Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Report: Robert Garcia eyes saves for Rangers, Daniel Palencia rising in Cubs’ bullpen

The 10 closer scenarios raising the most questions right now aren’t what they should be. Repeated struggles from unexpected sources have brought tension to teams like the Athletics, Blue Jays, and Braves, thereby demanding attention from me.

That means tabling some of our longest-running headaches in this space, which may be for the best. It’s not any clearer who will split saves with Tanner Scott now that all of the Dodgers‘ high-priced alternatives are on the IL. Devin Williams doesn’t seem any closer to reclaiming the closer role from Luke Weaver. Will Vest is looking more and more like the Tigers closer, receiving only occasional interference from Tommy Kahnle. Meanwhile, Jordan Romano has more or less secured the role for the Phillies.

We’re basically spinning our wheels with those four closers scenarios, even if they aren’t 100 percent solid yet, so let’s take stock of what’s happening elsewhere.

Note: “Pecking order” refers to rosterability in Fantasy and not necessarily who’s first in line for saves (though it’s usually one and the same).

I’m torn between moving Luke Jackson behind Robert Garcia and keeping him ahead. He was obviously manager Bruce Bochy’s first choice for the closer role, and Bochy has only said he’s “backed off” the right-hander, not outright removed him. Here’s the exact quote, from The Dallas Morning news:

“It doesn’t mean he’s not going to close some games, but I told him, ‘I’m going to use you in different parts of the game where we feel like we may need you,'” Bochy said. “With [Chris] Martin down, I just want some flexibility with the matchups that maybe we can have.”

Garcia, though, has recorded the Rangers‘ only two saves since Bochy “backed off” Jackson and his numbers are more befitting those of a closer. It’s also probably not just a coincidence that this “backing off” immediately followed Jackson’s second blown save of the season and a nine-outing stretch in which he put together a 9.53 ERA. He was always a curious choice for the role, and his track record may be coming home to roost now. Meanwhile, Martin’s eventual return — which doesn’t figure to be too far from now — could impede Garcia’s ascendance in a couple ways, the first being that it might free Bochy to return Jackson to the closer role and the second being that Martin himself would make for a better closer than Garcia, particularly since he throws right-handed.

Sort of like the Rangers, I feel like the Cubs could go in three different directions with their ninth-inning role. Unlike the Rangers, I’m putting their initial choice, Ryan Pressly, third in the pecking order. His removal has continued longer than Luke Jackson’s, and it was clearer at the time that something was actually wrong with him. Is it still wrong? Well, his swinging-strike rate has nearly tripled since his removal from the closer role, and he’s gotten back to working higher-leverage situations, including the ninth inning of a tie game Tuesday.

Daniel Palencia is the one who’s notched each of the Cubs’ last three saves, though, and I suspect the reason why he didn’t work the ninth inning of Tuesday’s game was because he had worked the previous two. He’s not quite the bat-misser you want in the role, but he throws hard and has a 1.93 ERA so far. It could work.

I also think there’s a chance Porter Hodge reclaims the role once he’s recovered from a strained oblique. He was the Cubs’ best reliever last year, and he was the first place manager Craig Counsell turned when Pressly lost the job in early May. Stashing Hodge in an IL spot is easy enough in most cases, so in leagues where saves are scarce, I would advise doing so.

Justin Martinez has made two appearances since coming off the IL (shoulder inflammation). The first went poorly. The second went perfectly. While neither was a save situation, the second one may have ensured that his next one will be, judging by these comments from manager Torey Lovullo.

“If we see what we like in the middle of an outing, we’ll be like, ‘OK, here we go,'” Lovullo told Arizona Sports’ Burns & Gambo just before Martinez was activated. “You can tell right away when a guy’s back in his groove and he’s feeling very good.”

It helps that Martinez’s velocity, which dipped a couple miles per hour just before he went on the IL, has been back to normal since returning. It also helps that the Diamondbacks struggled to close out games without him, with Shelby Miller getting the majority of the save chances. Curiously, Miller hasn’t appeared in a game since Martinez returned, so the Diamondbacks have been holding him out for … something. My guess, though, is that Miller’s next appearance will be prior to the ninth.

After giving every indication in his first week on the job that he would depart from his predecessor and use Dennis Santana in the closer role, manager Don Kelly has made an about-face and consistently turned to David Bednar in the ninth, deploying him for three saves in the past eight days. Just as telling is that Santana handled the eighth in each of those instances.

The irony is that for all my insistence Bednar would wind up back in the role, I’m not sure it’s the right move now. Santana’s strikeouts, which were lacking early, have spiked of late, and his 15.0 percent swinging-strike rate suggests there are even more to come. Combining this year and last year, he has a 2.13 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 9.3 K/9 with the Pirates in what amounts to a season’s worth of appearances. Meanwhile, Bednar has remained pretty shaky, allowing at least one run in three of his past seven appearances. I’m now convinced he’s Kelly’s first choice, but I’m less convinced it’ll last.

