The looming fight after Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s deal. Plus, a league-wide standings check

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The Windup Newsletter ⚾ | This is The Athletic’s MLB newsletter. Sign up here to receive The Windup directly in your inbox.

Let’s dive into some stats, standings and a couple minor Brewers trades. Plus: Ken has more analysis on the Vlad Jr. extension. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal. Welcome to The Windup!

Stats: Fun with Baseball Savant!

Once in a while, I like to poke around on Baseball Savant. Today, I came back to the swing speed leaderboard:

We looked at these a bit last year, but here’s the 2025 (so far) version. Left-to-right is swing speed, and down-to-up is how often they square up a ball with those swings.

The extremes are about who you’d expect. Top left corner? Luis Arraez (63.1 mph). That cluster of four hanging out at the corner of 30 percent and 76 mph? Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani.

We have a newcomer on the far right, though. That’s 21-year-old third baseman Junior Caminero of the Rays. He swings it nearly a whole mile per hour faster (79.6 mph) than the next guy (Jordan Walker, 78.7).

But check out this second chart: it’s the average swing speed against the 200 pitchers who have induced the most swings.

On the far right is José Soriano. On average, hitters swing 74 mph (or: the average speed of Bryce Harper) against him. On the far left: Ben Casparius, who keeps hitters off guard, at an average of 69.1 mph (or Jung-Hoo Lee’s average).

Where you don’t want to be on this chart is the top right corner. That’s Antonio Senzatela. Hitters are swinging it hard (73 mph) and squaring it up 45.1 percent of the time, and he pitches his home games at Coors Field? That’s going horribly, right? Hey Siri, what’s Senzatela’s ERA?

*phone voice* Antonio Senzatela’s ERA in 2025 is 0.00. As of yesterday afternoon, his 19 hits allowed were the most in baseball. He has three strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings. LOL. LMAO, even.

Ken’s Notebook: Vlad Jr.’s deal and the salary cap conversation

From my column on the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. extension:

The Guerrero agreement is great news for right fielder Kyle Tucker, a superior all-around player to Guerrero, and bad news for the Chicago Cubs, the team that acquired Tucker entering his walk year. Tucker, 28, is two years older than Guerrero, so the deal he gets probably will not be as long. But in open bidding, his AAV figures to be at least $40 million. And maybe a good bit higher. Twelve years, $42 million a year, a $504 million guarantee? Cubs owner Tom Ricketts already is weeping.

The price for the Mets to retain their own first baseman, Pete Alonso, probably just went up as well. Alonso, who at 30 is four years older than Guerrero, struggled on the open market last offseason. The two-year, $54 million contract he signed with the Mets includes an opt out after this season, one Alonso is certain to exercise if his hot start is the prelude to a monster year at the plate. True, Alonso will continue to face questions about his defense and athleticism. But Guerrero and Soto faced those questions, too, and at younger ages. Have at it, Steve Cohen.

If rival clubs want to complain about the Guerrero contract, their most valid argument would be that the Jays should have locked him up for less money long ago. The Jays had numerous chances to do just that, particularly after the San Diego Padres awarded Fernando Tatis Jr. a 14-year, $340 million extension in February 2021. But the Jays hemmed and hawed, making one offer after another that Guerrero deemed insufficient. And after the Soto contract — one the entire sport saw coming, if not quite to that magnitude — they found themselves in a corner from which they could not escape.

Guerrero wound up with a guarantee almost four times the career earnings of his father, Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero Sr., who played from 1996 to 2011. Yep, salaries keep going bonkers, just as franchise values keep going bonkers. No one — no player, no owner — is going broke in an industry that last season generated $12.1 billion in revenue.

The Guerrero agreement is no more insane than Alex Rodriguez’s initial $252 million free-agent deal with the Texas Rangers. And Giancarlo Stanton’s $325 million extension with the Miami Marlins. And Mike Trout’s $426.5 million extension with the Los Angeles Angels. None of those contracts aged well, of course. Numerous others have not, either. For better or worse, such is the price of doing business.

But the current system will not remain intact without a fight.

More here.

More Guerrero extension:

Standings Check: Where we’re at through 10ish games

Yesterday, we checked in on the NL West, where the Giants had overtaken the Dodgers and Padres (San Diego is back on top now). Let’s take a look around the league standings and see if anything sticks out.

