and doesn’t have any obvious red flags in his profile.  

I wouldn’t go so far as to say this is the best version of Ray we’ve ever seen – the man won a Cy Young Award, after all. But he looks excellent right now, and it sure looks like the Ray believers this spring are being rewarded. 

Here’s what else you need to know about from Monday’s games, beginning with the return of a top prospect to the majors: 

Tuesday’s top waiver-wire targets

Matt Shaw, 3B, Cubs (52%) – I love a top prospect who flounders in their first taste of the majors and subsequently comes at a huge discount the next time we see them. It’s working out nicely with Jackson Holliday so far this season, and I’m betting it’ll work out for Shaw, who was recalled from Triple-A Monday and was back in the Cubs lineup at third base, going 2 for 4 with an RBI. Shaw looked downright timid in his first stint in the majors after earning an Opening Day job, swinging at just 30.8% of the pitches he saw, which would be the lowest mark in the majors by nearly 5% of his qualified. He was certainly more passive than selective, but he got on the right side of that at Triple-A, hitting .286/.409/.560 with more walks than strikeouts. There could still be a learning curve here, but Shaw remains a talented young player with speed and power, and all he’ll cost you to find out this time is a bit of your FAB budget or a waiver-wire claim. The upside is well worth chasing. 

Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Rockies (61%) – I was surprised by how far Tovar’s roster rate fell during his injury, but I’m happy to take advantage. I’m not his biggest fan as a hitter – he’s way too aggressive in his swing decisions for a guy with iffy contact skills – but he also hit .269 with 26 homers last season, so it’s not like I can’t recognize the appeal. He’s a fringe-y points league option but basically must start in any categories league, especially ones that have a MI spot. He homered for the second straight game Monday, so now’s the time to add him. 

Austin Hays, OF, Reds (57%) – Hays is still too under-rostered. Injuries have disrupted his season at multiple points, but when he’s been on the field for the Reds, he’s been a terrific fit, and after his three-hit game Monday he’s now up to a .330/.375/.602 line for the season. It’s a small sample size with an inflated BABIP, so he won’t hit .330 for long. But it’s not like it’s a total fluke – his expected wOBA entering Monday was .385, a very good mark. Hays was held back by a terrible home park the past few years, but Cincinnati is just about the best park in baseball for hitting, and he’s taking advantage. I think he might just be a must-start outfielder moving forward. 

Jesus Sanchez, OF, Marlins (12%) – Prior to Monday against the Cubs, Sanchez really hadn’t done much since his return from an oblique injury. But he hit his first homer in nearly a month Monday as part of a 3 for 5 day, and most importantly, he was in the leadoff spot for the Marlins, a spot he’ll be occupying against righties for as long as Xavier Edwards is out. Sanchez is pretty much just a platoon bat, and he has struggled so far this season, so he’s not a super-high priority add. But the move up the lineup spot could make him a useful streaming option for the next few weeks, at least. 

Eury Perez, SP, Marlins (58%) – We’re probably still a couple of weeks away from Perez being ready to return to Miami’s rotation, but it’s coming. Perez is taking the final step in his return from last April’s Tommy John surgery, and he’s set to move his rehab assignment up to Triple-A this week after striking out 12 and walking three in 10 innings at Class A. He’s approaching the 30-day limit for a rehab assignment but will likely get an extension to make at least a few more starts – he only got up to 48 pitches and four innings in his most recent start. There’s no guaranteeing Perez will be a standout in his return from Tommy John, but he’s one of the most talented young pitchers in the game, and that upside is worth chasing, even if there’s some downside risk. He should be back some time in June.