NFL Draft: QB1 at this early stage is Indiana’s (yes, Indiana’s) Fernando Mendoza, who has a world of potential

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Fernando Mendoza, fresh off transferring to the Indiana Hoosiers from California, topped my QB rankings (with an Arch Manning-sized caveat) as I put together my too-early 2026 NFL Draft big board. Mendoza, who had previously started 19 games behind center at Cal, will join what was an explosive offense in 2024 (Indiana ranked fourth in FEI offense rating in 2024) that returns NFL prospect wide receiver Elijah Sarratt and a slew of transfers up front.

A perceived top quarterback prospect ending up at Indiana, who despite their playoff appearance last season is still generally considered a football middleweight, might cause some pause. But Mendoza reportedly received interest from several top programs, and deservedly so. Why Mendoza picked Indiana makes more sense when you look at coaching (more on that later). Why top programs, meanwhile, showed interest in him despite underwhelming box scores numbers makes more sense as you look into what Mendoza is and how he plays.

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First and foremost, Mendoza checks the box for size at the position. Listed at 6-foot-5, 225 pounds, Mendoza has long limbs, but he already has good size and a frame that he can grow into even more. Watching Mendoza play, what first pops off the screen is the zip he can put on the football. Every throw is available in the playbook. His long levers don’t elongate his operation, opening up quick game throws and packaged plays like bubbles and flats. He can push the ball outside the numbers with ease and can maintain his accuracy even as he drives the football, opening up downfield concepts and intermediate throws.

That accuracy really becomes evident as you watch Mendoza complete throw after throw on Cal’s countless RPOs (run-pass options) and when he has to throw off-platform. While his arm is plenty strong enough to attack all areas of the field, Cal often used RPO and play action concepts to help shore up the talent disadvantage they had up front. This helped keep their offense from being a travesty, but it also often kept the ceiling down of what Mendoza is capable of. Or at least they weren’t able to tap into it on a consistent basis.

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But despite the less-than-ideal circumstances, there was still plenty to take away and plenty to like from what Mendoza showed at Berkley. His ball placement is firmly very good; Mendoza already shows real deal accuracy with an understanding of leverage to throw his teammates open and/or away from defenders to shield them from a pass break-up or big hit, which will help him navigate the jump from college open to NFL open. Back shoulders are a real possibility for receivers because of Mendoza’s feel. Covered quick game routes are now efficient gains because Mendoza aims low and away. It’s not always perfect, but Mendoza’s accuracy is definitely notable.

He has a strong arm, but Mendoza will try to maximize it with how early he gets rid of the football so he can use more touch and placement. He’ll throw the ball even before his receiver is out of their break — and before the defender can even react to what’s happening.

Mendoza is a good athlete that can keep his long legs in a balanced position to throw time and time again. He is a consistent thrower on the move and can create a bit with his legs, too. His twitchiness as an athlete shows up with how quickly he can get into a throwing position after a ball fake or on a(nother) Cal RPO. He shows off some real creativity as a thrower, too, figuring out ways to complete the simple throws with changing arm slots or putting a different trajectory on the ball.

There are already mature aspects to Mendoza’s game outside of his arm talent, too. He makes the correct decision at a high rate, and even with his mistakes, I can mostly understand the process of how he got there. He was also excellent on third and fourth down last season, when he got to display his awareness for defensive looks and his ability to find an answer in true passing situations.

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Or at least an answer of least resistance.

Mendoza is tough — and also knows his limitations

These are the kind of plays that make Mendoza so promising. High-end throws to various parts of the field when the defense knows you’re throwing the football. Constantly making the right decision when the defense is daring you to find an answer (if there even is an answer) in under two seconds. Mendoza’s lack of fear showing up as he stares down another pass rusher and pushes the football past the sticks are things that translate to the next level.

Mendoza is a tough player. He might slide when going down as a runner, but he will stand in the pocket and take hit after hit if his answer for the problem calls for it. He also has athleticism, at least enough, to create just enough out of structure and give plays a fighting chance to succeed. That’s an absolute prerequisite to success to quarterback play at the next level.

