NHL trade grades: John Gibson, at last, is on the move as Red Wings shore up goaltending

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Red Wings get: Goalie John Gibson

Ducks get: Goalie Petr Mrazek, second-round pick in 2027, fourth-round pick in 2026

Mark Lazerus: Fun fact: Gibson is only 31 years old. He entered the league at such a young age and has been on the trade block for so long that it only feels like he’s an ancient veteran in the twilight of his career. At long last, the Ducks have moved their longtime goaltender, sending him to the goalie-starved Red Wings. Lukáš Dostál’s emergence as the Ducks’ clear No. 1 over the past two seasons made this move inevitable, but it’ll still be strange to see Gibson in another jersey.

Trading goalies is notoriously difficult, and the Ducks did well enough to get a second-rounder, a fourth-rounder and an adequate backup in Petr Mrázek, who resurrected his career with some solid years in Chicago (don’t trust the numbers; he was quite good behind a truly awful team). This is Dostál’s team now, and he’ll be asked to carry a bigger load going forward. The Ducks didn’t get better by making this trade, but they took care of a lingering headache and freed up cap space moving forward as Pat Verbeek tries to give new coach Joel Quenneville a playoff-caliber team in a hurry.

Gibson immediately becomes Detroit’s best goalie. That’s a low bar to clear, but an important one. Over the last four seasons, Detroit hasn’t had a goalie post a save percentage higher than .904. Cam Talbot had a solid enough season this past year, saving 10.39 goals above expected according to Evolving-Hockey, but the fact is, the Red Wings have been cobbling together middling-to-bad goalie tandems for years, since the days of Jimmy Howard and, well, Mrázek. Talbot was an All-Star this past season, and also in 2022 with the Minnesota Wild. But he turns 38 next week, and nobody’s confusing him with a true No. 1 goalie, especially for a team that’s increasingly desperate to make the playoffs and avoid a 10th straight early spring.

What’s interesting is how little faith Steve Yzerman seems to have in his highly touted prospects. Sebastian Cossa was the No. 15 pick in the 2021 draft and made his NHL debut this past season, stopping 12 of 14 shots in relief of Ville Husso in his only appearance. But he’s put up good numbers in Grand Rapids and, at 6-foot-6, 229 pounds, is a tantalizing goalie prospect. Detroit also has Trey Augustine, a second-round pick in 2023 who just finished his third outstanding season at Michigan State. But Cossa is only 22, and Augustine is just 20. It’s likely that Yzerman sees Gibson, signed through the next two seasons at a $6.4-million cap hit, as a bridge to that next generation. Goalies are rarely ready to be NHL regulars in their early 20s — though Gibson managed just fine a decade ago.

Ducks grade: B
Red Wings grade: B+

Shayna Goldman: The will-they-won’t-they saga is finally over in Anaheim. Gibson has been a staple on most trade boards in recent years, but the asking price seemed to be far too high for a goaltender with so many question marks.

Peak Gibson was elite. He saved upwards of 24 goals above expected in three consecutive seasons, from 2016-17 to 2018-19. But his numbers tanked from there. And so did the team around him. The Ducks’ defense just eroded in front of him over the last six years; in each season since, Anaheim has been a bottom-10 team in expected goals against in all situations. In most seasons, Gibson would handle the chaos to a point and then just hit a wall, likely due to an overwhelming workload.

As much as a playoff hopeful could project that his game would rebound in better surroundings, goaltending is extremely volatile.

To Gibson’s credit, he is coming off of one of his better seasons in recent years by the numbers. He earned a 0.912 save percentage, his best since 2018-19, and saved 11.7 goals above expected. But with the good came the bad: Injuries that added even more question marks to the situation.

It makes sense why a trade didn’t come together sooner with all of that in mind, considering the term left on Gibson’s deal and the Ducks’ high asking price. Management really hurt its leverage over the years because it was clear Gibson’s timeline didn’t line up with the rebuild process, and then Dostál’s emergence showed their future in net.

At this point, the return was never going to be that special. The Ducks overplayed their hand and have to pay for that now. But at least that contract is off the books and the team can look forward, not back.

From the Red Wings’ point of view, it’s a really interesting gamble. Five different goalies played at least one game last year, so it makes sense that the team would want some stability moving forward. But can Gibson be that? It’s a wild card at this point, but for this price, it’s worth giving it a shot. The Red Wings’ defense is far from perfect (especially on the PK), but he shouldn’t be as exposed as he was in Anaheim.

The question now is what the Red Wings are planning to do next — is a Gibson-Talbot net the move, or could there be another deal to clear the way for Cossa?

Red Wings grade: B
Ducks grade: C+

(Photo: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)

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