Winners, losers from Aaron Rodgers joining Steelers: DK Metcalf gets boost, Steelers still bad?

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After months of speculation, Aaron Rodgers agreed to sign a one-year deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers and will report for minicamp next week. While the team was never truly worried about missing out on Rodgers according to CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones, it certainly took time, patience and a willingness to deal with at least a little bit of uncertainty.

Rodgers, 41, is coming off a disappointing two-year tenure with the Jets in which he tore his Achilles in Week 1 of 2023 and then struggled for much of 2024. After winning nearly two-thirds of his starts with the Steelers, Rodgers posted just a 6-12 record with New York, and he posted his lowest yards per attempt (6.7) as a starter last season while taking 40 sacks, his most since 2018.

Still, he is a four-time MVP, someone who, even far from his peak powers, slots in as the best quarterback the Steelers have had since Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement. Even amid a lost 2024 season, he showed flashes of “vintage Rodgers” later in the year, highlighted by a four-touchdown performance in Week 18 against the Dolphins.

Rodgers’ plan to sign has ripple effects across the Steelers and the league as a whole, both now and in the future. Here are winners and losers from the move:

Winner: The Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers, frankly, were desperate for Rodgers to sign. Yes, there were talks of contingency plans, but the Steelers had been after Rodgers for months, with every media appearance or every report on his plans holding major sway for an organization that has long prided itself on stability.

Pittsburgh moved on from both of its 2024 quarterbacks — Russell Wilson and Justin Fields — and had three quarterbacks on its roster: career backups Mason Rudolph and Skylar Thompson and sixth-round rookie Will Howard. That would have inarguably classified Pittsburgh as one of the worst quarterback rooms, if not the worst quarterback room, in the NFL.

Rodgers is no longer a premier quarterback, but he is a clear upgrade over what Pittsburgh had before Thursday and perhaps even above Wilson. Though both quarterbacks had similar success rates and expected points added per dropback in 2024, Rodgers avoids negative plays at a much higher rate — Wilson had an 11.1% negative play rate last year compared to Rodgers’ 8.8% — and is much more willing to play on schedule and throw over the middle, vital parts of Arthur Smith’s offense.

Rodgers is another year removed from a significant injury. He’s entering a system that should, fundamentally, be more sound than the Jets’ underwhelming, scattershot system, run first by Rodgers’ old pal Nathaniel Hackett and then, after the Robert Saleh firing, by Todd Downing. The biggest difference between the Jets and the Steelers is stability. The Jets haven’t had it for a decade-plus. The Steelers have. That should be good for Rodgers.

Loser: The Pittsburgh Steelers

If the Steelers being both a winner and a loser from this signing doesn’t summarize the Rodgers experience, nothing will. Rodgers, the player, is in clear decline. Beyond the stats, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ No. 18 quarterback last season, which doesn’t sound too bad until you realize Wilson was 15th. A big issue for Wilson was his all-or-nothing approach that relied heavily on the deep ball. As a result, he finished 28th in success rate. That was still one spot better than Rodgers.

Beyond Rodgers the player is a significant injury history — he limped through parts of 2024 — and his sometimes-frustrating personality. The Jets appeased Rodgers with former coaches and teammates. He didn’t deliver. He took a long time to decide his future and now faces an abbreviated offseason learning a new system. He is at the very least a big personality. He will have to fit into Mike Tomlin’s well-established culture. That’s not saying it can’t be done. But there are questions — and potentially headaches — ahead.

One of the earliest signs pointing Rodgers to Pittsburgh was an informal throwing session with DK Metcalf in late March. Metcalf, who was traded from the Seahawks and promptly signed a five-year, $150 million extension, projects as the type of No. 1 receiver Rodgers has thrived with. A supercharged athlete with speed to burn, Metcalf should feature heavily in this offense on in-breaking routes, too.

Moreover, the Steelers showed a willingness to match Metcalf, 27, with a quarterback who has worked with big-bodied, physically gifted perimeter receivers his entire career. Metcalf has little competition for targets in a relatively scarce wide receiver room, and he should put up a monster season. Even amid a rough 2024 for the Jets, Garrett Wilson had over 100 catches, and Davante Adams averaged over six catches for over 77 yards per game in New York.

Loser: The Steelers’ future quarterback plans

If there were ever a time to get off the high-floor, low-ceiling path the Steelers have been on since Roethlisberger retired, it was now. Instead, they likely face a similar outcome to what they have done every year since 2017: Go .500 or better and fail to win a playoff game.

Rodgers will be the Steelers’ sixth different starting quarterback since 2022, the first year after Roethlisberger’s retirement. Only one was drafted by the team: 2022 first-rounder Kenny Pickett, who never worked out. Pittsburgh never devoted resources to finding a Roethlisberger succession plan when he was in Pittsburgh and swung and missed on their only true attempt after he left.

Unless Rodgers really raises the ceiling, the Steelers will go another season without a true plan for the future of the position. Maybe he proves this inconsequential with a terrific year, but based on the past three seasons, that doesn’t appear to be the case.

Winner: Aaron Rodgers

This isn’t a perfect landing spot for Rodgers, but it is pretty good. The Steelers have famously never had a losing season under Tomlin. While that fact might be tiring, it’s a testament to remarkable consistency in a league where most teams rise and fall. Rodgers should be backed by a strong defense and protected by a young offensive line that should only improve. Center Zach Frazier had a solid rookie season, and 2024 first-rounder Troy Fautanu returns from injury that limited him to one game last year. Left tackle Broderick Jones, a 2023 first-round selection, enters year three and is a key factor.

As a bonus, Rodgers faces the Jets in Week 1 and the Green Bay Packers (on Sunday Night Football, no less) in Week 8. The revenge tour begins. If he can beat Green Bay, he’d have beaten every team in the NFL over his illustrious career

Losers: Mason Rudolph and Will Howard

Rudolph and Howard did everything they were asked to do. Rudolph handled the Rodgers noise with aplomb. Howard, fresh off a national championship, figured to have a chance to be Rudolph’s primary backup at worst. Now, both are relegated to the bench. Perhaps this matters, in the grand scheme of things, a little bit less for Rudolph, but Howard being relegated to third-string duty means fewer practice reps, which is a tough pill to swallow for him.

Winners: The Steelers’ newsworthiness and the future headlines

Rodgers is many things. “Boring” isn’t one of them. For a franchise that’s generally been very buttoned-up and straightforward dealing with the media, Rodgers is a major departure. Expect some fireworks.

The Steelers were reportedly monitoring the Kirk Cousins situation in Atlanta as recently as late May. Cousins has not been at OTAs and has asked for a trade, though a deal was always going to have to wait until post-June 1 money savings kicked in.

Now, there’s no clear spot for Cousins to land as a starter. The Browns have four quarterbacks. The Giants brought in two free agents and drafted Jaxson Dart in the first round. The Steelers have found their answer. Cousins has wanted out for months, but it will be hard for him to find a good landing spot and perhaps even harder for the Falcons to find a willing trade partner.

Loser: The AFC North

If the Ravens, Bengals and Browns thought this might finally be the year the Steelers reset, they have to think again. We’ve run through the pros and cons of the Rodgers signing for Pittsburgh, but it’s clear this team hopes to compete in the rugged AFC North. Rodgers is 3-0 in his career against the Browns, 3-1 against the Ravens and 2-2 against the Bengals.

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