The Chicago Cubs lead the majors in runs scored (293) this season and rank fifth in home runs (69) heading into the Friday MLB schedule. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki and Kyle Tucker have hit 12 homers each for the Cubs, while three other teammates have hit at least seven. The Cubs will face Reds starting pitcher Hunter Greene, who has allowed seven homers in eight starts. Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark is one of the most home run-friendly parks in the league, so targeting players in that game could be a profitable decision with MLB HR bets. Tucker (+290) and Suzuki (+360) have the shortest HR odds in that matchup, but our model is actually eyeing Michael Busch instead.
Any first-time users interested in putting together MLB home run picks today can also enhance their experience with the latest DraftKings promo code or Fanatics Sportsbook promo code, just to name a few. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks and betting strategy.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 27.75 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 45 days after hitting one MLB home run prop the last three days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Friday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.
Best MLB home run picks for Friday, May 23:
Michael Busch, Cubs (+550)
Busch quietly has seven home runs for the Cubs this season, even though he does not get the notoriety of some of the other players in the lineup. He hit 21 homers last year, so he has established himself as a consistent power hitter. Busch has an .876 OPS against right-handed pitchers compared to a .515 OPS against southpaws. With Greene coming off the injured list for Cincinnati, this is a strong spot for Busch to go yard.
“Left-handed bats have fared better against Greene than righties this season and have 5 of the 7 HRs that he has allowed,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “Greene coming off the IL could give hitters an advantage after not seeing MLB hitters consistently in two weeks.”
Pete Alonso, Mets (+320)
Alonso is in a bit of a slump by his standards, as his last home run came on May 5 at Arizona. He still has a .292 batting average and .931 OPS this season though, and he has gone yard nine times. The 30-year-old is facing Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw, who has been dealing with injuries over the past few seasons and allowed five earned runs in his season debut last week.
“Alonso is just 1 for 7 in his career against Clayton Kershaw, but its clear the injuries have taken a toll on Kershaw over the past few seasons, so I wouldn’t read too much into those prior results,” Fetner said. The model would set Alonso’s line at +290 today. FanDuel has the best price at +320, and new users can get even more value with a FanDuel promo code.
Cody Bellinger, Yankees (+340)
The Yankees lead the majors in home runs (84) this season, with Aaron Judge hitting 16 of them. Bellinger ranks fourth on the team with eight homers, but three of them have come in his last five games. He is facing Rockies starting pitcher Tanner Gordon, who has allowed 10 homers in just 40.2 career innings pitched. Gordon is being called up from Triple-A Albuquerque due to Chase Dollander’s forearm injury.
“Bellinger is swinging a hot bat and now has the opportunity to hit in the very batter friendly Coors Park,” Fetner said. “Bellinger is hitting .333 with a 1.003 OPS in the month of May.” The model sets the line at +320 and FanDuel is offering the best price at +340.
Where to bet MLB props on Friday
Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Friday:
| Sportsbook | Bonus offer | Promo code |
|---|---|---|
|
Bet $1, double your winnings next 10 bets |
CBSDYW |
|
|
Up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet loses |
CBSSPORTS |
|
|
FanDuel |
Bet $5, Get $200 in bonus bets if your first bet wins |
No code required |
|
DraftKings |
Bet $5, Get $200 in bonus bets instantly |
No code required |
|
Fanatics promo code |
Bet and get up to $1,000 in No Sweat Bets |
No code required |
|
bet365 |
Bet $5, Get $150 in bonus bets win or lose |
CBSBET365 |
More MLB picks for Friday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Friday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 118-59 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Jeff Hochman is 10-6 over his last 16 MLB picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Friday.
This news was originally published on this post .
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