OTTAWA — The Maple Leafs have a chance to become the first team to reach the second round of the 2025 playoffs on Saturday night. All it will take is keeping a desperate Senators team at bay in Game 4 in front of what predicts to be another raucous crowd.
Up 3-0 in their first-round series, the Leafs know that Game 4 presents equal parts opportunity and challenge.
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“We’ll get the hardest game,” Leafs head coach Craig Berube said of Game 4. “That’s always been the way.”
Game 4 could end up revealing a lot about this Leafs group. Win and the narrative could change about this Leafs core letting their foot off the gas in possible series-clinching games. Lose and the seeds of doubt could emerge. The Leafs have to like where they’re at in the series — having played well at five-on-five when the score is tied — but they’re now coming up against a team with nothing to lose.
Here’s what we’re watching for ahead of Game 4.
The likely lines
Knies — Matthews — Marner
Holmberg — Tavares — Nylander
McMann — Domi — Pacioretty
Lorentz — Laughton — Järnkrok
McCabe — Tanev
Rielly — Carlo
Benoit — Ekman-Larsson
The Leafs will roll with the same lineup in Game 4 as the one that produced an overtime win in Game 3. That means Max Pacioretty will keep his spot after being a healthy scratch in Games 1 and 2. Pacioretty made his presence felt physically in his return to the lineup on Thursday night, matching Bobby McMann with a team-high seven hits.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Berube tweak the second and third lines at some point, what with Pontus Holmberg’s limited fit offensively with John Tavares and William Nylander and Max Domi’s iffy fit in the third-line centre spot. The first line will again go head to head with a Shane Pinto-led Sens matchup line, a matchup they slowly turned in their favour in Game 3. The group on the back end will continue to remained unchanged. —Siegel
The big questions
Can the Leafs close out the series?
Remember the term “killer instinct” that was in vogue around the Leafs a few years back? It re-surfaced again Friday morning with the Leafs on the verge of the series sweep. For reference: this core’s playoff record when they have the opportunity to win a series? One win, 10 losses. And so the narrative went that this core lacked the ability to put the boots to a team when they had the chance. Sweeping the Senators, in Ottawa, would be a step toward changing that narrative.
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But a loss on Saturday? That would make that aforementioned record look even worse. And it would certainly lead to more questions about this team’s ability to prevent teams from clawing back into series.
“You can learn (killer instinct) and apply it,” Berube said after Friday’s practice. “Most veteran athletes have it. They understand. But all we can do is understand what you need to do every shift as a player. The battling, the competitiveness you need.” — Kloke
Will another unlikely hero emerge?
After a career-low eight goals during the regular season, Domi came out of nowhere to pot the overtime winner in Game 2. Two nights later it was Simon Benoit, he of six career goals in the NHL, who fired a point shot past Linus Ullmark to win Game 3, also in overtime. Will we see another unlikely contributor emerge in Game 4, someone like Holmberg or Steven Lorentz? Or will it be a combination of the stars and Anthony Stolarz who push the Leafs over the top and into the second round? — Siegel
Can Anthony Stolarz stay hot?
Stolarz’s recent record is impeccable: the veteran goalie is 11-0 in his last 11 starts with a .944 save percentage.
That evidence alone would suggest Stolarz should keep the barn doors closed in Game 4 and give his team a chance to win, once again. He deserves credit for being arguably the best player in the series so far.
Yet it’s still worth wondering how Stolarz is handling the workload. He made just four starts in the regular season on one day’s rest. During one of those starts, he left after the first period and would eventually have a knee procedure and miss nearly two months. But it’s worth noting he also pitched a shutout in another one of those starts.
Brady Tkachuk’s third-period goal in Game 3 was the first goal Stolarz probably should have stopped this series. It was the first sign of Stolarz not being superhuman.
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Then there’s the noise that emerged around Stolarz yesterday. The Senators clearly are grasping at straws, yes. But all eyes will be on the Leafs goalie in Game 4. — Kloke
Pre-game reading
• What we’re seeing as the Leafs look to sweep.
• The Senators are in a deep hole. How they could climb out? Claude Giroux knows the way.
• How did the Leafs get here? James Mirtle has six reasons.
• Simon Benoit, the unlikeliest Leafs hero.
How to watch
The puck drops in Ottawa at 7 p.m. ET. (Sportsnet, CBC, TVAS, TBS, truTV, Max)
(Photo of Anthony Stolarz: Richard A. Whittaker / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
This news was originally published on this post .
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