Today’s best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Yankees starter against Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees will stage a rematch of last year’s World Series when the teams begin a three-game series on Friday at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. Last season the Dodgers beat the Yankees in five games to win the World Series. This year the teams are poised to make another deep postseason run. Los Angeles (34-22) leads the National League West while New York (35-20) sits atop the American League East.

Max Fried (7-0, 1.29 ERA), who has arguably been the best pitcher in all of baseball this season, is set to take the mound for the Yankees. Meanwhile Tony Gonsolin (2-1, 4.68) will start for the Dodgers.

The top sportsbooks have set Fried’s total strikeout player prop at 4.5 (Over -154, Under +125), while Gonsolin’s also is 4.5 (Over -125, Under +106). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Fried Over 4.5 as a 4.5-star play on its five-star scale and Gonsolin Over 4.5 as a 4-star play.

Fried Over 4.5 is one of the model’s top three pitcher strikeout props on Friday’s 15-game schedule. Of the other two, one is a 5-star play. Here they are:

Casey Mize Over 3.5 strikeouts (-132) vs. Royals (8:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.9 strikeouts

This is the model’s best pitcher strikeout prop for Friday. The 28-year-old Detroit righty (6-1, 2.45) has shown better swing-and-miss stuff this season. He has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in each of his last four starts and six of eight starts overall this season. His K percentage of 21.8 and whiff percentage of 28.4 are the highest of his career, according to Baseball Savant. The model projects 4.9 strikeouts for Mize, which makes the Over a good value at -132.

Seth Lugo Over 4.5 strikeouts (-108) vs. Tigers (8:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.6 strikeouts

Mize’s counterpart on Friday, Lugo (3-4, 3.02), is also a good play per the model. He has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in five of his last seven starts. On Friday he will face a free-swinging Detroit club that has struck out 510 times this season; only the Rockies, Angels and Red Sox have struck out more. He also has been much better at home this season (2.41 ERA) than on the road (4.19).

Max Fried Over 4.5 strikeouts (-154) vs. Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.8 strikeouts

The 31-year-old lefty (7-0, 1.29) has been nearly flawless in his first season with the Yankees, posting the lowest WHIP (0.93) and ERA of any season in his career. Over his last five starts, he has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts each time and is averaging 6.8 strikeouts per start. He also has a history of success against the Dodgers. In 10 career games against Los Angeles, Fried has 70 strikeouts over 56.2 innings (1.24 strikeouts per inning).