What’s at stake during NBA’s final two weeks? Playoff races, lottery odds and historic stats to watch

Over the past month, NBA basketball as a whole has been, well, not the most exciting product. Most slates include multiple games involving teams that are actively trying to lose, while the top seeds are so far ahead of their competition in the playoff picture that resting star players has become routine.

But don’t log out of League Pass just yet. With two weeks left in the regular season, there are plenty of battles between teams both good and bad to keep your interest. The Western Conference jumble means that on any given day a team can move up or down several spots in the pecking order, while the East has a solid competition going for the spots above the Play-In line. Meanwhile there are some incredible statistical achievements that will be solidified during the home stretch.

As we prepare for the playoffs, here’s a look at what’s at stake and the key matchups you should mark down for the final two weeks of the regular season.

Locked in

• The Thunder have clinched the No. 1 seed in the West.
• The Cavaliers have clinched a playoff spot in the East.
• The Celtics have clinched a playoff spot in the East (and the Atlantic Division).
• The Knicks have clinched a playoff spot in the East

Probably won’t change

Eastern Conference

Western Conference

Playoff races to watch

Pacers, Pistons and Bucks

The Pacers, Pistons and Bucks are all fighting for playoff position in the middle of the Eastern Conference standings. Earning the No. 4 spot would guarantee home-court advantage in the first-round, so you’ll likely see all three teams doing their best to get there before the regular season ends (aka playing their regulars usual minutes). The Pacers and Pistons have an outside shot at landing in the No. 3 seed, but it doesn’t seem likely at this point. It’s also worth noting that Indiana plays the three worst teams in the league (Charlotte, Utah and Washington) over its final seven games.

Key matchups:

• April 11: Bucks at Pistons
• April 13: Pistons at Bucks

Magic, Hawks, Bulls and Heat

The Play-In Tournament drama will reach a fevered pitch over the final two weeks as Orlando, Atlanta, Chicago and Miami battle for positioning. The No. 7 spot comes with multiple benefits — the first game versus the No. 8 seed and, if necessary, the second game against the winner of the 9-10 game would both be at home, and winning the first game would pit them against the No. 2 seed rather than No. 1 (although in reality, Boston isn’t exactly a more favorable matchup than Cleveland).

Key matchups:

• April 8: Hawks at Magic
• April 9: Heat at Bulls
• April 13: Magic at Hawks

The Mess in the West

Things are so jam-packed in the Western Conference that No. 2 through No. 8 are separated by only 6.5 games (compared to the East, where No. 2 has a 20-game lead over No. 7). It seems likely that the race for the West’s No. 2 seed will come down to the Rockets and Nuggets, but there’s certainly a world in which the Lakers and/or Grizzlies make things interesting over the stretch run. The Warriors, Timberwolves and Clippers also have an outside shot at landing in the top two, but it’s probably more likely that seeds No. 4 through No. 8 end up as the Lakers, Grizzlies, Warriors, Wolves and Clippers in some order.

Key matchups:

• April 1: Timberwolves at Nuggets
• April 1: Warriors at Grizzlies
• April 3: Warriors at Lakers
• April 4: Nuggets at Warriors
• April 6: Rockets at Warriors
• April 9: Rockets at Clippers
• April 10: Timberwolves at Grizzlies
• April 11: Rockets at Lakers
• April 11: Grizzlies at Nuggets
• April 13: Nuggets at Rockets
• April 13: Clippers at Warriors

Mavericks, Kings and Suns

The race for Nos. 9 and 10 in the West is particularly intriguing since one of the Mavericks, Kings and Suns will end up missing the postseason entirely. Therefore all three will be fighting for their lives over the next two weeks for a shot at extending their seasons. Whoever earns No. 9 and 10 will end up facing off in a win-or-go-home Play-In matchup, with the victorious team advancing to play the loser of the 7-8 game for a chance to earn the No. 8 seed — and a date with the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.

Key matchup:

• April 13: Suns at Kings

Lottery mania

Wizards, Jazz, Hornets and Pelicans

As Cooper Flagg does his best to help Duke win an NCAA title, the teams that hope to draft him are doing their best to lose as many games as possible. By NBA rule, the best odds at landing the No. 1 pick go to the bottom three teams, who all have a 14% chance at the top prize. For whoever finishes fourth, the odds fall to 12.5%. That has created an intriguing (and borderline unwatchable) race to land in the bottom three between Washington, Utah, Charlotte and New Orleans. All four teams are giving heavy minutes to — shall we say — somewhat unrecognizable players, in order to maximize losses and increase their lottery odds. The Pelicans are on the outside looking in, but you never know how things will play out since the tanks are in full effect.

76ers losing to keep pick

The latter portion of the Philadelphia 76ers’ season has been devoted to one purpose and one purpose only: Keeping their top-six protected pick. If the pick lands outside the top six, it goes to the Oklahoma City Thunder as a result of the 2020 trade that sent Terrance Ferguson, Danny Green and Vincent Poirier to the 76ers. Philly has already shut down Joel Embiid and Paul George for the season, and Tyrese Maxey hasn’t appeared in a game since early March. The 76ers are in a race with the Brooklyn Nets for the league’s fifth-worst record, but even landing there wouldn’t guarantee a top-six pick. It’s all up to the lottery balls, and the Sixers are trying to give themselves the best chance possible to add a prospect/asset to a core they hope can compete for a title next season.

Rare statistical feats

Joker making history

Nikola Jokić will become just the third player in NBA history to average a triple-double for a full season, joining Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook (who has done it four times), but Jokić will have by far the highest true shooting percentage of any of the three. The closest was Robinson in 1961-62, who posted a .554 mark. As of Monday morning, Jokić was set to blow that out of the water with a remarkable .659 true shooting percentage — just incredible efficiency for someone set to nearly average a 30-point triple-double.

SGA joining elite company

Only two guards in NBA history have averaged at least 32 points on 50% shooting or better, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will soon become the third, joining Michael Jordan and George Gervin. That makes SGA the only point guard to ever accomplish the feat, and his true shooting percentage will land well ahead of any of Jordan’s or Gervin’s from their respective seasons.

The Great Barrier Thief

If he collects at least 18 steals in the team’s final eight games (assuming he plays them all), Atlanta Hawks guard Dyson Daniels will become the first player in 30 years to average at least three steals per game (minimum 65 games). The last player to achieve the feat was Nate McMillan for the Seattle SuperSonics in 1994. Daniels has nearly a 100-steal lead on the next-highest player this season, and he should become the 30th player in NBA history to record at least 220 steals in a season, barring something unforeseen.