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Unless you’re a Tottenham Hotspur or Manchester United fan, you’re probably not looking forward to this week’s UEFA Europa League final — and who could blame you?
It is, after all, a tragic showdown between the 16th- and 17th-best teams in the Premier League. Neither score very often, and both lose frequently. While an element of “who can save their season from absolute disaster?” is quite engaging, ultimately, we’re steeling ourselves for a bad watch.
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In these situations wacky, weird and wonderful bets become your best friend. We’ve cooked up three different, strange angles to wager on, transforming what we think will be the bad bits of the match into bets that work in our favour.
No goals, some goals, a lot of goals?
Julia Ranney: Despite playing 16 more games, Man United are on track to finish the domestic season with fewer points than their women’s team, who wrapped up third spot in the Women’s Super League last week. Let that sink in.
It’s been a comically bleak campaign for Ruben Amorim’s side, and their form heading into Wednesday’s final doesn’t inspire confidence. The Red Devils are winless in their last eight league games, managing just five goals in that stretch. Spurs haven’t fared much better; they’re winless in six, with the same five-goal tally.
The problems unfolding at the other end of the pitch are even more embarrassing. Ange Postecoglou’s tired troopers have let in a staggering 61 goals in 37 games this term — only two adrift of their scoring tally. United, meanwhile, aren’t far behind with 42 goals scored and 54 conceded.
Now, the last five results point towards a goal-fest, but an over-4.5-goals goal-fest? It’s a bit of a stretch, a possibility at most. These two teams are probably the strongest candidates for turning possibility into reality. Betfair are offering 180/1 on the above, combined with 13-plus corners and nine or more cards. In a similarly spicy vein, a 4-3 win for either team is being priced at 150/1.
If you’re an anxious bettor looking for more reliable odds, then placing a wager on 1-2 total goals is a safer choice. But if you’re feeling adventurous, counting on two teams with attacking units as dry as the Sahara Desert to score an unexpectedly high number of goals could be as weird as it gets.
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You get a foul, you get a foul, everybody gets a foul!
Sam Tighe: I’m going to tap into — and try to bring to life — one of the classic tropes we always expect from a final: the natural caginess of a game where a trophy is on the line.
Spectators often complain about this phenomenon, as they get hyped up for a showpiece event only to watch two teams desperately try not to lose rather than push to win. (To be fair, few neutrals will be whipping themselves into a frenzy ahead of this particular final, but plenty might kid themselves into believing “it could surprise us” before being swiftly let down.)
I have a simple antidote: Instead of expecting goals, expect fouls. Genius, right?
Manchester United have averaged just over 10 fouls per 90 minutes in Europe this season. That’s actually on the low end of the scale — 28 teams averaged more, with committing the most with 15.75 — which is a bit of a shock considering the identity of their central midfielders.
But in the context of a final, it’s easy to see Manuel Ugarte and Casemiro’s famed tenacity and aggression ramping up a few levels. Taking the former to register three-plus fouls at 13/8 or the latter to register two-plus at 11/10 will make that stodgy midfield battle a lot more fun to watch.
Perhaps the most interesting of all is Patrick Dorgu. This is a big stage for the wildly inexperienced 20-year-old, who plays a combative, energetic left-wing-back role. His style of defending is to get very tight to his man, at times showing impatience in the tackle, and when he’s running back from a lung-busting run, he’s no stranger to a clever professional foul. He’s averaged 1.3 fouls per 90 in Europe and is an enticing 7/4 to make two or more in the final.
Spurs have averaged even fewer fouls per 90 (9.2) than United, but curiously, striker Dominic Solanke is a regular offender, committing 1.3 on average. Most of his transgressions come as a result of trying to lead the press and force turnovers, so if the 27-year-old comes flying out of the traps, even money for him to commit two-plus fouls could land fast.
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It’s the André Schürrle show (*yanked offstage*)
Brett Koremenos: Since the internet is a notoriously safe space, I want to share a secret: I have an unhealthy affection for André Schürrle.
In the United States, Schürrle would be described as an irrational confidence player, which, as you can surmise from the words involved, is not a compliment. Late-stage Schürrle at Fulham was the absolute best. His skills were eroding but he still took three mostly terrible shots for the lovable London club (which honestly seemed way lower than my memory suggested) that were desperately trying to stay up during the 2018-19 season.
Schürrle’s indiscriminate shot selection didn’t help that cause, but it was funny (probably not to Fulham fans, though). Losing that crazy German to the Russian league and then retirement was like losing a piece of my heart.
At this point, you may be asking yourself “Why in the hell is this guy talking about Schürrle in a Europa League preview?” It’s because karmic forces have conspired to bring him back into our lives as Alejandro Garnacho. Every time I watch United’s Argentinian winger, I see glimpses of Schürrle.
Garnacho gets under the skin of his managers, shoots from anywhere and plays with a flair that’s intoxicating, but I’m not sure it ultimately helps his team win. If I am going to be forced into watching a final that includes two of the worst five worst teams in the league, I need an irrational confidence player to save me. Garnacho to hit 5-plus shots at 11/4 is the exact type of wager to keep me engaged. With a bet like this, I don’t need to trust them to go in or even hit the target; I just need the lad to let them rip early and often.
In United’s two league matches against Spurs, he’s done exactly that. Garnacho got seven total attempts despite the Red Devils playing a man down for 50 of the 180 minutes he was on the pitch. It’s time to make André proud, Alejandro.
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(Photo of Joshua Zirkzee: Alex Pantling / Getty Images)
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