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Na 11ª rodada do Brasileirão, a liderança do Palmeiras está ameaçada. Pelo menos, é o que revelam as estatísticas da Bola de Cristal, ferramenta desenvolvida pelo GLOBO em parceria com a UFMG que calcula as probabilidades no torneio. Os dados apontam que o alviverde não é favorito para vencer o Cruzeiro, e que o empate é o cenário mais provável no duelo entre Flamengo e Fortaleza.
No topo da tabela, o Palmeiras, que tem 22 pontos, visita o Cruzeiro (terceiro colocado com 20 pontos) no Mineirão, às 19h30 do domingo. A Bola de Cristal prevê um duelo bem equilibrado, mas uma leve vantagem no favoritismo do time mineiro para vencer a partida: 36,9%, contra 36,6% de chance de vitória do time de Abel Ferreira. O empate aparece como o cenário menos provável, com 26,5% de chance.
Já no Rio de Janeiro, o Flamengo recebe o Fortaleza no domingo às 18h30 no Maracanã, e a Bola de Cristal indica prevê o empate com 50,8% de chance de acontecer. A vitória do rubro-negro é o segundo cenário mais provável, com 36,8% de probabilidade, enquanto um triunfo do Fortaleza tem apenas 12,4% de chance.
A disputa no topo da tabela tem ainda o Bragantino, que enfrenta o Vasco em São Januário às 21h do sábado. Os dados revelam um equilíbrio para as três possibilidades: há um pequeno favoritismo para o cruz-maltino ganhar a partida: 34,2%, contra 33,4% de chance de vitória da equipe paulista. E o empate aparece logo em seguida, com 32,5% de probabilidade.
Se as três situações com as maiores probabilidades se confirmarem ao final da rodada, o Cruzeiro será o novo líder do Brasileirão, com 23 pontos. Com os mesmos 22 pontos do Palmeiras, o Flamengo ficaria com o segundo lugar no critério de saldo de gols: tem 15 contra 5 do alviverde, que diminuiria ainda mais com a derrota.
Veja todas as probabilidades da 11ª rodada do Brasileirão
- Cruzeiro x Palmeiras: 36,9% de chance de vitória do Cruzeiro; 26,5% de chance de empate; 36,6% de chance de vitória do Palmeiras
- Flamengo x Fortaleza: 36,8% de chance de vitória do Flamengo; 50,8% de chance de empate/ 12,4% de chance de vitória do Fortaleza
- Vasco x Bragantino: 34,2% de chance de vitória do Vasco; 32,5% de chance de empate; 33,4% de chance de vitória do Bragantino
- Corinthians x Vitória: 41,2% de chance de vitória do Corinthians; 29,4% de chance de empate; 29,5% de chance de vitória do Vitória
- Santos x Botafogo: 36,8% de chance de vitória do Santos; 33,1% de chance de empate; 30,1% de chance de vitória do Botafogo
- Mirassol x Sport: 47,7% de chance de vitória do Mirassol; 35,3% de chance de empate; 17% de chance de vitória do Sport
- Internacional x Fluminense: 34,7% de chance de vitória do Internacional; 41,2% de chance de empate; 24,1% de chance de vitória do Fluminense
- Bahia x São Paulo: 31,8% de chance de vitória do Bahia; 50,1% de chance de empate; 18,1% de chance de vitória do São Paulo
- Ceará x Atlético-MG: 43,1% de chance de vitória do Ceará; 33,2% de chance de empate; 23,7% de chance de vitória do Atlético-MG
- Juventude x Grêmio: 38,8% de chance de vitória do Juventude; 38,6% de chance de empate; 22,6% de chance de vitória do Grêmio
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