In the AL West, the Rangers have a -8 run differential, but still own the AL’s best record at 8-3. Baseball’s weird! Two of the bottom teams — Houston (4-6) and Seattle (4-7) — traded leads in the eighth inning last night, with the Mariners winning 4-3. Look at this ninth-inning play by J.P. Crawford!

J.P. CRAWFORD HOW DO YOU DO WHAT YOU DO pic.twitter.com/PnpJwIga6x

— MLB (@MLB) April 8, 2025

In the AL Central, the uniformity of 2-4 has dissipated. The Tigers (6-4) have found their stride a bit and the White Sox (2-7) have, uh, also found theirs, apparently. It’s far too early for this, but I could see the current standings (Tigers, Royals, Guardians, Twins, White Sox) being the final order of finish.

In the AL East, the Yankees (6-4) and Red Sox (6-5) are doing about what I expected (sitting 1-2 in some order). I never expected the Orioles (5-6) to stay in the cellar; they climbed out of it and over the Rays (4-5) with a win in Arizona last night.

Speaking of the East, the NL version is already getting interesting, with the Phillies (7-2) and Mets (7-3) off to hot starts. The Marlins (5-5) and Nats (4-6) are also following the script. The Braves are decidedly NOT, at 1-8.

The only real surprise in the NL Central is the tied-for-last Reds; they’re 4-7 thanks to a wretched offensive stretch. The Cubs (8-5) were supposed to be good, and they are. Brewers (5-5), Cardinals (4-6) and Pirates (4-7) feels like the right order.

And back to the NL West: The Dodgers lost again last night, this time in D.C. They’re now in third place in the division (9-3), behind the Padres and Giants, who are tied atop the division at 9-2.

More league-wide check-ins: In this week’s Power Rankings, we look at one difference-maker for each team.

Deals: Brewers make a couple of trades

It’s a little unusual for a team to make two trades in one day this early in the season. So let’s see what the Brewers are up to.

Trade one: Brewers receive RHP Quinn Priester, Red Sox receive OF Yophery Rodriguez, etc.

The 24-year-old Priester was the Pirates’ first-round draft pick (18th) in 2019, then was traded to Boston before last year’s deadline for fellow first-rounder INF Nick Yorke (17th) in 2020.

Now the Red Sox have flipped him to the Brewers for the 19-year-old outfielder Rodriguez, a 2025 Competitive A round draft pick (No. 33) and either a player to be named later or cash considerations.

For Boston, it’s not a bad return for a guy who didn’t seize an opportunity to make the rotation out of spring training this year. But the Brewers needed a starter — they currently have seven pitchers on the injured list.

Rodriguez was No. 8 on Keith Law’s top 20 Brewers prospects list earlier this year.

Trade two: Brewers receive OF Daz Cameron, Orioles receive LHP Grant Wolfram

What a weird week for Wolfram. On Sunday, he was called up to the big leagues for the first time, at the age of 28. He didn’t pitch, and on Monday, he was designated for assignment, then traded to the Orioles.

Cameron (also 28) has played 139 games in four big-league seasons with the Tigers and A’s. Both guys will report to the minor leagues.

Handshakes and High Fives

Ahead of the Guardians’ home opener, Zack Meisel gives us a touching tribute to a few die-hard fans who are no longer here to enjoy it.

Tigers assistant GM Sam Menzin has resigned amidst accusations of sending lewd photos to Tigers staffers.

It happens more than you think: pitchers catching strays during batting practice. This time, it was Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti, who suffered a broken thumb.

Shohei Ohtani says the Dodgers are being “conservative and thoughtful” with his pitching rehab. Meanwhile, the Dodgers went to the White House yesterday.

More on the Jarren Duran story from yesterday. Steve Buckley says that Red Sox fans have a history of applauding moments like this, while Red Sox manager Alex Cora says that Duran’s story will save lives.

Six months ago, Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery. Yesterday, the Padres starter played catch for the first time since the procedure.

Most-clicked in our last newsletter: Speedy Rays prospect Chandler Simpson beating out a routine grounder to the first baseman.

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(Top photo: Nick Turchiaro / Imagn Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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