Our way-too-early Stanley Cup predictions, plus Gabriel Landeskog’s emotional return

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Good morning! We’re five days into the NHL playoffs, and every series is underway. You know what that means? Time for our first edition of Way-Too-Early Conclusions. Keep scrolling!

While You Were Sleeping

Sleeping? I’m jealous. After taking in Game 2’s wild overtime win by the Leafs on Tuesday, I got home after 1 a.m. Thankfully the schedule-makers were thinking of those of us on vampire hours by starting that night’s Vegas-Minnesota barnburner at 11 p.m. ET. So there was somehow still hockey to watch.

Who came up with these puck drop times this year? Tonight’s Panthers-Lightning Game 2, for example, kicks off at the odd hour of 6:30 p.m. ET, which will cut into Tampa folks’ time at Hattricks pregame.

At least the hockey/network TV gods have gifted us quadruple-headers (!) on both Saturday and Sunday, with staggered starts throughout both days. So cancel any plans you had for a nice little Saturday at Home Depot and invest in a beverage helmet thingy. You won’t regret it.

Here’s what you may have missed last night.

(Isaiah J. Downing / Imagn Images)

Landeskog’s emotional return

There wasn’t a dry eye in the house in Denver.

Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog played in an NHL game for the first time since winning the Stanley Cup on June 26, 2022, a gap of 1,032 days — or nearly three years — due to multiple knee surgeries and cartilage transplant surgery.

Landeskog skated in 13 minutes on the Avs third line, laid six hits and didn’t look out of place in what turned into a tough loss for Colorado, dampening the vibes.

“Honestly, I felt pretty good,” Landeskog said afterward.

Pierre LeBrun was at the game and penned this excellent story on Landeskog’s comeback.

Landeskog’s absence was not the longest ever for an NHL player before returning to his team. Bonus points to those who can name the other four players in NHL history who missed 1,000-plus days and then played again for the same team.

(Hint: One of them is one of the greatest players — and one of my favorite players — of all time. Answers at the bottom.)

Huge wins for Caps, Kings and Stars 

First: Plucky Montreal made a strong push yet again, but Capitals netminder Logan Thompson was up to the task with 14 saves in the third period to give Washington a 3-1 win and a 2-0 series lead. The Bell Centre will be rocking for tomorrow’s Game 3 — and the Habs need that boost to make this a series.

Next: The Kings torched Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner yet again, chasing him from the crease and perhaps the series as part of a convincing 6-2 win to give Los Angeles a 2-0 series lead. Adrian Kempe was the catalyst with two goals and two assists, and Connor McDavid was kept entirely off the scoresheet. Edmonton looks to be in big trouble, as this is a better L.A. team than the Oilers have faced and their struggles in the second half are looming large. Expect Calvin Pickard to start Game 3 tomorrow.

Finally: More overtime for what continues to look like the most unfair series of Round 1. Tyler Seguin was the hero for Dallas in a tight-checking 2-1 win over Colorado, giving the Stars a second straight OT victory to take the series lead 2-1. Dallas has led for only 1 minute, 8 seconds all series, but has the lead. As I said, the Central is just unfair. This one feels like it’s going seven.

Way-Too-Early Conclusions

(James Carey Lauder / Imagn Images)

OK, who’s winning it all?

Here’s a quick rundown of where every series stands at this point.

Up 2-0: CAR, LAK, TOR, WSH, WPG
Up 1-0: FLA
Up 2-1: DAL
Tied 1-1: MIN, VGK
Down 1-2: COL
Down 0-1: TB

Down 0-2: EDM, MTL, NJD, OTT, STL

Every team that’s up 2-0 in its series was a favorite coming in, and in those situations, the historical odds are now overwhelmingly in those teams’ favor. NHL teams that started a series at home going up 2-0 have a 262-34 record, meaning they advanced 89 percent of the time.

That has noticeably increased the Stanley Cup odds for Carolina, Los Angeles, Toronto and Winnipeg from what they were entering the postseason. Click here for Dom Luszczyszyn’s updated probabilities after last night’s games.

