While the title and relegation might already be decided in the Premier League, Sunday’s action will be crucial to the teams vying for a place in the Champions League.
Liverpool and Arsenal have already secured their berth in next season’s competition. But Manchester City, Newcastle, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest are all competing for the three remaining English slots for next year.
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Each team will have their plans for the upcoming summer transfer window, but how would they be impacted by qualifying for the Champions League? And what would happen if they didn’t make it?
The Athletic’s club experts have taken a look below.
Manchester City
What would they do if they qualify for the Champions League?
They had a quiet summer last year but they spent £183million ($135m) in January — the highest-ever mid-season spend behind Chelsea’s £275million two years ago — which was exacerbated by their sudden collapse in November.
The additions of Omar Marmoush, Nico Gonzalez, Abdukodir Khusanov and Vitor Reis allowed them to make a head start on a rebuild they knew was coming at the end of the season.
The departure of Kevin De Bruyne and possibly other high-profile players like Ederson will free up wages, but City will continue to buy those on the up rather than established world-class players in an attempt to keep wages at a sustainable level.
This week, Pep Guardiola went against earlier comments this season about the need for bigger squads to deal with the heavy schedule and returned to his long-term view by saying he “will quit” if he is not able to maintain a tighter squad as it becomes too difficult to keep every player motivated.
It may well be the case that City see more outgoings, but they already have a good amount of headroom in the market to spend heavily again. A goalkeeper, full-back and midfielder to replace some of the creativity lost by De Bruyne is on the menu.
City will need to replace De Bruyne’s creativity (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Would it change if they missed out?
Having not been without Champions League football since 2009-10, it would be a major shock to the system.
But City’s finances are currently in solid health with The Athletic’s BookKeeper projecting they had a PSR headroom of around £324 million. So, even if they did miss out and drop into the Europa League, City would still be able to invest to ensure this was a one-off.
Jordan Campbell
Newcastle United
What would they do if they qualify for the Champions League?
After three windows in which PSR has prevented Newcastle from strengthening their first XI, the restrictive nature of those financial limitations will further ease with Champions League qualification. While they would not be removed entirely, Newcastle would have a greater capacity to spend on transfer fees and wages.
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The most important piece of business Newcastle will hope to do is try and tie in-demand Alexander Isak down to an extended contract — and those conversations will be easier if they are in Europe’s premier competition.
Additional Champions League revenue will also increase the likelihood of Newcastle signing the right-sided forward, right-sided centre-back, goalkeeper and striker they want as a minimum. Marquee additions across all four positions is unlikely, given budgetary constraints, but two or more may arrive if Newcastle are in the Champions League.
Brentford forward Bryan Mbeumo, Bournemouth winger Antoine Semenyo, Ipswich Town striker Liam Delap, Crystal Palace defender Marc Guehi and Burnley goalkeeper James Trafford are among the players who have featured during transfer discussions, though a shortlist of targets will only be finalised once Newcastle’s European fate is confirmed.
Despite links to Manchester City’s Jack Grealish, Newcastle are not interested in the 29-year-old. Newcastle have two quality left-wingers in Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes, and do not need another, especially on wages beyond even their highest earner.
Semenyo has featured in Newcastle transfer discussions (Glyn Kirk/AFP via Getty Images)
Would it change if they missed out?
To an extent, yes. Newcastle have been shortening their long lists of targets, but will only definitively decide upon who they will move for once they know which European competition they will be playing in.
Newcastle’s budget would be reduced in the Europa League (or Conference League, although it is now highly unlikely they will be in the third-tier tournament), but they do still have the capacity to spend.
Perversely, Newcastle may require a greater number of additions in this eventuality, because they do not currently possess the necessary depth to significantly rotate for a Thursday-Sunday playing schedule.
Chris Waugh
Chelsea
What would they do if they qualify for the Champions League?
Chelsea have already earmarked signing a striker and right-footed winger at the very least, and this will not change. Another centre-back, while not a certainty, is a possibility if a certain calibre of player is available for the right price. This was shown with their pursuit of Dean Huijsen, who ended up choosing Real Madrid.
But obviously, being in the Champions League will increase the budget, as well as Chelsea’s appeal, to go after their primary targets.
Chelsea already feel they are an attractive proposition, as has been shown with the amount of business they have been able to do over the past two years without being in Europe’s premier club competition.
