The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals at 8:30 p.m. ET after surviving a seven-game series against the Denver Nuggets. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves enter on a four-game winning streak after having a relatively easy five-game victory over the Golden State Warriors, who played the majority of the series without Stephen Curry. Minnesota and Oklahoma City split their four regular-season matchups and each team also won a game on the other team’s home court. The Thunder are favored by 7.5 points, and the over/under is 216 points in the latest Thunder vs. Timberwolves odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the conference finals of the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 159-117 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 23-11 (68%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, here are the model’s top-three picks in the Timberwolves vs. Thunder SGP on Tuesday:
- OKC – 7.5 (-108)
- Chet Holmgren 15+ points (-106)
- Isaiah Hartenstein Over 2.5 assists (-128)
- SGP pays out +413 (odds subject to change)
Oklahoma City -7.5 (-108)
The Thunder had the best home record in the NBA this season (36-6) during the regular season, and they are 31-14-2 ATS at home this year, including the postseason, while being favored in every home contest. Oklahoma City is 4-2 ATS at home during the postseason and is coming off a 32-point victory as an 8.5-point home favorite against the Nuggets in Game 7. The Thunder had a +34 turnover margin at home against Denver in the last round, and that trend could continue against Minnesota. The model projects the Thunder to cover the spread in well over 60% of simulations.
Chet Holmgren 15+ points (-106)
Holmgren scored at least 15 points in three of seven games against Denver, but he scored at least 12 points in all seven despite playing limited minutes in some contests due to score differentials. He had 13 points over just 28 minutes in Game 7. Holmgren has scored at least 15 points in 12 of 13 games he’s played at least 30 minutes this year, and despite the model projecting the Thunder to cover the spread, it still has Holmgren at 32 minutes in Game 1 and scoring more than 15 points.
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 2.5 Assists (-128)
The 7-foot Thunder center averaged 3.8 assists per game this season and went Over this total in 48 of 69 games (69.6%) this year. He’s gone Over this number in seven of 11 games this postseason, and although going up against Rudy Gobert is a tough matchup, it could lead him to look to pass even more often. The model projects plenty of made field goals for Oklahoma City on Tuesday, and Hartenstein has become a facilitating factor this year.
Looking for a potential +413 payout? Bet our 3-leg NBA SGP parlay at FanDuel right now, and get $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins.
Want more NBA picks for today?
You’ve seen some of the model’s top NBA playoff best bets for Tuesday. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today’s top NBA picks from expert Mike Barner, who’s on a sizzling 165-116 (+2898) roll on his last 281 NBA player props picks, which includes a play on one of Minnesota’s stars. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up nearly 29 units.
This news was originally published on this post .
About the author
Best possible NFL flag football team for 2028 Olympics: Commanders’ Jayden Daniels could lead Team USA stars
The NFL is going international, not just with its 2025 schedule, which includes a record seven different overseas contests played across five different countries, but with the 2028 Olympics. While the next Summer Games will be held stateside in Los Angeles, the NFL is officially set to partake in worldwide competition when flag football makes its anticipated Olympics debut.NFL owners voted on Tuesday to allow player participation in the 2028 Summer Games, permitting up to one player per NFL team to represent America at the Olympics. It marks the latest chapter in an ongoing effort by the NFL to embrace and elevate flag football's popularity, with league executive Troy Vincent declaring back in 2022 that the no-contact version of the sport is "the future of the game of football."NFL FLAG, the NFL's official flag football program, deploys a standard 5-on-5 format, […]
What we learned from the first Patriots OTA: Drake Maye struggles, Christian Gonzalez shines
FOXBORO, Mass. — Before the first open 11-on-11 practice of his tenure as New England Patriots head coach, Mike Vrabel didn’t hide from the importance (or lack thereof) in these voluntary sessions known as organized team activities.When asked how the Pats would accomplish the physicality needed during the season in these mid-May practices, Vrabel was blunt.Advertisement“I don’t think that you can. I don’t,” he said. “I think that you can focus on pad level. You can focus on hand placement, but physicality is not something that’s going to be identified over the course of the next four weeks.”That’s good context for digesting the first open Patriots practice of the 2025 season, one where the defense dominated and Drake Maye struggled.Here is a look at what we learned from the session.A rusty performance from MayeWe’re not here to put much stock […]
Kanada přehrála Švédsko a zajistila si prvenství ve skupině
Online magazín deníku Právo & Seznam.czCopyright © 1996–2025, Seznam.cz, a.s., Borgis, a.s., ČTK, DPA, Reuters, fotobanka Profimedia.Publikování nebo další šíření obsahu serveru Sport.cz je bez písemného souhlasu společnosti Borgis, a.s. zakázáno. RSS kanály serveru Sport.cz jsou určeny pouze pro osobní užití. Jakékoli kopírování, šíření nebo využívání obsahu RSS kanálů serveru Sport.cz bez předchozího písemného souhlasu společnosti Borgis a.s. není dovoleno. Dodavatelem obsahu serveru Sport.cz a osobou vykonávající redakční odpovědnost je společnost BORGIS a.s. Šiřitelem reklamy na serveru Sport.cz je společnost Seznam.cz, a.s., IČO 26168685.
