The Milwaukee Brewers seek their fifth consecutive victory when they host the Pittsburgh Pirates Monday in the opener of their three-game series. After beginning a six-game road trip that had one contest postponed due to rain with a loss to the Chicago Cubs, the Brewers won the finale of that series and swept a three-game set against the Minnesota Twins.
Milwaukee has scored 43 runs during its winning streak, crossing the plate at least eight times in each game – including Sunday’s 9-8 triumph over Minnesota. Pittsburgh lost six of seven contests before salvaging the finale of its three-game series against the Texas Rangers with an 8-3 victory. The Brewers and Pirates split a four-game set in Pittsburgh last month, with three of the contests being decided by one run.
Chad Patrick (3-7, 3.50 ERA) looks to halt his three-start losing streak when he takes the mound for Milwaukee. The 26-year-old rookie right-hander is coming off back-to-back rough outings in which he allowed five and four runs over five innings. Pittsburgh counters with Braxton Ashcraft (1-0, 1.54), who will be making his first start after beginning his MLB career this season with seven relief appearances.
Sportsbooks have set the total strikeout player props for Ashcraft (Over -157, Under +116) at 2.5 and Patrick (Over -103, Under -127) at 5.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Ashcraft Over 2.5 as a 5-star play on its five-star scale and Patrick Under 5.5 as a 3-star play.
In addition to Ashcraft, the model has found other good value on Monday’s nine-game schedule, as there are two pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 4.5 stars. Here they are:
Paul Blackburn Over 3.5 strikeouts (+114) vs. Braves (7:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.2 strikeouts
Despite having lost eight of their last nine, the Mets are just one game behind the first-place Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East. Looking to break out of their funk and avenge a three-game sweep in Atlanta last week, they send Blackburn to the mound to make his third start of the season. The 31-year-old right-hander tossed five scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his first turn but yielded four runs – three earned – over 3 2/3 frames in a loss to the Braves in his second outing, which followed a pair of relief appearances. Blackburn has yet to go Over this number this year but recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his first two starts against Atlanta.
Braxton Ashcraft Over 2.5 strikeouts (-156) vs. Brewers (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.0 strikeouts
Ashcraft has worked at least two innings in four of his seven relief outings and has allowed one run just twice. The 25-year-old right-hander has registered multiple strikeouts on four occasions, topping out at three over two frames on June 4 against the Houston Astros. The Brewers have four players who have struck out at least 70 times this season, with Christian Yelich (84) and Rhys Hoskins (78) among the top 20 in the NL. If Ashcraft lasts at least three innings, he should have no trouble going Over 2.5 strikeouts.
Matthew Liberatore Over 3.5 strikeouts (-136) vs. Cubs (7:45 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.6 strikeouts
Liberatore has gone Over this number in 12 of his 14 overall starts this season and six of seven at home. The 25-year-old left-hander has recorded 13 strikeouts over 12 1/3 innings in eight career contests – two starts – against the Cubs. Chicago has two players who rank in the top 10 in the NL in strikeouts, as both Dansby Swanson and Seiya Suzuki have fanned 86 times this year.
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