Knicks vs. Pacers: Five questions ahead of the Eastern Conference Finals, including which matchups work best

The New York Knicks won 51 games in the regular season. The Indiana Pacers, their opponent in the Eastern Conference Finals, won 50. The Knicks are led by a star point guard who seems to have superpowers in crunch time, and they just upset a team that won 60-plus games. Same with the Pacers.

Both New York and Indiana have tons of offensive firepower and have fared better defensively in the playoffs than they did in the regular season (when they both allowed exactly 113.3 points per 100 possessions). Their turnover rates are almost identical on both ends, and neither team takes or attempts tons of 3s.

For all of their similarities, though, the Knicks and Pacers are wildly different in style. Indiana is a deep team that never stops moving — or moving the ball. New York is much more methodical, and it leans on its starters more than any team in the league. This contrast should make for a funky, fascinating series. Before Game 1 tips off on Wednesday at Madison Square Garden, here are five questions about what we might see:

1. Can the Pacers keep the Knicks off the glass?

Indiana is a better team than it was when it made the conference finals last season, and the Knicks’ roster has been revamped since they lost to the Pacers in Game 7 of the second round at MSG. “It’s a different time,” Indiana coach Rick Carlisle told reporters Saturday. “The dynamics are a lot different.” If there is one thing that remains the same, though, it is that New York is capable of dominating games on the glass, like it did in its three wins against the Pacers last May.

This isn’t as much of an issue when the Knicks have their starters on the floor. As soon as Mitchell Robinson checks into the game, though, watch out. In Robinson’s 222 playoff minutes, they have rebounded 39.3% of their missed shots. (For context, the Houston Rockets rebounded a league-best 36.3% of their misses this season.)

For a team that made it to the conference finals, New York has been relatively inefficient offensively during the playoffs. After offensive rebounds, though, it has scored 131.8 points per 100 possessions and made 24 of its 48 3-point attempts, per pbpstats.com.

“Their rebounding is a daunting problem,” Carlisle told reporters.

It’s not just that offensive rebounding is a way for the Knicks to juice their offense. It’s a way to slow down Indiana’s. If the Pacers have to send everybody to the glass, no one can leak out in transition. Indiana was bludgeoned on the boards in its one loss against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round, and the coaching staff made defensive rebounding a point of emphasis before it knew which team it would be facing in the conference finals.

“If we can try to hold them to one possession as much as we can, rebound and run, we’ll feel good,” Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton told reporters Monday.

Indiana was a slightly below-average defensive rebounding team during the regular season, and it was worse than that against Cleveland. The Pacers improved as that series went on, though, and, if last season’s series against New York is any indication, they will try to offset the Knicks’ offensive rebounding by crashing the glass themselves.

“It’s going to be a constant physical battle in there, and we’re going to need to be ready,” Carlisle told reporters Monday.

2. Can New York’s defense do what it did against Boston?

Since the night they eliminated the Celtics, the Knicks have been saying that the second round was good preparation for what’s next.

“The last two games of the Boston series, without [Jayson] Tatum, they were moving the ball a little bit faster, they were running quicker,” New York wing Josh Hart told reporters Monday. “It forced us to communicate at a higher level, and I think that’s something that can help us going into this series against Indiana.”

The Knicks switched more against the Celtics than they did all season. The goal was to stay out of rotation as much as possible and lure Boston into stagnant isolation play. They will surely try to do the same against the Pacers.

 “[Their ballhandlers] are all crafty in their own way, and they’re willing to be aggressive and willing to get off the ball as well,” Knicks wing Mikal Bridges said. “When you play a team like that, it’s tough to put two on the ball ’cause they’ll make the right play every single time and that’s how unselfish they are.”

New York found success against the Celtics in part because of its execution: everybody was physical on the ball, and Bridges, Hart and OG Anunoby made their presence felt in the gaps. Some of Boston’s issues, though, were its own fault. Possessions went nowhere because it took too long to initiate the first action. Others failed because they didn’t even bother running a second action. Indiana isn’t necessarily a better offensive team than the Celtics — it was less efficient than Boston during the regular season — but it is a significantly faster one. It’s a better passing team, too, largely thanks to the genius of Haliburton.

The way the Pacers move, they are much less likely to let the Knicks off the hook for switching into mismatches and stationing defenders in the gaps. Their offense is a blur of ghost screens and misdirection, and their identity is based on moving the ball and playing in the flow.

“They’re going to run, they’re going to play fast on makes and misses and that’s just in their DNA,” Brunson told reporters Monday.

Against this offense, New York will inevitably make mistakes. It’s about limiting the occasions in which Haliburton rejecting a screen or Pascal Siakam slipping a screen results in a full-scale defensive breakdown.

“Nothing’s going to be perfect, but our talk and our energy and everything has to be consistent,” Brunson said.

The Knicks’ transition defense will be tested. Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns‘ individual defense will be tested, too. And if they’re not willing to switch those guys onto Haliburton, then they’re going to have to figure out what coverage leaves them least vulnerable.

