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There is a lot of excitement around the 2025 NFL Draft‘s crop of rookies for fantasy football purposes, especially those drafted within the first two rounds. However, not every player will have an equal path to playing time, which is, ultimately, the greatest factor in fantasy production.
After going over the rookies with the best path to fantasy football success in Year 1 here, this list focuses on the highly drafted rookies (within the first two rounds) who are least likely to make a Year 1 impact for fantasy football.
WR Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Egbuka was the third wide receiver selected in the 2025 NFL Draft, behind Travis Hunter and Tetairoa McMillan, though his situation is not nearly as ideal. The Buccaneers’ two high-end veterans, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, create significant target competition for the rookie.
Evans (26.2%) and Godwin (24.6%) both ranked inside the top 20 at the position in 2024 in target rate, leaving very little for others in the offense to thrive. When both were healthy in 2024 (ran minimum 15 routes), the third receiving option averaged five targets per game. Without weekly touchdowns, that isn’t likely to provide much consistent fantasy value.
Egbuka may still emerge as a weekly weapon for Baker Mayfield, especially if Godwin takes a while to bounce back from his 2024 injury and if Evans starts to slow down at 32 years old in Year 12, so don’t count him out completely. But it’s not an easy path. Beyond this season, that path will start to get clearer, but for now, temper expectations for the 19th overall pick.
WR Luther Burden III, Chicago Bears
Burden was a fringe first-round pick heading into the 2025 NFL Draft, and while he fell to the second round, he’s still a highly drafted wide receiver with big expectations for his NFL career. Unfortunately, Burden faces high-end target competition — and a lot of it — with DJ Moore coming off a season with the second-most targets (137) for his career and 2023 top-10 pick Rome Odunze looking to take on a bigger role. The team also used a top-10 pick on tight end Colston Loveland, so there are a lot of mouths to feed in Chicago.
Burden offers an intriguing skill set that could allow him to be Ben Johnson’s new version of Amon-Ra St. Brown, which is the ideal outcome, even if the number of passing game options makes that a little more unlikely. Considering the crowded depth chart, don’t put too much faith in Burden to have a Year 1 breakout. If Caleb Williams doesn’t improve from his 32nd-ranked PFF passing grade (63.5) in his rookie season, then there are even more reasons to temper expectations, at least in 2025.
RB TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots
As the consensus pre-draft RB3 and now an early second-round pick, Henderson should still be considered a top young running back in the league, though he may not be fully unleashed in Year 1. Rhamondre Stevenson had a down season in 2024 but still carried the ball more than 200 times and caught 33 passes. Stevenson is a bigger back capable of taking goal-line carries, of which he’s been the team leader over the past three seasons (36, 55%), with the next closest player taking just seven since 2022.
Stevenson also signed a four-year contract extension in 2024, so the team has significantly invested in him and Henderson, which could create the committee backfield for which new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has become known. He generally has one back take the carries and the other handle receiving duties. Stevenson getting more work on early downs and Henderson getting more passing-down work wouldn’t be a surprise, which is why 2025 might not allow Henderson to deliver the same fantasy production as his rookie peers.
WR Matthew Golden, Green Bay Packers
Golden’s first-round draft capital is impossible to ignore, especially since he joined a team that hasn’t drafted a first-round wide receiver since 2002.
The Packers’ receiving corps isn’t exactly star-studded, but there are several capable starters, including Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and even tight end Tucker Kraft. All four saw at least 70 targets last year, making Green Bay one of just four teams (playoffs included) to hit that mark. However, Dontayvion Wicks’ 80 targets was the lowest team-leading total across the 2024 season. On one hand, the Packers desperately need a top receiver to break out, and on the other, there’s potentially more mouths to feed than it seems.
For Golden, one of the potential barriers arises from his college production, as he failed to crack even 2.00 yards per route run for his career, which has led to a lot more failed fantasy producers in the NFL than not. It’s not impossible for Golden to shine, especially if his final four college games were any indication. Brian Thomas Jr. made this list last year and proved me wrong in Year 1. However, the odds say Golden may take time to get there at the next level.
QB Jaxson Dart, New York Giants
Though first-round quarterbacks are often in a good position to start at some point as rookies, Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston make it so that there isn’t a need to rush things for Dart. With two veteran quarterbacks ahead of him on the depth chart, Dart can get some much-needed development time before being thrown into a starting role, especially on a team that isn’t in the best position to give him an easier time as a starter.
Dart comes out of college with strong PFF passing grades in back-to-back seasons in Lane Kiffin’s offense, though there’s still work to be done, as his overall accuracy isn’t where it’ll need to be in the NFL. Dart posted just a 60% catchable pass rate for his college career (58th percentile since 2017), and just 34% on 20-plus-yard throws (30th percentile). He should be afforded more time than most first-round quarterbacks before emerging as a starter, so expectations should be set low for Year 1.
This news was originally published on this post .
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