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It’s here. It’s time. This weekend, Sheffield United face Sunderland in a contest dubbed “the richest game in football,” worth an estimated £220 million to the victor.
Under Wembley Stadium’s magnificent arch, one team will achieve promotion to the Premier League, while the other will stare distantly at the prospect of another campaign in England’s second tier.
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Let’s run the rule over what to expect and apply a betting lens as we go, picking out intriguing wagers along the way.
There’s a clear favourite — and rightly so
As is often the case, the 2024/25 Championship table roughly split itself into groups. Three teams emerged as candidates for the top two (and therefore automatic promotion), another cluster became playoff hopefuls, and those below accepted mid-table mediocrity or battled relegation.
Sheffield United were in the first group. The final table may suggest otherwise — they finished on 90 points, 10 off the top two — but as recently as April 7, they were top of the league. They hit a rut in form at just the wrong time and fell behind Leeds United and Burnley.
Sunderland were in the second group — the playoff hopefuls. In late November, they dropped from second to fourth, then just…stayed there for six months. At no point in 2025 did they look like an automatic promotion candidate. If anything, they looked more likely to drop out of the top six, given they ended the season with an astonishing five straight losses.
With that in mind, it’s absolutely fair that Sheffield United are the bookmakers’ favourites. Not only were they the better side over 46 games, but also made light work of their playoff semi-final, beating Bristol City 6-0 on aggregate to breeze into the showpiece event.
Sunderland, meanwhile, did it the hard way. Régis Le Bris did brilliantly to coax his team out of their losing streak stupor to beat Coventry City away from home 2-1 in the semi-final first leg, but then required an epic 122nd-minute equaliser from Dan Ballard to book a ticket to Wembley.
⏱️ 10.32pm
Exactly one week ago. A city erupted. pic.twitter.com/2Jp92Qa1wm
— Sunderland AFC (@SunderlandAFC) May 20, 2025
It’s probably important to take note of that resilience and determination. These qualities are vital on the big stage and could serve Sunderland well — if not in victory, then at least in levelling the playing field and making this a long, difficult afternoon for their opponents.
This a key consideration when betting, as this match has the potential to go to extra time and/or penalties. For reference, three of the last 10 playoff finals have gone to the full 120 minutes, and two were decided by spot kicks. On paper, this year’s edition has the ingredients to follow suit.
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Hume and Hamer draw the betting focus
Neither of these teams are built on total possession dominance, so don’t expect the game to fall into a distinct attack vs defence pattern. Still, it’s fair to assume that there will be periods of pressure that Sunderland, in particular, will have to weather — and we can identify bets that suit this.
The first revolves around Black Cats right-back Trai Hume. The Northern Irishman was right in the thick of the action across both semi-final legs, as Coventry City seemed to target his flank. As a result, he ended up with seven tackles and three fouls across the two games.
He’s certainly not one to shirk a challenge or pass up a sly tug of a shirt, and he’ll be pitted against Sheffield United’s excellent left-sided combination of Harrison Burrows and Gustavo Hamer, which will prove quite the challenge. Hume to commit two-plus fouls is priced at 7/5, which looks like good value.
Speaking of Hamer, he’s poised to be a difference-maker in this tie.
If Sunderland do spend periods defending the box and heading balls clear, the Blades’ No 8 will have no hesitation in slamming them back towards goal. He’s taken 95 shots this season, many of which have come from outside the box. He’s priced at 10/11 for one-plus shot on target or 4/1 for two-plus. Given he’s hardly shy when it comes to letting rip, this looks a good bet.
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(Photo of Daniel Ballard: George Wood / Getty Images)
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