Aston Villa’s 2-0 defeat to Manchester United at Old Trafford on Sunday changed the entire outlook of their season, and potentially their summer.
The result meant Unai Emery’s side missed out on Champions League qualification by the narrowest of margins on just goal difference. The club now faces the prospect of reduced revenues, a tighter transfer budget, and the possibility of high-profile departures to balance the books.
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On the latest episode of “The Athletic FC Podcast”, Ayo Akinwolere was joined by The Athletic’s Villa reporter Jacob Tanswell and broadcaster Dan Bardell to discuss how missing out on the top five could alter the club’s summer plans.
A partial transcript has been edited for clarity and length. The full episode is available in “The Athletic FC Podcast” feed on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Ayo: Jacob, how big of a sliding doors moment is Villa missing out on the Champions League, especially when it comes to their summer plans? Because when you’re making a pitch to sign a player, Champions League football does make it a lot sweeter to come and play for you doesn’t it?
Jacob: Yeah absolutely, it’s massive. And just for context, Villa managed to total £100million from this season’s Champions League participation because they got to the quarter-finals, so not having that is going to leave a hole in the budget. And given that Villa have already lost £200m in the last two end-of-year accounts, until revenues catch up with other teams around them, the only way they can cover that deficit is through player sales. They know they would have had to sell regardless of Champions League qualification, but the calibre and the bracket of players they have to sell now is probably a little bit greater. And probably through gritted teeth they’ll have to sell a couple of players.
What’s good for Villa is that they’ve got a lot of assets, and they’ve got a lot of players that other clubs are interested in. Boubacar Kamara still hasn’t signed a new contract, and there have been talks about his contract for a good while. But although they’re progressing, he’s been a player who was waiting to see if Villa got into the Champions League. Lucas Digne is another one, because ideally Villa would love to keep two left-backs as Digne and Ian Maatsen are great competition. But from the conversations I’ve heard, Villa don’t feel like they can stockpile in certain areas and feel unfairly compromised compared to a team like Manchester United for example. They can’t have two quality players competing for the same position because they simply haven’t got the finances for it. So although Digne has been a really good servant, he’s on a pretty high salary and he’ll have to go. There’s also been interest from Saudi Arabia in Leon Bailey, then you’ve got Jacob Ramsey and Ollie Watkins as well. All these guys might not all go, but all their futures are now uncertain.
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So Villa are heading into the summer not really knowing their squad. Emery said that if he could have the same squad next year, he would sleep far better and he would love that. But Villa know they have to rejig and revamp, so it’s going to be a very busy window again, like it was in January and like it was in the previous summer window. They have to navigate PSR, they’ve got to lower the Squad Cost to comply with the rules, and they’ve got to cover the deficit, otherwise they’ll face potential point sanctions from the Premier League. They’ve got all these things going on whilst trying to follow Emery’s vision, because Emery wants the squad to improve every single season. But given that you could potentially be losing Emi Martinez, Kamara, and one of Watkins or Morgan Rogers, improving the squad when such massive players have to go is going to be very difficult.
Ayo: Dan, Jacob just laid out there some of the potential exits at Villa this summer. You even think of Douglas Luiz, and Moussa Diaby going not too long ago as well. These are some top, top players. Does it worry you that this is the tightrope you walk on as an Aston Villa fan, or as a club, in that it’s imperative that you get to the next level otherwise you have to sell? Surely that lack of consistency in and out of every season must be quite tricky to take.
Dan: Yeah it makes life very difficult, and I think the rules are pretty harsh on an upwardly mobile team like Villa who are trying to build and trying to do things properly to challenge the elite, and also have owners who really want to put money in but are hamstrung by the rules themselves. You missed out Jhon Duran there on that list of players that Villa sold, so it’s not like they haven’t sold some big players already. They’ve sold so many good players for really big money, and that was maybe part of the problem in the first half of the season. They had to sell players, re-jig the squad, and almost had to try and build on the fly, and it took time for things to come together. Then ultimately it didn’t really work and they had to get other players in January.
But I agree with Emery in that if I were told, ‘You’re going to keep this squad that you’ve got now, but you’re not going to buy anyone,’ I’d be quite happy with that because Villa won eight of their last ten Premier League games. So I would be really confident with this group of players having a whole pre-season and a full season together, that they’d be able to challenge towards the top. But that’s not going to happen now, and it might be even worse because they’ve not got Champions League football. Jacob was talking there about Kamara waiting to see what competition they’re in, he’s a huge asset and a really underrated player. He’s genuinely one of the best No. 6s in Europe and such a pivotal part of how we play, but we might lose him now.
So you can’t underestimate how big not qualifying for the Champions League is for Villa because there was going to be flux anyway. And now, as Jacob says, there’s going to be even more and it’s going to be a really difficult summer. That could then affect the start of the next season. But on the face of it, there are two avenues into the Champions League next season, which might not be a bad thing. You’d think they have a good chance of winning the Europa League, and obviously the Premier League offers another avenue. So next season will be an exciting season. But if you’ve got to revamp your whole squad again in the summer, it makes the start very difficult. Along with balancing and managing everything that comes with that.
You can listen to full episodes of The Athletic FC Podcast for free on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, and watch on YouTube.
(Top Photo: Warren Little/Getty Images)
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