It all comes down to this: Game 7 of the NBA Finals on Sunday (8 ET, ABC). Winner will be crowned the 2025 champions.
Will the Thunder finish off one of the greatest seasons in NBA history? Or will the Pacers complete one of the most unexpected postseason runs of all time? Our writers weigh in on Game 7 and make their predictions.
1. Use 7 words to describe these NBA Finals.
Ben Rohrbach: Highly competitive basketball for two rabid fanbases. This series may not be for everyone, or for anyone who bought into the small-market criticism of it, but for those who love the sport — and, man, do they love basketball in Indiana and Oklahoma City — you cannot help but respect how hard these teams play.
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Tom Haberstroh: Basketball does not get better than this. The level of hooping is a coach’s dream as well as a fan’s dream. It may not be a TV partner’s dream matchup, but these two teams are putting legacies and bodies equally on the line.
Dan Devine: A thrilling, exhausting, illuminating showcase for the sport. (That’s eight, but if we don’t count the articles, it’s only six. Devine skirts a word count yet again.)
Nineteen days ago, damn near everyone just knew that the Thunder would win this series. Now, after a three-week rollercoaster ride of buzzer-beaters, bounce-backs and beatdowns — of adjustments, adjustments to the adjustments, and adjustments to the adjustments TO the adjustments — all we know for sure is that the Pacers are a hell of a lot better than most people realized, that their all-gas-no-brakes two-way play style is an incredible weapon, and that reaching the pinnacle requires post-graduate real-time problem-solving … even if everyone just knew the chip was yours for the taking. Hours before Game 7, I feel like all I know is that I don’t know nothing. And that’s fine.
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Vincent Goodwill: A harbinger for the future of basketball. It feels big now, especially if you’re in it, but it will feel bigger down the line when the NBA’s sea change really takes hold. The breakneck pace, the young stars making a name for themselves. Who knows if either will be back, but it is a signal of the terms these games will be played by in the coming years.
2. What, if anything, have we learned from these Finals so far?
Goodwill: That we don’t know as much as we thought we did. That coaching matters. That the connective tissue of heartbreak and year-to-year continuity means more than we believed it could. That there could very well be no run-away-and-hide dynasties in the league’s future, because the competition is too thick for anyone to truly dominate — and that youth can mature faster than we thought possible.
Devine: That, as we recently discussed on The Big Number, the future of the NBA is going to be a spin on pace-and-space — namely, being able to cover as much space as possible, as quickly as possible, for as long as possible.
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The Pacers and Thunder have made the argument for bumping a “Big 5” league up by at least a couple of contributors — to be able to run 10, 11, 12 deep during the regular season to keep your stars fresher for May and June, and to be able to play a style that applies maximum pressure on opponents for the full 48 minutes, with more players emptying the tank in shorter stints before coming out for a rest. Stars still matter, of course … but so does everyone else. And if you don’t have the Everyone Else, you won’t survive 82 games and four rounds — especially against teams that do.
Haberstroh: Never, ever count out the Indiana Pacers. Their ability to level up and play to their opponent (and often above it) will be the thing that I’ll remember most about these Finals. Every inch, every point is being earned on the battlefield. It’s as if they think the 13 players who voted Tyrese Haliburton as most overrated are all on the opposing roster. Every game.
Rohrbach: We have learned what it takes to build a team in the era of the second apron. Gone is the three-star model, or even the superstar tandem, and in its place are true teams. Both the Thunder and the Pacers are built around one superstar, a complementary fringe All-NBA talent and well-paid, talented depth.
3. What is the biggest key for the Thunder in Game 7?
Devine: Take care of the ball. Take care of the ball. And then, after that, take care of the ball. The Thunder are 73-18 this season when they don’t commit more turnovers than their opponent. When they do cough it up more than the other team, they’re … still 10-3, because they’ve been an incredible team all season. Two of those three losses, though, have come in this series: in Game 3, when Indiana’s full-court pressure conspired to minimize the impact of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and hamstring the Oklahoma City offense, and in Game 6, which began to shift on a three-turnover stretch early in the second quarter.
Conversely: When the Thunder haven’t turned the ball over more often than Indiana, they’re 3-1 in this series, with the only loss coming on Haliburton’s Game 1 buzzer beater. Control the ball, get shots on goal and limit Indiana’s transition opportunities, and OKC dramatically improves its odds of hoisting the Larry O’B.
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Goodwill: OKC’s offense hasn’t been humming the way we all expected, at least not since Game 2. When they’ve struggled in this series, it’s been that reason. When Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can’t get to his spots, or when the shooters aren’t hitting from the gravity he creates, they get into trouble. He can’t have another eight turnover game on Sunday. 27 assists to 23 turnovers? No bueno.
[Pacers-Thunder: 7 eye-popping stats that have defined the Finals]
Rohrbach: Will the defense show up? A swarming defense is Oklahoma City’s calling card, and it is the best thing any team has got going for it in these playoffs. Lean into that, and the Thunder should be fine. In Game 6, though, the Pacers “played harder than us,” said SGA. “And when a team plays harder, they turn the other team over.”
Haberstroh: They better hope the time-honored axiom, “Role players play better at home,” comes true on Sunday. Lu Dort, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso combining for five points in Game 6 is not the stuff of champions. They better defend and capitalize on kickouts in ways that were somehow out of reach in Game 6.
