After belting two more home runs on Sunday, Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber is tied for the MLB lead with 14 home runs and he’ll have idyllic conditions again on Monday. The MLB weather forecast calls for a first-pitch temperature of 77 degrees with the wind blowing straight out to center field at nearly 10 m.p.h. when the Phillies host the Cardinals. The left-handed Schwarber will take on lefty Matthew Liberatore, but the slugger has some of the best reverse-splits in baseball with a 1.252 OPS against left-handed pitching and seven of his 14 home runs against them.
The latest MLB home run odds from FanDuel Sportsbook list Schwarber at +310 to go yard again on Monday. So who are some of the best values to add to your MLB HR parlays tonight? With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 10-5 roll on all top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the season. The model has hit at least one MLB home run prop in five of the last nine days and is up 30.8 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 34 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Sunday. These three picks can also be parlayed for +15109 odds and would pay out $760.44 on a $5 bet at BetMGM.
James Wood, Nationals (+520)
Trading Juan Soto in 2022 was a clear signal that the Nationals were prepping for a complete rebuild, but their timeline is accelerating because Wood, CJ Abrams and Mackenzie Gore (all part of the Soto return) are already producing. Wood debuted in the middle of last season and hit nine home runs in a half-season of action. However, he’s showcasing the power you’d expect from a 6-foot-7, 234-pound frame in 2025, with 10 home runs over his first 41 games.
“Wood has a great matchup today. He is facing righty Grant Holmes who has a high HR/9 rate of 1.8 to start the season. Wood has been destroying right-handed pitchers, and the weather is playing batter friendly,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “Wood is getting excellent value on FanDuel considering the line is as low as +400 on Caesars. We set the line at +430 for Wood to hit a HR.”
Cal Raleigh, Mariners (+360)
After hitting 91 home runs the last three seasons, a power surge surely doesn’t come as a surprise for Raleigh. He’s second in the American League with 12 home runs so far and his .917 OPS would be a career-high. He hasn’t gone yard in his last eight games, but the model thinks there’s value in betting the drought to end with his price surging to +360 at BetMGM.
“Raleigh has a 1.008 OPS vs. RHPs compared to a .721 OPS vs. lefties,” Fetner said. “Although its just a small sample size, Clark Schmidt has been getting crushed vs. left-handed bats this season. Lefties are hitting .318 with a 1.052 OPS against him this season. We set the line for Raleigh to hit a HR at +315.”
Kyle Tucker, Cubs (+575)
Tucker is in line for a sizable payday with free agency looming in 2026 and he’s making it hard for the Cubs (or whoever else) not to oblige. He’s slashing .269/.379/.531 with 10 home runs, 32 RBI and 10 stolen bases over his first 41 games for first-place Chicago. Tucker and the Cubs will take on Cal Quantrill of the Marlins on Monday and he’s 3-for-4 with a home run off Quantrill lifetime.
“The wind is slightly blowing in which is why you can get the price where it’s at, but it’s not the type of game where the wind is playing such a factor that the total is at 6.5,” Fetner said. “We set the line at +400 for Tucker to hit a HR.” Once again, it’s BetMGM with the best price for this MLB HR prop.
More MLB picks for Monday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Monday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 102-51 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Jason La Canfora is 29-19 over his last 48 MLB sides picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Sunday.
This news was originally published on this post .
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