Study finds elite recruits see drop in draft odds after transferring

The NCAA transfer portal has not yet been in place a decade but its effect on college football is almost too difficult to measure. The portal, in conjunction with the ever-changing landscape of NIL, has come to define — for better or worse — the current climate of college athletics.

In analyzing seven years worth of transfer data as it relates to former highly coveted high school recruits, a number of trends have developed. Not surprisingly, quarterbacks transfer more often than any other position group. In fact, seven of 247Sports’ top eight quarterbacks in the 2023 recruiting class have transferred.

And while a transferring player might earn more playing time or collect a bigger paycheck somewhere else, the data suggests changing schools may negatively affect their NFL Draft outlook.

Non-transfers more likely to be drafted

Among players considered to be elite coming out of high school (Top247) who have had at least four seasons in college from the 2018 class and beyond, 307 have been drafted. Of those 307 draft picks, 61 of them were transfers. 

Transfers from the 2018 through 2021 Top247 were drafted at a rate of 11.4%.

Non-transfers from the same Top247 classes were drafted 53.6% of the time.

Non-transfers also tend to be further ahead when it comes to being three-and-done college players. There were 25 former Top247 recruits drafted from the 2022 class this past April, only three of them (Travis Hunter, Walter Nolen, Matthew Golden) were transfers. 

Also of note: Only two of the 199 multi-time transfers from the 2018 to 2022 Top247 classes have been drafted so far. Tyler Shough played for Oregon, Texas Tech and Louisville with much of his off-field movement coming as a result of injuries that led to others taking his job. Tyler Baron, meanwhile, did technically transfer twice. But he did so in the same offseason going from Tennessee to Louisville to Miami in a matter of five months.

Players tend to transfer for a reason. There are exceptions like high-quality players bolting because of a coaching change or looking for a pay raise. But mostly, Top247 players tend to stay put unless they’re looking for additional playing time or got in some sort of trouble.

The real transfer success stories tend to be those players jumping up from the G5 or FCS levels. That’s the path you saw 2025 first-round picks Cam Ward (Incarnate Word to Washington State to Miami) and Josh Simmons (San Diego State to Ohio State) take.

Transfers by position

Top247 quarterbacks transfer more than any other position at a rate of 69.8% between the 2018 and 2023 class; the 2024 class was not included in this data set as it’s still too early to get a broad picture of that classes’ transfer rate.

Comparatively, offensive linemen and defensive tackles transfer at the lowest rate. 

Only one quarterback can play for each team and more than 60% of Power Four starters last season were former transfer quarterbacks. They don’t tend to wait around. 

Talking to coaches and personnel staffers, the skill positions tend to be the easiest to find in the portal. There are always wide receivers, running backs and defensive backs in abundance.

Conversely, offensive and defensive linemen are the most difficult players to acquire in the portal. There are two reasons for this: 1. Linemen are developmental players. It can take years for a tackle to mature. Thus, they tend to transfer less frequently. 2. Given how much developmental investment goes into linemen on either side of the line of scrimmage, schools are usually willing to pay whatever it takes to keep their success stories. 

There’s a reason why there were 36 wide receivers ranked as a four-star from the 2025 transfer rankings compared to just 22 offensive tackles. There are just fewer quality offensive tackles available than any other position.