Premier League top-five betting: Who will secure European football on the final weekend?

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It’s here. You’ve made it through all the plot twists and turmoil to the final weekend of the 2024/25 Premier League season. The title race has been decided, and we know who’s going down.

But we still have five teams contending for a coveted spot in next year’s Champions League. Let’s look at each team’s odds, their recent form and whether there’s any betting value to be found.

Manchester City

• Odds to finish in the top five: 1/25
• Final fixture: Away to Fulham

In unsettling news for the rest of England: City are back, and the numbers are there to prove it. Since Feb. 1, the Citizens have been the second-best team in non-penalty goal expected goal differential (non-penalty xGD), trailing only league-champion Liverpool, per Understat data.

Erling Haaland has recently returned, but the lynchpin of Pep Guardiola’s side, Rodri, is finally back. Having come on as a substitute against Bournemouth, the Spanish midfield maestro could be set to feature in City’s must-win match at Craven Cottage. That’s bad news for Fulham or anyone looking to see the sky blue side of Manchester suffer the embarrassment of playing in the Europa League. City’s xG differential per 90 minutes with Rodri on the pitch this season is an absurd plus-2.15 in his 155 minutes.

Given that Fulham have been sputtering to the finish line as is, it’s unlikely they’ll help City’s competitors get a Champions League spot by delivering a win on Sunday. Betting 1/25 odds would be rather boring, but City are currently at 9/4 to win next year’s title. If the end of this season is any indication, that’s the bet with the most value.

Newcastle

• Odds to finish in the top five: 1/5
• Final fixture: Everton at home

Speaking of clubs that have been quite good during the past few months, the Magpies are heading into the final weekend on a roll with the easiest matchup among the top five contenders. While City currently boast the second-best non-penalty xGD since February 1st, Newcastle are right behind them in third. Eddie Howe’s men have racked up seven wins in their past 10 league matches and now encounter an Everton side languishing in 13th place.

The data is still murky, but clubs that enter the final matches of the season without anything at stake, tend to perform slightly worse and are involved in more open matches — games being slightly more open when Alexander Isak’s side need three points seems like a bad combination for any Everton upset bid. Newcastle’s odds to finish in the top five probably aren’t worth it, but over 3.5 goals in their match at 7/5 odds just might be.

Chelsea

• Odds to finish in the top five: 8/13
• Final fixture: Away to Nottingham Forest

Whereas Newcastle and City have ascended, Chelsea have slowly descended from good to mid. As Kim McCauley expertly explained at the Transfer Flow, each progressive month manager Enzo Maresca’s principles have taken hold has resulted in a corresponding dip in the team’s performance. Chelsea aren’t bad by any stretch, but they’ve stopped looking like a bonafide Champions League-level side. Since that Feb. 1 cut-off, the Blues sit right between Everton and Wolves in non-penalty xG differential.

The slide from clear top-five contenders towards the mid-table teams is not a great trend when your prospects come down to the last game of the season. Given Aston Villa’s form (which we’ll get to in a second) and Newcastle’s easy matchup, Chelsea need to win against Nottingham Forest to ensure their spot in Europe next season. A win with their plus-20 goal differential advantage should do the trick — unless the Villans break all kinds of league scoring records.

Yet, with a tricky away fixture against a side still holding onto their own top-five aspirations, Chelsea fans are desperately hoping their club’s slide toward mediocrity doesn’t cost them when it matters most. I wouldn’t find much value in 8/13 odds very often and definitely wouldn’t when it comes to a Chelsea team heading in the wrong direction.

Aston Villa

• Odds to finish in the top five: 6/4
• Final fixture: Away to Manchester United

Since mid-February, the Villans have ranked third in Understat’s expected points model. Thanks in large part to a player cast aside by their coming opponent, Villa have been a Champions League-calibre club for the past three months. The loss of Marcus Rashford to a hamstring injury (he also wouldn’t have been able to play due to loan rules anyway) is going to be an issue for a matchup of this magnitude.

Rashford ranked first on Villa in shot-creating actions and carries into the box. He also ranked fourth on the team in passes into the penalty area. The 27-year-old’s playmaking skills were a huge driver of the Villans’ improved performance late in the season.

But like Newcastle, Villa have gotten lucky with their final-day matchup. Manchester United sit just 13th in those same expected points rankings since their former star started plying his trade in Birmingham. A new manager and some new faces have not stopped the Red Devils’ descent into mundanity.

Additionally, United are coming off a devastating 1-0 loss to Spurs in Wednesday’s Europa League final. A middling side coming into a match exhausted, dejected and with nothing to play for should be enough to make up for the loss of Rashford, and make Villa’s 6/4 odds to finish in the top five even more enticing.

Nottingham Forest

• Odds to finish in the top five: 4/1
• Final fixture: Chelsea at home

Except when it comes to Lionel Messi, xG remains undefeated. All season long, Forest’s underlying numbers screamed at us that the club — and their talisman, Chris Wood — were massively overperforming. It’s very rare in the world of football to see variance quickly level things out. Once sitting firmly in the driver’s seat for a Champions League spot, Forest now need to be good and lucky to have any shot at finishing in the top five on the final day.

The good part is going to be the hardest aspect to rediscover. Since Jan. 1, only four clubs — Tottenham, Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton — have a worse non-penalty xG differential than Forest. If you’re looking for a reason why the club has managed only two wins in the past eight matches, you’ve found it. This slide hasn’t been unlucky, it’s simply been a bad team finding its level.

If you’re a hopeful Forest fan or someone wanting a reason to bet on the biggest underdog, there is one source for optimism. The Tricky Trees have been a drastically different side at home than away from the City Ground. Forest have a positive 2.94 non-penalty xG differential as hosts but a negative 6.38 differential on the road. That nearly nine-goal difference in their underlying performance is the same as Brentford in ninth and Spurs in 17th.

Those 4/1 odds are fun, and those who believe in the power of the City Ground will like them even more. But I’m sceptical they can make a bad team good — even for just one match.

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(Photo of Cole Palmer: George Wood / Getty Images)

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