In recent years, I released my way-too-early mock draft literally moments after the conclusion of the current draft. In almost every way, it was more of a watchlist than your typical mock draft, mostly because I hadn’t had the time to actually watch and grade players for the upcoming draft cycle. (Aside from those draft-eligible ones who opted to return to school, though realistically, that ends up being around 20-25 names, and maybe only a handful who I might consider top-50 players some 11 months out.)
This time, however, I decided to put off my way-too-early mock draft for a few weeks, which gave me time to watch around 125 players and get a sense for what the 2026 class could look like. And while I’d still refer to this as more watchlist than mock draft, I feel way more comfortable with where I have these players slotted based on their 2024 (and sometimes 2023) tape.
Like every other year in human civilization, the conversation starts with the quarterback. And, yes, Arch Manning is QB1 in the 2026 class. But instead of just penciling his name at the top of the page and worrying about the subsequent 31 picks, I’m working from the assumption that Manning will be at Texas in 2025 and again in 2026. History suggests he may not be in a rush to leave college for the NFL, and barring, say, a Heisman Trophy and a national title, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect Manning to hang around Austin for a couple more years.
And look, if he does decide to declare after the 2025 season, he’ll likely be QB1 and probably the top overall player in the class, too. That’s an easy update.
Plus, without Manning, the QB class gets a lot more interesting. Garrett Nussmeier can be really, really good. So good, in fact, that he’ll look like LSU Joe Burrow. But he also had stretches in 2024 where he looked like down-on-his-luck-in-New England Mac Jones. Which Nuss Bus are you getting? That’s the No. 1 overall question.
Then there’s a group of names who could separate themselves with big seasons: Drew Allar, Cade Klubnik, Fernando Mendoza and LaNorris Sellers all could be in the conversation for top five picks. Penn State’s Allar considered coming out in 2024 and he probably would’ve been a first-rounder; Klubnik made big strides down the stretch for Clemson and returning was in his best interests; Mendoza transferred from Cal to Indiana for 2025 and his tape was impressive; and then there’s Sellers, who is the best athlete of the bunch, has a huge arm, and every SEC edge rusher we talked to at the NFL Scouting Combine couldn’t say enough good things about him. Sellers does need to continue to grow as a passer, but if things click this season, he’ll be among the first players selected.
So, sure, consider this a watchlist if you like. Or, if you prefer, it can be a mock draft. Ultimately, it’s 33 names to know (I had the Jets trade up to No. 32 to grab a QB, and in the spirit of fairness, I also included a pick for the Eagles, who traded out of the first round in this scenario) some two-and-a-half months out from the return of college football.
The 2026 NFL Draft order was determined using the reverse Super Bowl odds from FanDuel Sportsbook
This news was originally published on this post .
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