2025 NBA Conference Finals odds, predictions: Back Anthony Edwards to win WCF MVP
Jason McIntyre Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst <!--> The NBA conference finals are here, and I'm confident we're in for some really excellent basketball.And with great basketball comes great wagers — one can only hope.I've got three bets that I'm making right now before the next round tips off. Let's get into it.Finals Matchup: Knicks to beat Timberwolves +1200The world is backing the Oklahoma City Thunder to advance to the Finals and to win it all. I believe part of this has to do with the fact OKC beat mighty Denver. The Nuggets won a title a couple of years ago, and they have the best player in the league in Nikola Jokic. It was a galvanizing, hard-fought series. The public is all over 68-win OKC after watching that. Meanwhile, Minnesota didn’t look particularly impressive, beating the Steph […]
Čtyřminutovka hrůzy rozhodla. Čeští mladíci na úvod Eura podlehli Itálii
Čeští dorostenci se nijak neostýchali a do náročného duelu nevstoupili vůbec zle. Už po čtvrthodince hry si naopak vypracovali gólovou šanci. Matyáš Tomek po chybě v italské rozehrávce chytrým pasem do vápna vysunul Dominika Zajace, jenže jeho zakončení na přední tyč brankář Sebastiano Nava dokázal vyškrábnout přes břevno.Poločas zdánlivě spěl k bezbrankové remíze, jenže italský výběr měl jiné plány, které se mu podařilo realizovat těsně před přestávkou. Dva slepené góly.🇨🇿 17 | Úvodní zápas na ME do 17 let naši reprezentanti nezvládli a podlehli Itálii těsně 1:2. 🇮🇹🆚🇨🇿 pic.twitter.com/mqXqhOSsin— Česká fotbalová reprezentace (@ceskarepre_cz) May 20, 2025 Samuele Inacio, borec z akademie německého Dortmundu, se ve 38. minutě prosadil po centru zprava. Stálo při něm i štěstí, neboť při prvním pokusu o zakončení míč netrefil ideálně. Jenže na druhý pokus už se z bezprostřední blízkosti nemýlil. O pár chvil později přišel kroucený balon do vápna z opačné strany a hlavička Antonia Areny […]
Which NFL players will compete in 2028 Olympics flag football? What’s next after league approves participation
Getty Images The NFL unanimously approved for its players to participate in flag football in the 2028 Olympics in a vote on Tuesday at the league meetings. Now comes the hard part.The resolution, announced last week with the expected rubber stamp on Tuesday, allows for the league to negotiate with the players union and other flag football governing bodies that will eventually see current NFL players go for gold in Los Angeles three years from now."It's an incredible honor for any athlete to represent their country in the Olympics, which is the pinnacle of global sport," NFL commissioner Roger Goodell said in a statement. "I know first-hand that the inclusion of flag football in the Olympics has sparked a tremendous amount of excitement among NFL players interested in the chance to compete for their country on the world stage. We […]
Related
Best possible NFL flag football team for 2028 Olympics: Commanders’ Jayden Daniels could lead Team USA stars
The NFL is going international, not just with its 2025 schedule, which includes a record seven different overseas contests played across five different countries, but with the 2028 Olympics. While the next Summer Games will be held stateside in Los Angeles, the NFL is officially set to partake in worldwide competition when flag football makes its anticipated Olympics debut.NFL owners voted on Tuesday to allow player participation in the 2028 Summer Games, permitting up to one player per NFL team to represent America at the Olympics. It marks the latest chapter in an ongoing effort by the NFL to embrace and elevate flag football's popularity, with league executive Troy Vincent declaring back in 2022 that the no-contact version of the sport is "the future of the game of football."NFL FLAG, the NFL's official flag football program, deploys a standard 5-on-5 format, […]
What we learned from the first Patriots OTA: Drake Maye struggles, Christian Gonzalez shines