4. What is the biggest key for the Pacers in Game 7?
Haberstroh: Continue to limit turnovers. Unbelievably, the Thunder didn’t snag a steal until midway through the third quarter in Game 6. At the end of the day, that’s what sealed their blowout victory, and possibly their ticket to the Larry O’Brien Trophy. If they can keep the OKC Dobermans at bay, they’ll be in good position for their franchise’s first NBA championship.
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Rohrbach: If defense is key for OKC, then taking care of the ball is key for Indiana. The Pacers are 10-1 in the playoffs when they turn the ball over 13 times or fewer. They have required two buzzer-beaters, including one in Game 1 of this series, to finish 5-6 when they turn it over 14 times or more. I don’t think they want Game 7 to require a buzzer-beater. Or maybe they do. I’m out of the prediction business when it comes to Indy.
Goodwill: It’s almost the same as the Thunder. Take care of the ball. Especially on the road. Avoid the five-minute Looney Tunes calamity of errors that makes winning in this environment damn near impossible. You can’t count on rebounding from that disastrous stretch of Game 1 to steal one on the road. You don’t steal Game 7s in the NBA Finals on the road. You don’t have to play perfect, but you can’t give the game away. The defense will be there. The offense has to be passable.
Devine: Keep OKC uncomfortable on offense. After showing the Thunder a steady diet of full-court pressure throughout the series, Indiana dialed it way back in Game 6, preferring instead to meet Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams just inside half court and converge on the ball-handler from there, with hands in the passing lanes, help defenders in the gaps and well-timed double teams sprung from unfamiliar angles. The result was literally Oklahoma City’s worst offensive game of the season.
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After a couple of days to digest how the Pacers did it, Oklahoma City will likely come out for Game 7 with some new answers. If an Indiana defense led by assistant coach Jenny Boucek can introduce some new questions, though, the Pacers have a great shot to keep things tight enough to pull off yet another upset.
5. Name an X-factor for Game 7.
Rohrbach: 3-point shooting. As Tom mentioned, the old saying goes, “Role players play better at home,” and that has been true for the Thunder, whose fans create a true home-court advantage. In the Finals, the Thunder are shooting 39.8% on 32.7 3-point attempts per game at home and 30.9% on 22.7 attempts on the road, a difference of 30 points per game. Seems relevant.
[NBA Finals keys and X-factors for Pacers and Thunder]
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Devine: Is T.J. McConnell now too much of a defined, known quantity to be considered an X-factor? If so, let’s go with Obi Toppin, an irrepressible live wire on offense whose sprinting in transition and quick trigger from 3-point range fit perfectly with this Pacers team, and whose biggest and best moments of this postseason — 13 points in 14 minutes in Game 4 against Milwaukee, 20 points in 20 minutes in Game 4 against Cleveland, 18 points in 25 minutes in Game 6 against New York, 17 points with five 3-pointers in Game 1 against OKC, 20 points in 23 minutes in Thursday’s Game 6 — have all come in massive Pacers wins.
In a Game 7, every possession feels magnified, and every make feels like it counts for double. If Toppin can get free and get hot, those makes could be absolute backbreakers for the Thunder — and just the shot of adrenaline the Pacers need to get across the finish line.
Goodwill: Maybe Obi Toppin has also been so consistent through this series he no longer qualifies as an X-factor, but that’s who could make this game very interesting. He was shaky early in Game 1 with turnovers, but even then he was hitting shots. It doesn’t seem like the Thunder have an athlete that can go up with him consistently, especially in those second- and third-quarter stints that have changed the game’s complexion. Either he or Nembhard has to make the OKC defense pay with shooting or the paths to winning will be limited.
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Haberstroh: The officiating. If the referees call a tight game, advantage Pacers. If they let ‘em play, edge goes to OKC. Statistically, Scott Foster calls the tightest game of any official in the NBA, so we’ll see if he returns this series after working Game 4. None of the officials who worked the last Finals Game 7, in 2016, are still in the referee corp. It might be Foster’s assignment.
6. Game 7 prediction! Pacers or Thunder — who wins it all?
Goodwill: Thunder. Only because you can’t change your pick, and because you rarely see Game 7s be won on the road, 2016 notwithstanding. Unless the moment gets too big for them, they’ve been the best team since October. They must do it now.
Devine: Thunder. I’ve picked them at every step along the way — before the season, before the playoffs, before this series — and they’ve still got home-court advantage and the MVP. I’ll stick with them … and be roughly zero percent surprised if the Pacers, once again, make picking against them look foolish.
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Rohrbach: Thunder. They are the better team, or at least I have been saying that all series long, and rather than admit that the Pacers are just as good as the Thunder, why not try to prove myself right one more time?
Haberstroh: I’ll go Pacers. I picked OKC in 5, so I clearly underestimated Indiana’s fighting spirit. I won’t make that mistake again. Rick Carlisle seems to have Mark Daigneault on the ropes as indicated by the Thunder — the No. 1 overall seed that won 68 games! — continuing to change their starting lineups in the series like they’re the underdogs.
7. Who will win Finals MVP?
Haberstroh: Pascal Siakam. His Raptors closed out on the road in the 2019 Finals and he largely drove that effort with 26 points and 10 rebounds in the clincher in the Bay. Six years later, he seems poised to do it again, with 19.8 points, 8.3 rebounds and four assist averages in the series. He’s been as steady as they come.
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Rohrbach: T.J. McConnell. Just kidding. It’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and then everyone else.
Goodwill: Shai Gilegous-Alexander. There was a path for Jalen Williams, but it seems more unlikely unless he puts up a 40-ball. SGA has to take the lead here, both in action and emotion.
Devine: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. When in doubt, go with the MVP to finish the job.
This news was originally published on this post .
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