Why Lamar Jackson could get $70 million per year, plus ranking 12 teams who could win their first Super Bowl

Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

I’m not sure if we skipped half of May, but it’s somehow the final newsletter of the month, which doesn’t seem possible. The next time we talk will be in June. If it’s June, that means that next month is July and July is when NFL training camps start. And if training camps are starting, that means the season is almost here. And if the season is almost here, that means summer is almost over and it hasn’t even started. 

I don’t want to think about summer being almost over, so let’s get to today’s newsletter. 

As always, here’s your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let’s get to the rundown. 

1. Ranking the 12 teams most likely to win their first Super Bowl

The Super Bowl has existed for 59 years and in that time, a total of 20 different teams have won a Lombardi Trophy, which means there are 12 teams that still have yet to win the NFL’s biggest game. Cody Benjamin decided to take a look at those 12 teams and rank each one of them based on who has the best chance of winning their first Super Bowl this year. 

Let’s take a look at the top four teams on his list: 

1. Bills. “The Bills have made a record-tying four Super Bowls without actually winning one, and their current regime is mirroring that close-call identity, with Josh Allen and Sean McDermott making six straight playoff appearances … and claiming zero AFC titles. … There are fair questions about the level of playmakers on the perimeters — out wide and at cornerback — on this roster, but the Bills will also enjoy a light schedule in 2025, all but demanding another surge into January.”

2. Lions. “Jared Goff may need to find an extra gear in January to reach a second career Super Bowl, but his skill support is still elite, with Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, etc. And Dan Campbell won’t lose his aggressive touch just because Ben Johnson is no longer holding a clipboard for him.”

3. Bengals. “If somehow Zac Taylor can get his team ready to roll out of the gate rather than halfway through the year, the Bengals should return to form as a challenger to the AFC powerhouses.”

4. Texans. “C.J. Stroud quickly went from sterling rookie to shaky second-year starter at quarterback, but a rebound should be in order after Houston reworked his front and added help out wide. The real driving force here is DeMeco Ryans‘ defense, which might be the most imposing unit in the NFL by the end of the year.”

And just in case you’re wondering, Benjamin has the Browns at the bottom of his rankings. Sorry, Cleveland. If you want to see his full list, you can do that here. 

2. Lamar Jackson’s next contract could turn QB market upside down: Why $70 million per year may be possible

Lamar Jackson still has three years left on his contract, but the Ravens are likely going to try to get an extension done in the near future due to the quarterback’s cap hits. In 2025, Jackson’s cap hit is only $43.5 million, which is manageable, but in 2026, that shoots up to $74.5 million. That’s a massive number, and the Ravens are going to have to do something about it. 

So, how much could Jackson end up getting in his next deal? According to former NFL agent Joel Corry, who now works with us here at CBS Sports, Jackson is in line to land a record-setting deal. 

• The number Jackson will be trying to beat. The highest-paid player in the NFL is currently Dak Prescott, who signed a four-year, $240 million extension back in September that is paying him an average of $60 million per year. 
• The number Jackson could target. Since 2022, any quarterback who has reset the market has done so by getting a deal that’s an average of 9.98% higher than the previous deal. Here’s Corry’s take on that stat: “Based on that trend, Jackson can justify $65.5 million to $67 million per year for a contract extension he signs this year. Jackson’s reasonable worst-case scenario should be adjusting his $52 million per year for the 24.2% increase of the salary cap since he signed in 2023. This is approximately $64.5 million per year.” Jackson could be looking at a deal that pays him between $64.5 million and $67 million… but could he get more? 
• How that number could get even higher. If the Ravens aren’t willing to do an extension this year and make Jackson wait until 2026, Corry makes the case that the quarterback could end up asking for as much as $70 million per year. “Jackson should also make it clear to the Ravens that by waiting until next year to do a deal, the growth in the salary cap from 2025 to 2026 will need to be taken into account. For example, if the 2026 salary cap is set at $302.5 million, then the deal would have to be at $70 million per year because that would reflect the 34.56% salary cap inflation from 2023.” 