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On top of the competence and pure toughness that Mendoza showed on passing downs, there were other intangibles like pre-snap communication and understanding game and clock situations that offered glimpses of Mendoza’s grasp of an offense. (Related: He was committed to Yale before switching to Cal when coming out of high school.) He was also deadly in two-minute situations at the end of halves, with an understanding of when to balance aggression and patience on true dropbacks when the Cal offense finally unshackled him from the confines of another ball fake.

As tough as Mendoza is, he could stand to add some more play strength to help himself out. He also took a beating at Cal and was injured, or at least hurt enough, to get knocked out of multiple games that I reviewed in 2024. He is a redshirt junior this season that will turn 22 during the fall, so I am optimistic that he will be able to add more bulk. He’s not an overwhelming athlete, but what’s most important is he knows that. Mendoza wants to stand and deliver, like a springier and more creative Jared Goff (another former Cal quarterback!) or the player that I think Mendoza most favorably compares to: Matt Ryan.

Mendoza gets sacked too much, but how much of it is on him?

The biggest negative with Mendoza is that he has been sacked at a way too high of a rate so far in college (9.4% in 2024). Quarterbacks definitely have an influence on sacks, but the situation around the quarterback — whether it be the offensive line, auxiliary blockers, or scheme — are still significant pieces of the sack (and blame/credit) pie.

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With Mendoza, the situation at Cal definitely had a significant impact on his final sack tally. (Funnily enough, at least to me, Goff had to deal with a similar woeful protection situation back in his college days.) I do think Mendoza will always take sacks at a slightly higher rate because of his preference to win from the pocket, but the Golden Bears’ protection plan and execution were an absolute mess when he was there. Linemen taking turns losing instantly and allowing another pressure, bad snaps, running backs getting absolutely shredded by blitzers, or sometimes just looking in the wrong direction altogether.

The pass catchers contributed to some of the pressures and sacks as well. Whether it was a botched RPO, or a receiver getting jammed out of bounds, Mendoza often had to keep his head above septic waters. While there were times I would prefer that he would start adlibbing and extending the play a bit earlier, not because he doesn’t understand how to progress through plays but because his protection was generally so unreliable, he often would figure out some sort of answer.

Cal’s reliance on RPOs, like a Madden player spamming the same couple of plays, would sometimes leave Mendoza without any viable answers despite “reading” the play out properly. Whether it was a snuffed out receiver on the outside or just a better defensive answer throughout, there were times that Mendoza just didn’t have anything viable and would end up eating a sack or having to throw something back shoulder because pressure was coming and he had to do something. Even on plays as relatively simple as RPOs, it was nice seeing Mendoza be able to execute and find different answers, including his own legs, on the plays that would leave other quarterbacks dead in the water.

Fernando Mendoza + Indiana could = fireworks

While the circumstances at Cal were not conducive to an effective offense (and Mendoza’s middling box score stats reflect that), his advanced stats point to something more going on underneath the hood.

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I do think Mendoza’s talent will be more evident in his new surroundings in Bloomington, mainly because he gets to play with better teammates (although Cal tight end Jack Endries, who transferred to Texas, is a very good player) but also because he gets to join an offense overseen by head coach Curt Cignetti. Mendoza’s brother Alberto also being on the roster surely helped Indiana land him, but Mendoza has even said in interviews that he wanted to go to Indiana because of the coaching he would receive under Cignetti and the success of the previous quarterbacks he’s coached.

Mendoza’s talent, along with his high football IQ, in an offense that pushes all the right buttons in a smorgasbord scheme has the potential for real fireworks. The fact that there is at least one real pass catcher in Sarratt furthers the intrigue, and adds to my bullishness.

So much can change. I mean, it’s May, with training camps still more than two months away, and there are several talented quarterbacks that I also currently have stacked highly. LaNorris Sellers was right behind Mendoza in my rankings, Arch Manning is lurking, and Garrett Nussmeier and Cade Klubnik also made my top 25 in this class. On top of that, there are other talented passers that sit just outside my initial list that could easily ascend.

But the combination of arm talent, smarts, and a situation that is palpably better puts Mendoza in pole position, at least for me, as the race for QB1 in the 2026 draft begins.

This news was originally published on this post .

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