Which Edmonton Oilers players will benefit most from recent roster moves?

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An NHL roster is in constant motion, with peak churn occurring around July 1 and the annual free-agent procurement period. For the Edmonton Oilers, the first week of free agency was relatively quiet compared to previous seasons. Winger Andrew Mangiapane and centre Curtis Lazar were the only major additions to the NHL roster. General manager Stan Bowman’s tweaks give the Oilers a substantial defensive boost, with Mangiapane also able to add at the offensive end.

Mangiapane’s signing should be considered recognition that the skill lines need help when playing without the puck. Last season, among the top performers on the top two lines, only Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Vasily Podkolzin displayed above-average defensive metrics. The same source that delivered those numbers (via Puck IQ and Natural Stat Trick) predicts impressive success offensively and defensively for Mangiapane in 2025-26.

Who benefits most? 

At first blush, it appeared the addition of Mangiapane was another attempt to shore up the Draisaitl line. It looked like an attempt to reset the Jeff Skinner experiment from a year ago.

If we look closer at the five-on-five numbers versus elites from PuckIQ, we get an interesting view of what was happening in 2024-25 when the two big centres were together and apart:

All numbers five-on-five

This is a shocking look at what happened with Connor McDavid solo versus elites in 2024-25. His GA-60 (3.1) increased markedly from 2.1 GA-60 in 2023-24. That’s another goal against per 60 minutes. Meanwhile, Draisaitl’s GA-60 improved by almost three goals per 60 (4.4 to 1.6).

What are we looking at here? An outlier season with a mountain of poor luck? Both men had strong Dangerous Fenwick (DFF Pct) numbers, which is a metric similar to expected goals (I call it smart Corsi). McDavid’s 2023-24 DFF Pct (62) matched his 61 percent goal percentage against elites, so this does in fact look like an outlier.

Meanwhile, Draisaitl’s improvement across the board was sensational. With or without McDavid, he shone like a diamond. When the two men played together, the results were within the range of expected year over year.

The takeaway from these numbers? It’s possible the Oilers signed Mangiapane to run with McDavid at five-on-five. Draisaitl posted strong defensive numbers with Podkolzin, although the offensive totals could be improved.

Edmonton may have decided to add Mangiapane just to make sure the leak is sealed. Oilers fans may see McDavid running with Mangiapane and Zach Hyman next season, with Draisaitl-Podkolzin looking for an offensive spike from prospect Matt Savoie, newcomer David Tomasek or a veteran like Nugent-Hopkins or Adam Henrique.

Need for speed

Lazar is well-known to Edmonton hockey fans. He was a star for the Edmonton Oil Kings from 2010 through 2014. Lazar was a big part of two WHL champion teams and the 2014 Memorial Cup win by the Oil Kings.

Lazar arrived in the NHL in the fall of 2014 and has remained in the league for most of the last decade. He is a strong defensive forward who has speed and can kill penalties.

Edmonton’s addition of Lazar gives the team even more room to wheel next season. The overall utility of the roster (there are multiple centres who routinely play the wing) allows coach Kris Knoblauch to run all manner of combinations up front.

Lazar’s faceoff percentage last season (51.3 in 400 faceoffs) will be an improvement over last year’s fourth-line pivots. Mattias Janmark (40.6 in 239 tries) and Noah Philp (39.2 percent in 102 attempts) did not fare well last season. Lazar, a righty, and Janmark, a lefty, may get a look as a fourth-line tandem in an effort to make sure the Oilers have a strong-side option for every faceoff. The speed on the fourth line was badly needed.

Good news for a distant bell? 

The Oilers have been relatively quiet so far in addressing goaltending. Olivier Rodrigue, the team’s AHL starter one year ago, was not qualified by the organization. Beyond that, crickets.

Speculation has Bowman trading for an established NHL veteran to push Stuart Skinner for the starting job. That might force Calvin Pickard to Bakersfield next season, giving the team added depth.

The current depth chart offers an alternate, if unlikely, solution. If the club enters the regular season with Skinner and Pickard as the NHL goalies, then the Bakersfield Condors would deploy two of Matt Tomkins, Connor Ungar, Nathaniel Day and Samuel Jonsson.

Tomkins, who was recently signed, is 31 and has had a meandering pro career that has taken him to Sweden, the ECHL and AHL and a six-game audition with the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2023-24. Goalies with his resume have emerged as quality NHL options (Johnny Bower, Tim Thomas), but they are extreme outliers. It’s likely Tomkins will serve as a mentor for one of the young goalies under contract.

Jonsson is one of the top prospects in the organization based on his exceptional season in Sweden’s Allsvenskan. He has good size and took a big step forward last winter. It’s a stretch to suggest management cleared the decks for Jonsson at the AHL level, something management appears to have done with Savoie on the NHL team. However, Jonsson’s resume is the most impressive of the goalies ticketed for the minors, so it makes sense to give him a long look in Bakersfield.

Ungar delivered a .903 save percentage in 35 ECHL games for the Fort Wayne Komets, and Nathaniel Day looked good (.914 save percentage) in five playoff games for the Komets.

Jonsson has a chance based on the current depth chart, but things change before camp. Jonsson’s future looks bright, no matter the nature of the depth chart at training camp this fall.

Bottom line

The Mangiapane signing should benefit the Oilers no matter where he plays this coming season. It is interesting that McDavid finished under 50 percent versus elites at five-on-five for the first time in his incredible career. That could signal the end of Nugent-Hopkins’ time as McDavid’s left winger and open up opportunities for the elusive third scoring line in Edmonton.

Lazar should allow Janmark to thrive on the wing, although he did perform well as the team’s fourth-line centre down the stretch and into the postseason.

The lack of a goalie move at the NHL level is perhaps the most interesting development in Edmonton. Jonsson could benefit, and the Condors could be in a position to develop the Oilers’ next starter over the next 10 months.

(Photo of Curtis Lazar: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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