Two storied National League East rivals are set ot meet in a key weekend series, and adding to the intrigue is that the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets are newly tied for first place.
Let’s set the scene with the updated National League East standings:
- New York Mets: 45-30
- Philadelphia Phillies: 45-30
- Atlanta Braves: 34-39 (10 GB)
- Washington Nationals: 31-44 (14 GB)
- Miami Marlins: 29-44 (15 GB)
The Mets presently hold the tiebreaker because they’re 3-0 in head-to-head games against the Phillies this season (they swept them in late April). By way of reminder, the expansion to a 12-team playoff field and the bloated postseason calendar that resulted from that expansion mean no more tiebreaker games. Instead, head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker for playoff spots and seeding, should two or more teams wind up tied at the end of the regular season.
SportsLine presently gives both clubs high odds of making the playoffs — 85.9% for the Mets and 91.6% for the Phillies. However, seeding matters, and it’s entirely possible that the eventual NL East champ will earn one of two coveted first-round byes in the NL bracket (the top two division winners in each league earn those byes). In what figures to be a hotly fought NL East race, every game matters.
Speaking of which, here’s how the pitching probables line up for this three-game set at Citizens Bank Park in Philly:
|
Fri., June 20 |
7:15 p.m. ET |
RHP Blake Tidwell (0-1, 14.73) vs. Zack Wheeler (7-2, 2.76 ERA) |
Apple TV+ |
|
Sat., June 21 |
7:15 p.m. ET |
RHP Griffin Canning (6-3, 3.80 ERA) vs. Mick Abel (2-0, 2.21 ERA) |
FOX |
|
Sun., June 22 |
7:10 p.m. ET |
LHP David Peterson (5-2, 2.60 ERA) vs. LHP Jesús Luzardo (6-3, 4.41 ERA) |
ESPN |
Friday’s opener has the makings of a mismatch on the pitching front. Wheeler is once again a Cy Young contender in the NL with his sub-3.00 ERA and 110 strikeouts in 88 innings. Meanwhile, the Mets will be forced to start the rookie Tidwell, who’s being recalled from Triple-A in time to make his second career start at the MLB level. He gets the call because of the injury suffered by Tylor Megill, who’s on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a sprain in his throwing elbow. The Mets also remain without ace Kodai Senga, who’s been out since June 12 with a hamstring strain (this is to nothing of the injuries to Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, who have yet to pitch this season).
The Phillies are favored at home in Friday’s opener (-203 at DraftKings) as oddsmakers also expect them to win the three-game series (-135).
Now let’s set the scene for this high-stakes clash with four things to know about the upcoming hostilities in Philly.
These teams are headed in opposite directions
As recently as June 11, the Mets held a notable five-game lead in the division. However, they enter this series on a six-game losing streak, having suffered sweeps at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays and the theretofore listless Atlanta Braves. Over those six defeats, the Mets were outscored by a hefty margin of 41-14, which means nothing was working well. The Mets weren’t swept in any of their 22 series prior to the current losing streak. It’s also their longest losing streak since they dropped seven in a row in early June of 2023. To put a finer point on it, the Mets had the best record in baseball prior to the ongoing skid.
As for the Phillies, they enter this clash having won eight of their last 10. That stretch includes taking two of three from the mighty Cubs, sweeping the Blue Jays, and winning three of four from the Marlins. Over that span, the Phillies have put up 51 runs scored against 32 runs allowed. The Mets series marks the start of a challenging schedule stretch for Philly. As of the Friday opener, 18 of Philly’s next 21 games come against winning teams, and 15 of those games are against teams presently in playoff position. As well, the three games against losing teams come against the improving Braves.
Juan Soto is looking more like his peak self
In his first season since leaving the Yankees in favor of a record $765 million free-agent pact with the Mets, Soto has taken a while to find his footing. Back on June 28, Soto endured an 0-for-4 day at the plate against the lowly White Sox, and that dropped his slash line for the season to .224/.352/.393. To be sure, that’s not bad production, particularly once you adjust for league and ballpark conditions, but it’s not anywhere close to peak Soto. June, though, has found Soto back in vintage form. Since the calendar flipped, he’s slashing .310/.481/.621 with five homers in 58 at-bats and 18 walks against just 10 strikeouts. That’s lifted his overall OPS+ to 143. Yes, that losing streak is still intact, but it hasn’t been Soto’s fault. Don’t be surprised if he makes his presence felt this weekend in Philly.
The Phillies need Jesús Luzardo to right himself
In a potential rubber match, the Phils will trot out Luzardo, their major offseason acquisition in a trade with Miami. He looked like yet another frontline presence in the Philly rotation for much of this season, but in his last four starts, he’s hemorrhaged 25 runs and nine unintentional walks in 16 ⅔ innings. That stretch includes a strong start against the hard-hitting Cubs, but otherwise it’s been a disaster. In his last start, a June 17 turn against the Marlins, he allowed four runs on six hits and four walks in five innings against one of MLB’s worst lineups. If there’s any hope to be found, it’s that the Mets’ offense this season has been significantly worse against lefties than they have against righties.
These two rivals won’t meet again for a long time
Whatever the results of the weekend set, it’ll simmer for some time. After Sunday, the Mets and Phillies won’t meet again until a three-game series in Queens scheduled for Aug. 25-27. Then the regular-season series concludes with four games back in Philly from Sept. 8-11. It’s of course entirely possible that the division will still hang in the balance by that late hour, so, to repeat, every game will likely matter in this NL East race.
Prediction
We’ll bow to recent trends, Philly’s home-field advantage, and its big pitching advantage in the opener. The Phillies take two of three, with Luzardo bouncing back in the finale.
This news was originally published on this post .
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