Kyle Finnegan, who’s once again among the league leaders in saves despite being a shaky closer on a mediocre team, hasn’t appeared in a game since Thursday due to shoulder fatigue. Though imaging was negative, It’s still possible he goes on the IL because you can never be too careful with pitching injuries, and in such a scenario, you might want to know who’s next in line for saves. The Nationals have already tipped their hand in that regard, giving their one save in Finnegan’s absence to Jorge Lopez. It makes sense given that Lopez has been serving as the eighth-inning guy and has a fair amount of closing experience himself. Jose Ferrer also sometimes works the eighth when the situation calls for a left-hander, and the one to dream on, given his former prospect standing and swing-and-miss stuff, is Jackson Rutledge. He’s had trouble throwing strikes, though, and hasn’t exclusively appeared in high-leverage situations.

No other major-leaguer approaches Mason Miller’s 44.4 percent strikeout rate or 17.4 K/9. He’s a distant first in both categories, at least among those who’ve thrown 10 innings or more. Unfortunately, he also has an unsightly 5.79 ERA and 1.39 WHIP after allowing 11 runs, 10 earned, over his past seven appearances, including at least one run in four of them. The strikeouts have remained high during that time and the velocity was normal. The Athletics haven’t expressed concern over struggles yet — understandably, given his immense talent — but those struggles have persisted long enough that his leash may be running short. If Emmanuel Clase and Devin Williams could be removed from the closer role, then so could Miller. Granted, the Athletics don’t have as attractive of an alternative, but Justin Sterner has put together a 1.78 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9 in middle relief and could serve as a viable fill-in should it come to that.

Jeff Hoffman’s situation for the Blue Jays is much like Mason Miller’s for the Athletics. He’s clearly their most talented reliever, as evidenced by his 13.1 K/9, 2.77 xERA, and 2.15 xFIP, but he’s blown so many games lately that it’s hard to keep giving him a pass. More specifically, he’s allowed 13 earned runs over his past nine appearances, spanning seven innings in all, to raise his ERA from 1.10 to 5.79. Notably, manager John Schneider gave Hoffman a vote of confidence after the worst of those outings, a five-run disaster May 13.

“His stuff has been consistent all year, you know?” Schneider said at the time. “He’s done more than his fair share of helping us win games so far. I’ve got nothing but trust in him going forward.”

Granted, Hoffman has blown another save since then, but Schneider turned right back to him for a successful save Monday. And that’s the last we’ve seen of him so far. Chad Green, who filled in as closer over the final three months last year, remains at the ready and is competent enough, if less flashy than Hoffman. Yimi Garcia may have been the preferred choice, having already secured three saves this season, if he hadn’t just gone on the IL with a shoulder impingement. Most likely, the point will be moot, but if Hoffman continues to cost Blue Jays games, they’ll eventually have to consider alternatives, if only temporarily.

Raisel Iglesias has had a long and storied career as a closer, but he hasn’t looked like himself all season, allowing at least one earned run in nearly half of his 21 appearances, including six of his past eight. And unlike Mason Miller and Jeff Hoffman, the underlying numbers say it’s very much deserved. Still, manager Brian Snitker doesn’t seem interested in making a change.

“They haven’t been terrible outings,” Snitker said Saturday, the last time Iglesias appeared in a game. “It’s just been one pitch.”

That one pitch is Iglesias’ slider, which is responsible for five of his seven home runs allowed, not to mention a .583 batting average. It’s also his fourth most-thrown, so he could possibly live without it.

“We’re probably going to need to adjust his pitch selection,” Snitker said. “Because other than that, he’s throwing the ball really well.”

And if it doesn’t work? Well, there isn’t a clear Plan B. Right-hander Pierce Johnson filled in once when Iglesias was unavailable and secured a save. Left-hander Dylan Lee’s save came in extra innings, following one of Iglesias’ blown saves. The two could maybe split chances for a time. Meanwhile, longtime closer Craig Kimbrel has begun to have more success at Triple-A, striking out six and walking none over his past five appearances, but he would be a real long shot.

While Emilio Pagan cruised through his first month as Reds closer, his vulnerability to the long ball has reared its ugly head recently. He’s allowed at least one earned run in five of his past nine outings, raising his ERA from 2.35 to a more familiar 3.96. In fact, that 3.96 mark would actually be his second-best since 2019. It’s why I wasn’t in support of him claiming the role to begin with.

Helping his case is that the entire Reds bullpen has struggled of late. Tony Santillan, the reliable eighth-inning man who Terry Francona implied at the start of the year was the team’s best reliever, has allowed five earned runs in his past five appearances. Luis Mey, an early-May call-up with a closer arsenal, has allowed four earned runs in his past four appearances. Even Graham Ashcraft, who has been billed as a closer-in-training at times this year, has allowed 10 earned runs in his past 10 appearances. It means that Pagan still has some leash to give, but in the long run, I think he’ll give the Reds reason to explore other options.

So all it takes is one save for Ronny Henriquez to move to the top of the pecking order? Given the Marlins‘ stubborn refusal to commit to a closer over the first one-third of a season, yeah, that’s it. And the truth is that Henriquez has made the most sense for a while now. He’s sporting a 1.78 ERA, has by far the best K/9 of any Marlins reliever at 12.4, and boasts a variety of swing-and-miss offerings. It’s just that manager Clayton McCullough never showed any inclination to use him in the role until Sunday. By opening that door, he’s given us permission to embrace the possibility. Maybe he’ll close it right up again by using Henriquez in the sixth inning tomorrow, but … I don’t know. I like that both Anthony Bender and Calvin Faucher preceded Henriquez in Sunday’s game. They’re his clearest rivals for the closer role, so to see them deployed as setup men is (possibly) telling.