Will the Maple Leafs keep Mitch Marner, John Tavares? Trade William Nylander?

Sports

add

And we’re back.

With so many questions coming in for our latest Maple Leafs mailbag, we’ve broken answers out into multiple columns. Here’s Part 1 and Part 2.

Below, we dig into Part 3, where we get into questions about keeping Mitch Marner, saving cap space for Connor McDavid in 2026, Easton Cowan’s role next season, who Auston Matthews should play with and John Tavares’ plausible contract structure.

If there are more questions you’d like to see in future installments, feel free to leave them in the comments here.

Editor’s note: Questions have been edited for clarity. 

Do you think there is any chance they will sign Marner and trade Nylander? I think Marner is slightly more to blame for playoff performance, but this way, at least the team has more to work with other than just signing UFAs and making small trades. — Iain B.

I don’t, no. Because I don’t think Marner wants to do this anymore. I don’t think he’s enjoying playing here, and I don’t think he believes he can win here and have success. And you can understand why, given how things have gone on the ice.

The time to sign Marner and deal Nylander (or do the opposite) was a couple of years ago, and management missed that window, a massive mistake we’ll be talking about for years. It never should have been allowed to play out like this. But it did, and they’re going to have to pick up the pieces and make the best of the situation using the cap space they have.

With the cap going up and the Leafs having a decent amount of cap space starting this year, should management not overpay on pieces this year with an eye to next offseason when McDavid is available? Also, what are the odds this is a possibility or are the Leafs better off using the cap space now to stay in contention? — Marco E.

I don’t think you can view this year as a punt season. Not with the age of the remaining core (especially the blue line). Not with the record they had and how they pushed Florida in the playoffs.

You obviously don’t want to sign any contracts this summer that are going to look silly and immovable a year from now. But if you add players that have value at the number they’re signed at, you’ll have players you can move in 2026 if one of the best players in the world is available and wants to come to Toronto.

But there are always ways to open up cap space. The Golden Knights have proven that, year after year. The cap will jump $8.5 million in the summer of 2026, for one, plus the Leafs will have Anthony Stolarz, Calle Järnkrok, Scott Laughton and Bobby McMann coming off the books. That’s $16 million right there. Plus, they’ll likely sign at least a few one-year deals this summer. And some of the players they have under contract have only partial no-trades and can be dealt, if necessary.

A McDavid (or Jack Eichel, etc.) bid, in other words, should always be doable. If it isn’t, something has gone horribly wrong.

The odds this is a possibility are almost impossible to call at this point, so I won’t speculate what they might be. But I don’t think fans (and management) should give up on the possibility of adding another star over the next 13 months, even if they’re aggressive in adding pieces this offseason. Do both. Get creative and push to improve using the lanes they do have.

How much trade value can the Leafs extract from Mitch Marner’s signing rights? — George K.

It’s not going to be a ton. Given what the Lightning paid for Jake Guentzel’s rights last year, maybe a second-round pick? Honestly, I wouldn’t get your hopes up of even receiving that, as it would need to involve the Leafs and Marner’s camp coming together to make it happen and that feels unlikely at this point.

It really does feel like he’ll wait to get to July 1 and start fielding offers from around the league, rather than picking one or two destinations he wants to sign with the way that Mikko Rantanen did.

I feel like the relationship with Toronto is basically over, in all respects.

Who’s more tired of answering the same questions every year, you or the Maple Leafs? — Shane P.

Them, for sure. They have a lot more invested in the outcomes here than I do. But I will say that the most fun we at The Athletic had covering this team was in 2016-17, when that young team full of rookies went on a wild ride to making the playoffs. Those are the fun stories to dig into when the unexpected happens and there’s something a bit magical around a team, player, game or event. That’s what we love about sports.

I believe next year will be my 18th (!) covering the team, and unfortunately for the Leafs fan base, there just haven’t been enough of those kinds of stories over those years.

The questions, though, are a bit different this offseason, as Toronto’s optimal path forward is pretty murky, and any mistakes management makes in the next few weeks will only compound their issues. That makes them an interesting team to analyze right now, as their future is up in the air and the avenues to improve aren’t obvious.

Do you think the Leafs are inevitably on the way down now? Is Marner leaving the biggest disappointment in Leafs history? — Peter S.

No, I don’t think a decline is inevitable right now. It’s certainly one possible outcome if, as I mentioned above, they mess this offseason up. The degree of difficulty here is really high, and I’m curious to see if they’re able to get creative and address some of the roster’s shortcomings in this situation.

If they whiff on a bunch of overpriced, hard-nosed free agents and become a mediocre wild-card team that makes an early exit next season, then we can start legitimately asking questions like that.

I do think, however, that their most realistic contention window is likely within the next two years. Beyond that, it’s going to get even trickier, with so many older players on contracts that may not age well and not a ton of young talent coming. But there are ways to address that in the interim, too, by moving off of players before they decline to the point they don’t have value.

As for the biggest disappointment question … that’s a tough one. But I think the biggest disappointment has to be how long the team’s championship drought has become, mostly thanks to long periods of mismanagement and strategic mistakes. They can’t afford more of that.

Losing Marner without getting anything in return hurts, but it shouldn’t be a fatal blow, not with the other quality pieces the roster still has. This was a team that finished fourth in the NHL standings this past season. They can still be that, even down one star.

If it ends up being that way, with the Leafs taking a big step back, however, this entire era very well may end up charting up near the top of the Leafs disappointment scale, given how much promise there was when Matthews was drafted first overall and how little they’ve had to show for all their regular season success the past nine years.