Teams with best Cup odds

1. Winnipeg 21% (up from 14%)
2. Carolina 14% (from 10%)
3. Toronto 13% (from 11%)
4. Florida 12% (from 8%)
5. Los Angeles 9% (from 7%)
6. Dallas 9% (from 7%)

Introducing our MVP watch 

Yes, yes, I know. I did warn you early on that it was way too early for all this.

But I like the idea of keeping an eagle eye on the Conn Smythe candidates throughout the playoffs, with a ranking every week or two. So here’s my early contribution, even though it may be hilariously out of date by the time we reconvene.

1. Adrian Kempe, Los Angeles
2. Mark Scheifele, Winnipeg
3. Matthew Tkachuk, Florida
4. Frederik Andersen, Carolina
5. Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota
6. Logan Thompson, Washington
7. Anthony Stolarz, Toronto
8. Thomas Harley, Dallas
9. Tomas Hertl, Vegas

Coast to Coast

❓ Why are some NHL playoff games being called from an off-site broadcast studio? Rob Rossi digs into a troubling trend for coverage early in the playoffs.

🥅 Lou Lamoriello is out on Long Island. Who could take on the daunting task of fixing the Islanders? Art (“The Stapler”) Staple has an in-depth look at a wild group of candidates, including some huge names.

🏒 The Rangers, meanwhile, are bullish on Chris Drury and locked him up on a multiyear extension despite a horrendous year for the Blueshirts. Interesting times in New York right now.

📢 Your team not in the playoffs? Corey Pronman has you poor people covered with a massive 2025 NHL mock draft projecting all 32 first-round picks before the lottery.

What to Watch

📺 Maple Leafs @ Senators
7 p.m. ET on ESPN / SN
Is there a full-scale blue-and-white invasion in Ottawa, or do the Senators effectively keep out the Gilmour-jersey-clad hordes of Leafs fans that often fill the Canadian Tire Centre? Does Anthony Stolarz decapitate Ridly Greig? And can Toronto take its first 3-0 series lead in a couple decades? Lots to watch for in Game 3 of the Battle of Ontario.

📺 Golden Knights @ Wild
9 p.m. ET on TBS / SN
Everyone and their dog/cat/hamster seemed to pick Vegas in this one after Minnesota struggled in the second half of the season. But the Wild played long stretches without three of their best players — including Kaprizov — and when healthy are better than a typical wild-card team. After the Wild decisively won Game 2, maybe this series surprises and goes the distance? The more Game 7s the better, I say.

📺 Jets @ Blues
9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN / SN
Can the Blues get back in the series? The hottest team in the NHL coming into the playoffs could be on the brink of elimination after Game 3, but the good news is this has been a close series and this is St. Louis’ first chance at home. The bad news the Jets D has been solid and Connor Hellebuyck looked rather Hellebuyckian in Game 2.

The full NHL playoff schedule is here. Try streaming games like these for free on Fubo.

The Ultimate Comebacks

(David Maxwell / AFP via Getty Images)

In celebration of Landeskog’s feat

If you immediately thought of Mario Lemieux’s incredible return when it comes to long-awaited comebacks, you’re not alone.

Lemieux’s unretirement remains an iconic moment in NHL history, as the Penguins pulled his banner down when he came back in December 2000 after more than 1,300 days away.

Here are the others on the list, with Landeskog’s hiatus length landing fourth all-time (minimum 700 career games played):

1. Jim Peplinski: 2,000 days, returned April 15, 1995, with CGY
2. Mario Lemieux: 1,341 days, returned Dec. 27, 2000, with PIT
3. Uwe Krupp: 1,036 days, returned Oct. 20, 2001, with DET
4. Gabriel Landeskog: 1,032 days, returned April 23, 2025, with COL
5. Peter Forsberg: 1,018 days, returned Feb. 11, 2011, with COL

Also: In addition to Landeskog, the two NHL captains who have made comebacks after 1,000-day absences were Syl Apps (1,009 days) on Nov. 4, 1945, with the Maple Leafs and Sid Abel (1,045 days) on Feb. 16, 1946, with the Red Wings. Those two were away from their teams serving in the Canadian Armed Forces during World War II.

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(Photo of Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen: Isaiah J. Downing / Imagn Images)

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