Head coach John Harbaugh has already said that Jackson will become the “highest-paid player in football” with this next contract, so that seems like a lock. The Ravens will likely try to give Jackson a deal worth $61 million or $62 million per year, but Corry thinks the two-time MVP will end up doing much better. If he gets a new contract in the next few months, a deal between $63 million to $65 million per year seems possible. But if the Ravens kick the can to next season, Jackson might be able to up his asking price to $70 million per year. You can read Corry’s full breakdown of the situation here.  

How long is Lamar Jackson’s Super Bowl window with the Ravens? And will he eventually reach 10,000 rush yards?

Douglas Clawson

3. One undrafted free agent to watch for each team

Being an undrafted free agent is a rough life. You don’t get signed until after the draft and the odds are stacked against you to make the team. However, if NFL history has taught us one thing, it’s that undrafted free agents can end up making some serious contributions on the field. Some of the best players in NFL history fell through the cracks of the draft and didn’t get a shot in the NFL until they were signed as undrafted free agents. 

Players who weren’t originally drafted include Pro Football Hall of Fame quarterbacks like Kurt Warner and Warren Moon. With that in mind, NFL Draft guru Chris Trapasso decided to take a look at one undrafted free agent from each team who could potentially make some noise this year. 

Let’s check out four players on his list: 

• 49ers: RB Corey Kiner. “A former LSU recruit, he averaged 4.1 yards per rush with the Tigers in 2021 before transferring to Cincinnati where he flourished for three seasons. … There is a logjam of runners in San Francisco, and all will start ahead of Kiner on the depth chart. But is there a coach in the NFL who cares less about draft position and/or has more of a propensity to deploy an onslaught of backs than Kyle Shanahan?”
• Commanders: CB Fentrell Cypress II. “Fentrell Cypress II is a man-coverage specialist with the athletic attributes to play that role in the NFL. While not ridiculously long, the former Florida State star is 6-foot-1 and 181 pounds with 4.43-second speed in the 40-yard dash. … Sometimes that natural talent is all a cornerback needs to impress coaches enough to go from undrafted to on the roster in Year 1.”
• Chiefs: WR Elijhah Badger. “He was the most efficient YAC receiver in the country in 2022 and 2023 at Arizona State, and while the volume decreased last season at Florida, he still averaged nearly 21 yards per snag. … The Chiefs aren’t loaded at receiver, and the short-term future is uncertain with Rashee Rice. If anyone can make it work with a talented receiver, it’s Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City’s offense.”
• Bengals: C Seth McLaughlin. “Seth McLaughlin going undrafted was pretty surprising. He played just under 2,400 career snaps at Ohio State and surrendered a mere seven pressures on 290 pass-blocking snaps on the 2024 national-title winning team. … It would be prudent for the Bengals to get McLaughlin a long look this summer as a reserve option on the inside.”

Trapasso hunted down one undrafted free agent for each team, which means he has a list of 28 other players that you can see here. 

4. Ranking the top five preseason games

The NFL officially finalized the 2025 preseason schedule on Thursday and that schedule will consist of 97 games. Now let’s be honest here, unless you’re in a preseason fantasy league, there’s a good chance that you’re NOT going to be watching all 97 games, so I’ve decided to rank the top five games so you can only plan to watch the important ones. 

Let’s check out the top three games in my rankings: 

1. Vikings at Titans — Friday, Aug 22 at 8 p.m. (CBS). This game is ranked at the top because it could give us one of the most compelling quarterback matchups of the preseason: Cam Ward vs. J.J. McCarthy. Ward was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft and this will be the only home game he gets to play during the preseason. As for the Vikings, we’ll finally get a chance to see if the team’s gamble on McCarthy is going to pay off. 

2. Jaguars at Saints — Sunday, Aug. 17 at 1 p.m. (local TV, NFL+). If there’s one player you want to make sure you get to watch at least once this preseason, it’s Travis Hunter. The Jaguars made a massive move in the draft to trade up and get him with the second overall pick. This game is already must-see thanks to Hunter, but it will also be worth watching due to the quarterback battle that’s going on in New Orleans.