With the Leafs struggling to score in the postseason five-on-five and the PP, a lot has been made about the forwards, but how much of that comes down to the defence being unable to support or being a threat to shoot or cycle when the Leafs are in the offensive zone? — Marco E.

Yes, those are fair points. The Leafs had the worst possession metrics in the league in the postseason and had only 44 percent of the high-danger chances at even strength. That’s a hard way to win against top teams such as the Panthers.

Part of these shortcomings can be addressed by balancing out the lineup up front, as Toronto was caved in with the bottom six on the ice too frequently. But some of this has to be on Craig Berube, too, and on management to figure out how they can augment their personnel to make this a stronger team territorially.

The Leafs have gone all-in on length and physicality on the blue line as part of their “Tree-fence,” which paid off in terms of shot blocking and clearing the front of the crease. But there’s more to having a high-level NHL defence than just those elements. They need to find ways to not get hemmed in their own zone so often or it’ll be impossible to generate a forecheck, strong cycle and grind game that Berube wants.

Add that to the list of challenging shifts the organization needs to make for next season.

Easton Cowan was drafted with the No. 28 pick in the 2023 draft by the Maple Leafs. (Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)

Is there a real chance Easton Cowan makes and stays on the team this coming year? Or do you think a season in the AHL is better for his development? — Brandon S.

I lean toward the AHL being the right place for him, given what he still needs to learn away from the puck. The jump from being a 20-year-old star on a loaded junior roster to contributing in real minutes in the NHL, on a playoff team, is immense.

Now, that said, every player is different. Few expected Matthew Knies to come in and play the way he did right away. (Obviously, his size helps with that, but we’ve seen smaller, skilled players excel at young ages in the NHL, too.)

The good news with Cowan is that you don’t have to commit to having a guaranteed NHL roster spot open for him from Day 1. There are going to be injuries, and he’s waiver exempt on his ELC, so you can yo-yo him back and forth. If he has an amazing training camp and looks like he can play in the top nine in preseason, give him some regular-season games as opportunities come up and go from there.

I look at the path of someone like Logan Stankoven as a good blueprint. His first pro season in 2023-24, he progressively lit up the AHL (57 points in 47 games) until it was clear he should be an NHL regular, and he ended up contributing for the Stars in a run to Round 3 in the playoffs.

Then by Year 2 this past season, he’s a full-time NHLer who puts up a 38-point season, looks ready for another step, and draws rave reviews from coaches and management in Carolina.

That’s a realistic ceiling for Cowan in my opinion, even if his two-way game isn’t on Stankoven’s level right now. But how fast he progresses in his development in the next 18 months is going to decide everything. And if a lot of injuries hit, the Leafs might need to accelerate things.

Tavares: Keep at what price? He’s shown renewed vigor this season. … What’s the math to keep him and his Leafs PJs in town? — Chris O.

I’ve been crunching some numbers on this one.

It’s clear his camp doesn’t want to leave an unreasonable amount of money on the table. And it’s also clear that the Leafs feel like they need to get a hometown discount, given all their other needs and the fact that they haven’t had playoff success with Tavares as a 2C making big money. So, how do you watch an inferior player in Brock Nelson sign for three years at $7.5 million a season and square that with where this has to go?

Tavares is 35 this fall, so realistically, this is his last big-money contract with a contender. If he’s playing beyond another three seasons, he’ll probably be in the cheap old guy mode like Corey Perry, who hasn’t made more than this year’s $1.15 million the past five years.

So I’d give Tavares the $22.5 million Nelson signed for, plus some bargain years at the end in the Perry range to bring the AAV down. Make it something like $27-ish million over six years, heavily front-loaded (i.e., around $6 million in the early years), and Tavares still gets a decent last payday and the Leafs get their cap relief.

Mix in a little deferred money and the cap hit is a shade under $4.5 million, which is going to be a nice win for at least the next couple of years.

To me, that’s a fair compromise contract. But this negotiation hasn’t exactly been easy, so we’ll see if they can get there or not in the next two weeks.

Is Matthews not good enough to drive a line with Knies and a journeyman on his own? Like Sidney Crosby in the past or Draisaitl? — Roland C.

No, I think he can do it. When healthy, of course.

The only caveat I’ll add to that is the Leafs are typically needing to have Matthews play the big shutdown minutes and eat D zone draws in addition to wanting him to score. Leon Draisaitl benefits from having some of the checking attention focused on McDavid, which hasn’t always been the case in Toronto with the way they’ve gone top-heavy with their lineup construction.

If the Leafs can build three lines that are threats, that helps Matthews. It’s even better if one of the other lines can handle some tougher matchups, which hasn’t regularly been the case for most of the Core Four era.

I think as long as you’re giving Matthews and Knies someone who is a strong two-way player with some hockey sense, that should be able to be a strong first line. Can’t help but wonder if Marchand, even at 37, might fit the bill.

I don’t see many internal options that make sense, given they need some defensive responsibility mixed with offensive ability, so going outside to fill that top-line RW spot makes the most sense. Patrick Kane, Reilly Smith and Connor Brown are a few other UFA names who might make sense there, if that’s the route they decide to go. But there aren’t many to choose from.

It’s a downgrade from Marner, certainly, but that’s why the Leafs are going to need more from down the lineup than they’ve had in the past. It’s imperative they get those additions right.

(Top photo of Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares: Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

Share on

email

Previous

trending_flat

FIFA Club World Cup 2025 schedule, scores: Where to watch Man City vs. Wydad AC, Real Madrid vs. Al-Hilal

Sports

Next

trending_flat

Brant Boyer wants to build a new era — and better aura — for 49ers’ special teams

Sports