J.J. McCarthy, roster health and other ingredients key to Vikings success in 2025

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Bruce Buffer voice: It’s … tiiiiiiimmmmme! 

Next week, for the first time since last fall, quarterback J.J. McCarthy will work out in a competitive environment. The Minnesota Vikings will begin organized team activities on Wednesday. They’ll continue for several weeks before three days of mandatory minicamp beginning June 10.

This will be the first opportunity to assess the roster ahead of the 2025 season. In an attempt to set the stage, here are five key ingredients for the Vikings to put together a successful season that matches fans’ high hopes:

McCarthy’s play will be massive

Not too long ago, I asked a colleague for the top five key ingredients to a winning season in Minnesota. Their answer: “McCarthy’s knee, McCarthy’s arm, McCarthy’s feet, McCarthy’s eyes and McCarthy’s mind.” And that’s not just hyperbole.

Elite quarterback play remains the most important requirement in achieving sustained success. In fact, over the last three seasons, the team that posted the higher passing EPA (a metric accounting for success on a play-by-play basis) in games won 77 percent of the time, according to TruMedia. Quarterbacks have the heaviest hand in turnover margin. Quarterbacks control the pace. The position’s impact on the final result is why most of the questions coach Kevin O’Connell will have to answer in the next few months will revolve around McCarthy.

But there are plenty of reasons for optimism. First and foremost, McCarthy impressed the coaching staff last fall in training camp. After he showed good processing speed and accuracy, the team planned to increase his first-team reps following his preseason showing against the Las Vegas Raiders.

Second, and maybe just as important, the Vikings have produced three years of stellar quarterback infrastructure. The starting quarterback has not been consistent since O’Connell arrived in 2022 — from Kirk Cousins the first two years to Sam Darnold last season —  but the statistics have been. Minnesota has thrown for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns in each of the last three seasons. The more advanced efficiency data is nearly identical from year to year.

It’s hard to imagine, but McCarthy will be taking the reins with an even stronger supporting cast than Cousins or Darnold had. Minnesota overhauled all three interior offensive line spots and added a more bruising running back in Jordan Mason. Unlike last year, tight end T.J. Hockenson should begin the season healthy. McCarthy does not have to do all of the heavy lifting. Any production close to what the Vikings have gotten in the last few years will make for a fun fall ride.

The importance of roster health

The way the Vikings view player health and performance might be the most underrated improvement made during O’Connell’s time in Minnesota. It’s not just that the players have mostly stayed healthy. It’s more that the franchise cares deeply about the staff and processes for the players, expecting that will give them an advantage.

Tyler Williams, who heads the team’s player health and performance staff, is constantly exploring the sports science sphere. In past years, the Vikings have plucked other staffers like Dan Ridenour and Chad Bari, both of whom have expertise in biomechanics and data-backed player tracking, from the college ranks. And there’s a great deal of belief in Williams’ department.

“More and more every year,” O’Connell joked in March at the NFL’s annual league meetings, “it’s, like, ‘Ah, Tyler and those guys, they got ‘em. We’re going to be just fine.’ They’ve proven, time and time again, that they’re world-class down there with what they do.”

Minnesota ranked 15th in adjusted games lost from injuries in 2023 and 10th in ‘24, according to Aaron Schatz of For The Numbers. The Vikings defense ranked as the fourth-healthiest defensive unit in the league last season. It may not be as easy to hover in a similar spot in 2025. Not only is an already-old Vikings roster a year older, but many of the team’s highest-profile additions (Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen) have also navigated serious injuries in recent years.

There are concerns with almost every position group. What will left tackle Christian Darrisaw look like in his return from a torn ACL? Will receiver Jalen Nailor duplicate last season’s good string of health? Can linebacker Blake Cashman stay healthy? How about running back Aaron Jones?

The hopes of every team hinge on injuries, but that’ll be an essential factor in the Vikings reaching their ceiling.

Rushing effectiveness in short yardage must improve

For the purposes of this conversation, let’s define “short yardage” as 3 yards or fewer to reach a first down. NFL teams typically convert at least 60 percent of the time in these situations. Unsurprisingly, the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles were the best in these instances over the last three seasons.

The Vikings ranked below average. On fourth down, Minnesota was unsurprisingly near the bottom. And no NFL team has run the ball fewer times than the Vikings amid these downs and distances.

O’Connell, a former quarterback, loves to throw the football, but he’s not passing solely because it’s his preference. He has called throws in these situations because he’s mindful of what gives his team the best chance of getting a first down. If the interior of your offensive line cannot displace defenders from the line of scrimmage, and if your running backs aren’t big enough to batter away behind them, converting via the ground game becomes a difficult task.

Minnesota’s staff has brainstormed different strategies. The Vikings could use fullback C.J. Ham more, or they could even position Hockenson under center. The Vikings signed block-first tight end Josh Oliver. They’ve toyed with run schemes involving more pullers. None of this creativity turned into a long-term fix, however, which explains this spring’s most important pursuit: getting better up front.

It is still going to be incumbent on O’Connell, offensive coordinator Wes Phillips, offensive line coach Chris Kuper and run game coordinator Curtis Modkins to design a short-yardage rushing attack that can confound defenses. At long last, though, Minnesota possesses the necessary components to extend drives and relieve pressure on a defense that will benefit from less time on the field.

The secondary has little room for error

How much faith do you have in Theo Jackson and Isaiah Rodgers? If you reside on the rose-colored end of the spectrum, you’ll have close counterparts on the Vikings staff.

Minnesota could’ve used its first-round pick on a safety or cornerback. It could’ve used any of its five picks on either position. That the Vikings didn’t is a reflection of their feelings. Minnesota could still pursue a free agent at either position, so it’s not as if the current depth chart is set in stone. But for now, Jackson and Rodgers have largely unimpeded paths to bigger roles than they’ve ever had.

A vaunted pass rush should help the secondary’s cause. Edge rushers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel wowed last season. Infusing the trenches with Allen and Hargrave should make for more havoc in one-on-one matchups. The less time the opposing quarterback has to throw, the less time the secondary will have to cover. Betting on this effect may be why the Vikings have so much faith in Jackson and Rodgers, but the play of those two will be integral for Brian Flores’ defense to remain dominant.

Special teams have to be better

This group never gets the attention it deserves. Teams rarely win because of special teams, but they certainly can lose games because of special teams. Besides, with as much parity as there is in the NFL, winning on the margins is paramount.

Minnesota’s special teams have ranked near the bottom of the league in DVOA, an all-encompassing efficiency metric, over the last three seasons. Kicker Greg Joseph’s inconsistency in 2022 and ‘23 did not help the cause. Minnesota also has the NFL’s lowest percentage of punts downed inside the 10-yard line since 2022, according to TruMedia. The Vikings also have averaged the fewest yards per punt return during this span. Their average starting field position after kickoffs ranks 31st.

Almost every special teams category provides an opportunity for improvement. The Vikings will be relying heavily on second-year kicker Will Reichard. Undrafted free agent Silas Bolden could ignite the Vikings’ return possibilities. Punter Ryan Wright should have to compete with undrafted signee Oscar Chapman to keep his spot. The Vikings’ expectations are too high not to take advantage of any potential edges.

(Photo: Adam Bettcher / Getty Images)

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