Since the news of the biggest blockbuster NBA move of the summer—Kevin Durant to the Houston Rockets—leaked on Sunday, the Rockets have been widely regarded as the big winners of the trade. Both CBS Sports’ Sam Quinn and Brad Botkin are big fans of the move for Houston, and sportsbooks also responded favorably, dropping the Rockets’ odds to win the 2006 NBA title considerably. DraftKings lists Houston at +750 to win the championship, the second-lowest odds of any team, behind only the freshly minted champion Oklahoma City Thunder.
But how much has the addition of Durant improved the Rockets’ title chances? The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, has crunched the numbers on the following season and has the answer.
Prior to the trade, the model projected Houston to win 48.3 games. With the addition of Durant, the model projects 50.2. The projections also give the Rockets a 5.0% chance of winning the NBA title.
| HOUSTON ROCKETS | WINS | WIN% | MAKE PLAYOFFS | WIN CONFERENCE | WIN CHAMPIONSHIP |
| Before trade | 48.3 | 58.90% | 81.10% | 5.72% | 2.27% |
| After trade | 50.2 | 61.20% | 91.20% | 8.90% | 5.00% |
| Difference | 1.9 | 2.30% | 10.10% | 3.18% | 2.73% |
“While we may only have the Rockets improving by roughly two wins, it’s a huge two wins when you consider two games was the difference between finishing third in the West and eighth in the West in 2024-25,” says Stephen Oh, SportsLine’s principal data engineer and the man behind the model.
Durant is exactly what the Rockets are not but is exactly what they need. Last season Houston earned the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference despite struggling offensively on occasion, especially in the halfcourt. The team lacked a go-to bucket getter who could consistently get his own shot late in the shot clock and late in games. The Rockets ranked 28th in the league in offensive efficiency (65.1 points per 100 possessions) with between four and seven seconds left in the shot clock and 23rd in the NBA in efficiency (110.7) in the fourth quarter. Those deficiencies were exploited by the Warriors in the first-round playoff loss.
Durant gives Houston that go-to shotmaker. The two-time NBA champ and Finals MVP has averaged at least 25.0 points per game in 16 straight seasons. His 27.2 career scoring average ranks sixth all-time. Last season, at age 36, he averaged 26.6 points, the third-best average by a player age 36 or older. He also shot 52.7% from the field and 43.0% from beyond the 3-point arc.
“Kevin Durant’s superior offensive efficiency (he was worth 10 points on the spread for Phoenix when he played versus when he didn’t) and still respectable ability to load up the stat sheet gives Houston exactly what they were looking for,” Oh says.
This news was originally published on this post .
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