But Chelsea see being in the Champions League as putting them firmly in the top tier of destinations and able to compete for signings with the biggest clubs in Europe even more.
Cole Palmer’s return to form has come at exactly the right time (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
Would it change if they missed out?
In terms of the positions they want to strengthen, no. But it will inevitably be a harder task to convince a player to join them over a team that is in the Champions League. The funds available will be smaller, too.
In saying that, it will not affect the amount of sales planned. A lot of exits have been planned anyway to trim the size of the group down — there are several players who will be returning from loan too — so that will bring in revenue.
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There are no clauses in a contract where a player can be bought if Chelsea are not in the Champions League. Most of the senior squad are on long-term deals, and the idea is to keep them together.
Chelsea have got some new signings coming anyway in Estevao Willian, Kendry Paez (albeit possibly loaned to Strasbourg), Dario Essugo and Mamadou Sarr, plus Andrey Santos is expected to be part of the setup after impressing on loan at Strasbourg.
Chelsea’s latest financial accounts show the wage bill has been cut by over £50million. Participating in the Club World Cup, where the winners can earn £97m, will help compensate for missing out on Champions League revenue.
So Chelsea will still have money to spend in the market, and they can still point to players like Cole Palmer as an example of how a move to Stamford Bridge can boost your career.
Simon Johnson
Aston Villa
What would they do if they qualify for the Champions League?
Aston Villa do not factor Champions League revenue and prestige into the financial plan every year, but it would help significantly.
Last season was the first time Villa had qualified for the Champions League since the competition format was introduced in 1992. There is an understanding that they are not part of the furniture yet, nor should they be, but the rapid rate of growth under Unai Emery means Villa want to compete among the elite.
And to do so consistently, regular Champions League income is paramount. Qualifying for any kind of European competition is, as Emery describes, “a joy,” but only the Champions League offers the greenest shoots of growth.
Villa will need to sell to compensate for losses that total over £200million in the previous two yearly accounts, regardless of whether they qualify for the Champions League. They boast large assets in their squad, which other clubs have an interest in, so, in this regard, selling would not be an issue. Crucially, though, qualification would then enable recruitment staff to be more ambitious in who they want to sign and the financial outlay they can offer, both in salaries and fees.
Villa are ambitious (Darren Staples/AFP via Getty Images)
Would it change if they missed out?
Who Villa sell is the key sticking point. No Champions League would likely result in a bigger sale and, in turn, a player viewed as more important to Emery’s project. In short, Villa’s squad for next season will be shaped by what happens on Sunday.
All contract discussions and several players’ futures are on hold until Villa know whether they have qualified. This is partly due to Villa having clarity on their budget for renewals and incomings but also it would have a role in whether certain players who have Champions League aspirations decide to commit their longer-term future at the club.
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Without participation in Europe’s blue chip competition, Villa’s squad size will have to be reduced and wage bill — which stands at 91 per cent — will have to be cut more dramatically than intended to comply with UEFA’s rule of 70 per cent limit of club turnover being spent on wages. This would lead to the calibre of player Villa are aiming to recruit likely being from a slightly lower starting point.
Jacob Tanswell
Nottingham Forest
What would they do if they qualify for the Champions League?
Nottingham Forest plan to strengthen again this summer, regardless of whether they qualify for the Champions League, as they will embark on their first European campaign — in one competition or another — in three decades.
But Champions League football would change the dynamic in several ways. Forest know that would mean they have to add even more quality to their squad, to back up what is already a very strong starting XI. The boost to the finances that the competition would deliver would also give them just a little more freedom to do so.
Forest are on the cusp of European qualification for the first time in three decades (Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images)
Would it change if they missed out?
Forest believe they are in a good position, with regard to PSR. There is no absolute requirement for them to sell any key players this summer — even if Morgan Gibbs-White’s future will remain in the balance amid continued interest from Manchester City.
If they end up playing in the Europa League or even the Conference League, there is an understanding that they need to strengthen. This would give Nuno Espirito Santo the resources he requires to help the team compete on more than one front.
The most significant change would be that Forest would not have the very enticing lure of Champions League football to help them land their targets.
Paul Taylor
(Top photos: Getty Images)
This news was originally published on this post .
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