3. Colts at Ravens — Thursday, Aug. 7 at 7 p.m. (local TV, NFL+). To me, the most fascinating quarterback battle going down in the NFL this year is the one in Indianapolis. It’s Anthony Richardson vs. Daniel Jones in a battle of the busts, which kind of seems like a suitable name since the loser of this battle is likely going to be hit with the “bust” label for the rest of time.

If you want to see my full rankings, you’ll have to check out my story here. 

5. NFC North win totals: Predicting the over/under for each team in the division

We have another day of over/under predictions coming at you. Over the past week, we’ve taken a look at the over/under totals for 20 of the NFL’s 32 teams. Now we’re adding four more teams to that total by going through the NFC North. 

Cody Benjamin was in charge of making the predictions here. Let’s check out whether he likes the over or the under for each team in the division: 

NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Green Bay Packers
ODDS: Over 9.5 (+105) / Under 9.5 (-125)
LEAN: Under
Cody’s take: “There are two ways to look at the Packers’ 11-6 third-place finish of 2024: 1.) as an indictment o Jordan Love’s reliability, given his frequent bouts of bumps, bruises and forced throws; or 2.) as evidence Green Bay is bound for big things once everyone is healthy, Love included. We’re more of the latter opinion. Love may well have an inner Brett Favre that he cannot shake, but that big-play approach works wonders when he’s upright and well-supported in Matt LaFleur’s system.”

Chicago Bears
ODDS: Over 8.5 (+110) / Under 8.5 (-130)
LEAN: Under 
Cody’s take: “On one hand, the Bears have an indisputably better setup for Caleb Williams … The quarterback now boasts a fortified front featuring All-Pro guard Joe Thuney and a spirited skill group starring DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and rookie Luther Burden III out wide. And then there’s Ben Johnson as the new head coach … And yet the schedule does Chicago no favors: The Bears have one of the toughest slates of 2025, including road dates with heavyweights like the Ravens, Bengals and  Eagles.”

If you want to see how Benjamin feels about the Vikings and Lions, you can get his take on those two teams here. 

6. Extra points: Dolphins have had trade talks with Steelers

This is always a busy time in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that’s happening, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. 

• Steelers trying to acquire Jonnu Smith from Miami. The Steelers have been in discussions with the Dolphins about possibly acquiring tight end Jonnu Smith. If a deal did happen, it would reunite Smith with Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. The two have some serious ties together as Arthur has coached Jonnu for five of the tight end’s eight NFL seasons (four in Tennessee and one in Atlanta). If you want the full details on the trade discussions, we’ve got those here. 
• Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford not interested in the Olympics. The two Super Bowl winning quarterbacks have taken themselves out of the running to be on the U.S. Olympic team for flag football. “I’ll probably leave that to the younger guys,” Mahomes said this week. As for Stafford, he’ll be 40 years old by the time the Olympics start in 2028, so he just doesn’t seem interested. We’ve got the full comments from both players here. 
• Travis Kelce not acting like a player headed into his final year. There’s been a lot of speculation that this could be Travis Kelce’s final year, but he’s not practicing that way so far, according to Patrick Mahomes. “If it’s the last ride, you would never know,” Mahomes said of the 35-year-old Kelce. “The way he’s talking about football, the way he’s talking about working and trying to be even better this year than he was last year.” If you want to read more about Kelce, we’ve got that here. 
• Vikings general manager gets extension. The Vikings are clearly thrilled with how things are going with Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, because they decided to give him a multi-year extension on Friday. Adofo-Mensah’s contract was set to expire after the 2025 season. Since hiring Adofo-Mensah in 2022, the Vikings have gone 34-17 with two playoff appearances in his three years. Adofo-Mensah hired Kevin O’Connell, but he was in charge of signing a 2024 free agency class that helped lead the Vikings to a 14-3 record last season.