3. How will Indiana match up defensively?

During the regular season, the Pacers elected not to put a wing on Towns and switch the Towns-Brunson pick-and-rolls. In related news, Towns had a 30-point game against them in November and a 40-point game against them in February.

Will Indiana change things up in Game 1 of the series or only make that adjustment if it needs to? If center Myles Turner doesn’t take the Towns matchup, then does it fall to Siakam or Aaron Nesmith? If Turner is roaming off Hart, then who is Haliburton guarding?

There is also the matter of who guards Brunson. In last year’s series, Andrew Nembhard started out as his primary defender, but Nesmith took on that role from Game 3 onward. Generally speaking, the Pacers did better with Nesmith on him, but that coincided with Anunoby getting hurt and the Knicks playing spacing-starved lineups for long stretches. This version of the Knicks is healthy, and they have Towns at center now.

“I think it’s a lot more perimeter shooting on this team,” Nesmith told reporters Tuesday.

Nesmith is bigger, stronger and more physical than Nembhard. If Nesmith can provide resistance against Brunson without getting in foul trouble, it would be a massive win for Indiana. There is an argument, though, to go back to Nembhard: he’s a crafty defender who can stay in front of Brunson, keep him out of the paint and force jumpers. The problem is that Brunson is more than comfortable taking those jumpers.

“Brunson’s a master at creating angles and he has uncanny ability to create space and shots,” Carlisle told reporters Saturday. “In the history of the game, it’s very difficult to think of somebody quite like him.”

Regardless of who’s guarding Brunson, the Pacers need to keep him off the free-throw line. And just like they will target Brunson on the other end, they need to be ready for the Knicks to target Haliburton. If Haliburton is on Hart, then they’re going to have to deal with Hart making plays in the pocket (and crashing the glass). If he’s on Bridges, then they’re activating a weapon they didn’t face last year — Bridges is a crafty screener who knows how to slip into open spaces and has a deadly midrange game. If he’s on Anunoby, he could get overpowered one-on-one.

All of this gets more interesting when Indiana goes to its bench. I wonder, for example, if forward Jarace Walker could earn more minutes than he got against the Cavs. In theory, he has the strength to battle Towns and the quickness to switch onto Brunson.

4. Can the Pacers wear New York down?

Indiana isn’t afraid to go 11 deep in a playoff game. It is also very much aware that the Knicks are on the other end of the spectrum. The plan is to run them ragged.

“Our second group’s gotta continue to be who they are, not worry about who’s in front of them necessarily, just continue to play the way they do, fly, keep the pace in the game,” Haliburton told reporters Monday. “The wear-down effect, like we keep talking about. T.J. [McConnell] and those guys picking up full-court. Continuing our pace within our offense. If they’re keeping their guys on the floor, keep playing the way we do. And then when our first group gets back in there, keep it going.”

If New York’s staters are going to play 36-40 minutes, then the Pacers want them to be 36-40 grueling minutes. They want to “make it as difficult as possible for them on both ends and get guys tired,” McConnell told reporters Monday.

In last season’s series, McConnell gave the Knicks all sorts of problems and Benedict Mathurin (who scored 38 points against them in November) wasn’t even available. Obi Toppin and Ben Sheppard are the kinds of players who can swing playoff games, and Thomas Bryant gave Indiana good minutes against Cleveland.

“We feel like we have the best bench in the NBA,” Haliburton told reporters.

If this is a long series — and it projects to be — then the Pacers are counting on being the fresher team at the end of it. New York, meanwhile, is counting on its top guys continuing to hold up. Maybe Indiana’s second unit won’t be as effective as usual when it’s going up against three of the Knicks’ starters. Maybe it won’t be a war of attrition this time.

“When guys are tired, ask for a sub,” Hart said. 

5. Does Thibodeau have any surprises in store?

New York may have different personnel this season, but coach Tom Thibodeau “doesn’t change his offense much,” Haliburton said. “He doesn’t change their defensive concepts much. It’s very, you know, the way he wants to do it. He’s old school, I think, in that way.”

Thibodeau is definitely not known for making radical adjustments. He did not experiment with weird lineups during the regular season, and he has consistently preached the same stuff at his various coaching stops. That said, the Knicks went from conventional pick-and-roll coverage against the Pistons in the first round to a much more switch-heavy approach against Boston.

“I think the last two series shows his ability to adapt and change when necessary,” Hart said.

If the conference finals demand more changes, will Thibodeau make them?

Specifically, I wonder if the Knicks will be willing to change their starting lineup, which struggled for the vast majority of the Celtics series. If they want to put five shooters on the floor, they could put Miles McBride in Hart’s place, but that lineup has logged only seven minutes in the playoffs. If they want to find more minutes for Robinson, they could put him in Hart’s place, but that lineup has also logged only seven minutes in the playoffs (and only one minute against Boston).

Would New York be comfortable throwing a zone out there for a few minutes if need be? In theory, this could protect the Knicks’ weaker defenders and help them protect the rim. But they virtually never do this.