Iowa football 2025: Win total, Big Ten outlook, and whether offensive upgrades finally pay off

Can Iowa finally field a competent offense in 2025? The Hawkeyes think they have their quarterback in FCS transfer Mark Gronowski, but there have been false hopes under center before. Expert David Eickholt from Hawkeye Insider joined Bud Elliott on the Cover 3 College Football Summer School series to break down what success looks like for Iowa this fall with those offensive upgrades.

What are the stakes for Iowa in 2025?

Iowa found out competing for a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game was much more difficult without divisions following conference expansion. Expectations have reset now that the Hawkeyes cannot rely on the cushion of the weaker Big Ten West, but that has not changed the steady approach under long-time coach Kirk Ferentz. Fixing the offense continues to be the hot topic in Iowa City, where the Hawkeyes have not produced a top-35 scoring unit since 2008 (!!). The arrival of FCS national champion quarterback Mark Gronowski gives Iowa hope that its offensive identity might finally evolve.

“I think vibes are relatively high,” Eickholt said. “I think if Iowa doesn’t land Mark Gronowski from South Dakota State, I think they’re at a completely different point. But they addressed him in the portal. They got Sam Phillips from Chattanooga, looks like he could be a deep threat and add some real speed to that wide receiver room. (Offensive coordinator) Tim Lester has flat out said, they want to redo the passing offense.”

Some of those changes showed up in the spring, but Gronowski was held out as he recovered from shoulder surgery. His return in fall camp is critical for an offense that has long been Iowa’s Achilles’ heel.

Breakout player everybody needs to know

Although Gronowski is a dual-threat quarterback, his talents are less impactful if Iowa does not have the weapons to stretch the field. So, which receiver could become the first Hawkeye to top more than 420 yards in a season since 2019?

“I’m looking at Reece Vander Zee,” Eickholt said. “I think this is the first true ‘X’ they’ve had probably since Brandon Smith (2017-2020). Vander Zee kind of broke out early on last season, had a pair of touchdowns in Iowa’s first game. And the real thing is had to adjust to the physicality of college football. He was about 6-4, 205. … He’s added 15 pounds. He’s 100% healthy.”

Leading receiver Jacob Gill is back after hauling in team-highs with 35 catches and 411 yards last season, but the hope is Vander Zee can emerge as a go-to target.

Win total outlook

The projected win total for Iowa is 7.5, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. The Hawkeyes have won at least eight games (including postseason) in every full season since 2015 — excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. The bad news: Iowa faces three of the four Big Ten teams that reached the College Football Playoff last season. The good news: all three matchups against Indiana, Oregon and Penn State are at Kinnick Stadium in 2025.

“I think they pull off one big upset in Kinnick,” Eickholt said. “Maybe reclaim some of that ‘Kinnick at Night’ talk, which we’ve talked about countless times over the past 15 teams. They’re going to have ample opportunities. I don’t think they’re going to be in conference championship contention. I don’t think they’re going to be in playoff contention, barring a major change and the defense upholding their own standard.”

Iowa has the ninth-best odds (+4500) to win the Big Ten Championship Game this season.

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