FOXBORO, Mass. — Before the first open 11-on-11 practice of his tenure as New England Patriots head coach, Mike Vrabel didn’t hide from the importance (or lack thereof) in these voluntary sessions known as organized team activities.When asked how the Pats would accomplish the physicality needed during the season in these mid-May practices, Vrabel was blunt.Advertisement“I don’t think that you can. I don’t,” he said. “I think that you can focus on pad level. You can focus on hand placement, but physicality is not something that’s going to be identified over the course of the next four weeks.”That’s good context for digesting the first open Patriots practice of the 2025 season, one where the defense dominated and Drake Maye struggled.Here is a look at what we learned from the session.A rusty performance from MayeWe’re not here to put much stock […]
Kanada přehrála Švédsko a zajistila si prvenství ve skupině
Online magazín deníku Právo & Seznam.czCopyright © 1996–2025, Seznam.cz, a.s., Borgis, a.s., ČTK, DPA, Reuters, fotobanka Profimedia.Publikování nebo další šíření obsahu serveru Sport.cz je bez písemného souhlasu společnosti Borgis, a.s. zakázáno. RSS kanály serveru Sport.cz jsou určeny pouze pro osobní užití. Jakékoli kopírování, šíření nebo využívání obsahu RSS kanálů serveru Sport.cz bez předchozího písemného souhlasu společnosti Borgis a.s. není dovoleno. Dodavatelem obsahu serveru Sport.cz a osobou vykonávající redakční odpovědnost je společnost BORGIS a.s. Šiřitelem reklamy na serveru Sport.cz je společnost Seznam.cz, a.s., IČO 26168685.
2025 NBA Conference Finals odds, predictions: Back Anthony Edwards to win WCF MVP
Jason McIntyre Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst <!--> The NBA conference finals are here, and I'm confident we're in for some really excellent basketball.And with great basketball comes great wagers — one can only hope.I've got three bets that I'm making right now before the next round tips off. Let's get into it.Finals Matchup: Knicks to beat Timberwolves +1200The world is backing the Oklahoma City Thunder to advance to the Finals and to win it all. I believe part of this has to do with the fact OKC beat mighty Denver. The Nuggets won a title a couple of years ago, and they have the best player in the league in Nikola Jokic. It was a galvanizing, hard-fought series. The public is all over 68-win OKC after watching that. Meanwhile, Minnesota didn’t look particularly impressive, beating the Steph […]
Čtyřminutovka hrůzy rozhodla. Čeští mladíci na úvod Eura podlehli Itálii
Čeští dorostenci se nijak neostýchali a do náročného duelu nevstoupili vůbec zle. Už po čtvrthodince hry si naopak vypracovali gólovou šanci. Matyáš Tomek po chybě v italské rozehrávce chytrým pasem do vápna vysunul Dominika Zajace, jenže jeho zakončení na přední tyč brankář Sebastiano Nava dokázal vyškrábnout přes břevno.Poločas zdánlivě spěl k bezbrankové remíze, jenže italský výběr měl jiné plány, které se mu podařilo realizovat těsně před přestávkou. Dva slepené góly.🇨🇿 17 | Úvodní zápas na ME do 17 let naši reprezentanti nezvládli a podlehli Itálii těsně 1:2. 🇮🇹🆚🇨🇿 pic.twitter.com/mqXqhOSsin— Česká fotbalová reprezentace (@ceskarepre_cz) May 20, 2025 Samuele Inacio, borec z akademie německého Dortmundu, se ve 38. minutě prosadil po centru zprava. Stálo při něm i štěstí, neboť při prvním pokusu o zakončení míč netrefil ideálně. Jenže na druhý pokus už se z bezprostřední blízkosti nemýlil. O pár chvil později přišel kroucený balon do vápna z opačné strany a hlavička Antonia Areny […]
Which NFL players will compete in 2028 Olympics flag football? What’s next after league approves participation
Getty Images The NFL unanimously approved for its players to participate in flag football in the 2028 Olympics in a vote on Tuesday at the league meetings. Now comes the hard part.The resolution, announced last week with the expected rubber stamp on Tuesday, allows for the league to negotiate with the players union and other flag football governing bodies that will eventually see current NFL players go for gold in Los Angeles three years from now."It's an incredible honor for any athlete to represent their country in the Olympics, which is the pinnacle of global sport," NFL commissioner Roger Goodell said in a statement. "I know first-hand that the inclusion of flag football in the Olympics has sparked a tremendous amount of excitement among NFL players interested in the chance to compete for their country on the world stage. We […]
Be the first to leave a comment