Welcome to the Opening Line, where we examine ways to have a little fun while identifying intriguing wagers on the upcoming weekend’s biggest events. Today, we’ll dive into the Conference Finals in both the NBA and NHL, a rematch of last year’s NLCS, the wild finale for the Premier League season and enjoy our annual trip to the Brickyard for the Indy 500. Let’s get to it!
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(All odds referenced as of Friday morning.)
Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks
Friday, 8 p.m. ET
TNT
The bet: Aaron Nesmith Over 13.5 Points + Assists -105
Occasionally, it’s important we take a moment to really appreciate the greatness of sports. (And you clearly have spare time if you are reading me.) Where else are you going to experience something as bizarre as witnessing two sides contest such an intense series that it inspired an actual WWE storyline, only to subsequently re-engage in a real-life clash even more unrealistic than its fake-life counterpart.
The Pacers, the clear heels, shrugged off 45 minutes of severe attacks by the fan favorites, only to silence the crowd with a reality-defying rally, topped off by Tyrese Haliburton’s dribbling backwards to attempt a game-winner, which is now a signature finisher on par with the Stone-Cold Stunner. Now throw in the comically cinematic bounce and hitting the choking celebration in front of the very legend (a commentator sitting ringside – I mean courtside) who made it famous three decades ago after authoring virtually the same collapse in the same building in a playoff game featuring the same two teams. Combined, you have a way better argument that the league is scripted than the Mavs winning the lottery. If someone submitted this whole plot to Christopher Nolan as a sequel to “Inception,” he would reject it as “a bit much.”
Everything now seems possible in this series. Game 2 being reffed by the evil Hebner twin? Sure, why not. The league introducing a 5th quarter that only ends when someone climbs a ladder and grabs the Bob Cousy Trophy suspended from the jumbotron? I can see it. Aaron Nesmith following up one of the great, random three minutes stretches in NBA history with less than 13.5 Points + Assists? Actually, that’s unthinkable. He’ll always be remembered for his Game 1 performance, where he retroactively made NBA Jam look more realistic than 2K, but he’s actually covered this line in 9 out his last 10 games and enters Game 2 with the greenest light imaginable. Even if the fire has gone out, we are getting great odds that the script writers let him clear these modest marks Friday.
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Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars
Friday at 8:08 p.m. ET
ESPN
The bet: Oilers to Win +105
Somewhere on the North American map (likely around Buffalo) there exists a kind of equator where the conversations about the epic Game 1 collapse on Wednesday night refers to totally different things. Above the line, you’ll draw gasps of disbelief that the Oilers gave up three power play goals in the first six minutes of the 3rd period to turn a comfortable 3-1 margin into a shocking 4-3 deficit. Even Kenny Pickett didn’t suffer this much from being short-handed.
It was genuinely stunning given how well the Oilers have been playing, winning eight of their last nine games this season and 13 straight playoff games when leading after two periods, dating back to last year’s run to the Finals. So you have to like getting plus money they bounce back and ride their top-end talent to victory over the Dallas depth. Edmonton completely dominated that game prior to their Grand Theft Auto-esque crime spree and after holding the Stars to 0-14 on the power play during last year’s playoffs, a bit of reversion was due. Now that the bill has been settled, expect them to even up the series and take care of some of your bills with this bet.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets
Friday, 7:10 p.m. ET, Saturday at 7:15 p.m. ET, Sunday at 7 p.m. ET
Apple TV+, FOX, ESPN
The bet: Mets Win Series -115
I look forward to football season, when we can cover important games without worrying about NYC teams for a while. Somehow we aren’t even touching the biggest New York contest this weekend according to 80% of my house, with the defending champ Liberty taking on the people’s champ Caitlin Clark Saturday (Liberty moneyline, by the way. Sorry kids.)
But we can’t ignore the current kings visiting Queens, as the two best teams in the National League (both last year and this year) prepare for battle again. It’s hard to bet against the Dodgers, but the Mets are 6-1 in home series this season and they have a massive pitching advantage this weekend. I’m pretty sure the Friday night Ghostbusters tour includes the famous firehouse, the New York Public Library and a special visit to Clayton Kershaw’s career. After the Mets win the opener, they have two starters comfortably sporting top-25 ERAs versus a struggling Tony Gonsolin and something called Landon Knack. Perhaps the Dodgers outslug them twice, but we’ll take our chances that the Mets’ mound advantage leads to paydirt.
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Nottingham Forest vs. Chelsea
Sunday, 11 a.m. ET
USA Network
The bet: Both Teams to Score and Either Team to Win +125
If you love two hours of high-stakes chaos, the final day of the Premier League is for you. With its simultaneous kickoffs and hundreds of millions of dollars shifting hands with every goal, it makes watching “Mission: Impossible” feel like lounging on Cloud Nine after taking an Ambien in comparison.
With both the league title and the relegation positions already set, the focus this year falls squarely on the competition for the extremely lucrative Champions League spots. Five teams find themselves fighting for three places, with two of them going head-to-head on Sunday. Chelsea enter the game in control of their own fate and with a victory, guarantee their return to the competition they’ve won twice. Nottingham Forest will probably need a little help, but a win puts them squarely in the mix. You know what likely dooms both teams? A draw. Aston Villa gets extremely lucky, as I don’t know what the European equivalent of Cancun is, but I guarantee the Manchester United players do and they have their bags fully packed.
Before the chants of “1,2,3 Ibiza!” have finished echoing around Old Trafford, Forest and Chelsea will know they need all three points to have a realistic chance of qualifying. So expect a wide open game where both teams throw caution to the wind to chase riches and glory. In that situation, this is always one of the most fun bets for the neutral, as you can enjoy the fireworks and align your interest with everyone on the pitch. If you fail to cash, you’ll at least enjoy plenty of company as both sides join you as a loser.
Indianapolis 500
Sunday, noon ET
Fox
The bet: Any American to Win +140
In the spirit of our disclosures about hockey and horse racing, add IndyCar to the list of things I don’t follow on a daily basis. I feel pretty good about the decision though, as it’s a sport that reaches its absolute apex when an adult gets filthy with a bunch of milk. As a grown man, I’m pretty sure if a waitress asked what I wanted at a restaurant and I replied “milk,” she would have to check with her manager like a dealer looking over at a pit boss before allowing you to hit on 19.
But to each their own and I’m not here to judge. I’m here to have some fun and you know what’s a really good time? Cheering on America during Memorial Day weekend. Is it a good bet? Maybe not, as Americans have only won two of the last eight races and those wins have now come under suspicion. But if you want to throw down $5 before the barbecue begins and reserve the right to holler at the last couple of laps, you are getting 14 bites at the apple pie here. Plus, maybe the Knicks will win you the bet, as they are sure to never let their foot off the gas in Indy again.
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Toby Mergler is a freelance contributor to the Athletic and is the co-founder of the Extra Points Podcast Network. He’s hosted podcasts for ESPN and served as a columnist for Vice Sports, MLB.com and ESPN Page 2. He would tell you where he got his degrees, but the school offered him a sweetheart deal to actually erase his name, image and likeness.
(Top photo: Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
This news was originally published on this post .
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