Who will win the Kentucky Derby? These 6 key factors might help you decide

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There are two big reasons why people think the Kentucky Derby is hard to predict, and each of them is misguided.

One is simply the sheer volume of noise enveloping an event where 13 percent of Americans say they are somewhat or very likely to place a bet, and where at least that many seem to have theories about how to make money on it. Most of us don’t run into actual railbirds too often anymore. But this is the time of year when all kinds of would-be experts emerge at your family barbecues and from your satellite radios, ready to talk about bloodlines, broodmares and ambient temperatures when the track gets muddy in Santa Anita.

Second, the Run for the Roses seems like it’s particularly prone to hugely surprising finishes in recent years. After all, in 2022, Rich Strike, an 80-1 longshot, shocked the world with a late charge and pulled off the second-biggest upset in Derby history. And just last year, Mystik Dan (18-1) edged Sierra Leone and Forever Young in the Derby’s first three-horse photo finish in 77 years. Who can make sense of it all? Well, we can, by scrutinizing some key performance markers using past results.

Here’s a basic fact to understand about the Kentucky Derby: Nobody gets in by accident, or just because of deep pockets or favoritism. At least not anymore. For the past dozen years, horses have qualified by gaining points from top finishes in a series of more than 30 races over the seven months leading up to the Derby. (Churchill Downs then typically issues invites to the top 18 horses in the overall standings, plus two foreign competitors.) When you see them on the first Saturday in May, these are generally accomplished, well-known and thoroughly analyzed steeds. And there are usually sound reasons for the deep underdogs among them to be facing long odds.

Since “The Road to the Kentucky Derby” qualifying system launched in 2013, favorites have won half the time. Indeed, at average odds of 3.2-1, implying a 24 percent win rate, they have provided good value. Several dominant competitors have entered recent Derbies and only bolstered their reputations, including American Pharoah (2015), Nyquist (2016) and Justify (2018). Rich Strike and Mystik Dan are the only horses to win at odds of greater than 15-1, apart from races where there were disqualifications. The Derby just isn’t quite as chaotic as your crazy uncle or most touts would like you to believe.

But you can still hunt for a potential winner who isn’t a favorite, or at least fill out your exacta with some smarts. To help, I have once again followed the same basic method that my Underdogs partner Jordan Brenner and I have applied to college basketball, soccer and other sports: I’ve studied the characteristics shared by successful longshots in past derbies, then looked for the horses carrying those traits in 2025.

The winning characteristics

Speed

Hey, there’s a reason they call it a race. Raw speed doesn’t guarantee a horse will win the Kentucky Derby, but a lack of speed sure can cause a horse to lose. There are various ways to measure how fast a horse travels; one standard method is called the Beyer Speed Figure, which adjusts racing times for distance and track surface, and is listed in the Daily Racing Form for all American horses. Top equines can earn Beyer Speed Figures from 100 to 115; Washington Post columnist Andrew Beyer, who invented the metric about 50 years ago, estimated that Secretariat would have scored 139 at the Belmont Stakes in 1973.

More importantly for our analysis, 84 percent of Kentucky Derby winners since 2000 (21 of 25) have had peak Beyer Speed Figures of at least 95, a mark reached by 12 of this year’s 20 entrants.

Stamina

While the Kentucky Derby is the shortest of the three Triple Crown races at 1 1/4 miles, that’s still 440 yards longer than its competitors have typically ever raced in their lives. So some handicappers like to forecast the Kentucky Derby by analyzing how horses perform down the stretch of their last prep race before Churchill Downs. (The idea being that if they’re still running well at the finish line at that race, they could keep going at the Derby.)

Jennie Rees, publicity director for Kentucky Downs, popularized the “final fractions theory,” which looks for horses that run the closing 1/8 mile of their final prep race in under 13 seconds or the last 3/8 mile in less than 38 seconds. Since 2000, 76 percent of Derby winners (19 of 25) have hit the former mark, while 68 percent (17 of 25) have bested the latter. This time around, seven participants have beaten both fractional targets heading into the Derby.

Winning prep races

Speaking of races leading up to the Derby, it’s long been true that most Kentucky Derby winners have finished first in at least one major contest during the weeks leading up to Churchill Downs. But not all stakes are created equal — and I’m not just referring to Jeff Ruby. Eight races of the Road to the Derby take place in March and April, all of them offering 100 standings points and large prizes to their victors. But three — the Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby and Arkansas Derby — have produced nine Kentucky Derby winners in the 12 years of the new qualifying system.

It’s a small sample size. But there might be something about the conditions (or location, facilities or personnel) at those tracks that makes participating in these races particularly good prep for the Derby. (Hmm, maybe the ambient temperature in Santa Anita does matter!)

Post position

Bigger ovals have longer perimeters than smaller ovals — that’s just geometry. And for every “path,” or body-width, that a horse adds inside clearance at Churchill Downs, they have to run an extra 25 feet. So it would be best to hug the rail — if possible. But the Kentucky Derby has a huge field of 20 horses, which means if you’re already inside when the crowd cuts left, you can get bumped and blocked in traffic. But if you don’t get inside quickly enough, you will be forced into wide, lengthy turns. Hence, it’s best to start off in the middle.

Gates 5 through 10 have produced 42 winners, or nearly half of the races since the Derby first deployed a starting gate in 1930. And only the fifth and 10th gates have launched horses to victory in more than 10 percent of runs.

Style

The Derby’s size and length combine to force another balancing act upon horses and jockeys, specifically rushing ahead of the pack to run free and preserving enough energy to close strong. And historical results again point to a sweet spot.

Brisnet, a thoroughbred performance data company owned by Churchill Downs, evaluates horses according to their running styles. A Brisnet designation of “E,” for example, means “Early,” for a horse that likes to apply speed quickly and set the pace of races. “E/P” stands for “Early/Presser,” meaning horses that hang back for a bit but eventually challenge for the lead. “S” is for “Sustaining,” indicating horses who show their strength late in closing races.

While these grades are somewhat subjective, the results are pretty clear. The Kentucky Derby is a very difficult race to win if you fall too far back. Even Rich Strike, who really seemed to come out of nowhere, was in third place when he began his late run in 2022. And 67 percent of winners in the qualifying-points era (eight of 12) have had style ratings of “E” or “E/P.”

The contenders

There just so happens to be exactly one horse who has all of these indicators working in his favor this year, and — hold on to your silks — it’s Journalism, the 3-1 favorite in the race.

We’ll take just one moment to claim that a win for this great horse would actually be a triumph for underdogs. Trainer Michael McCarthy and jockey Umberto Rispoli are each at the Derby with a genuine contender for the first time. And they’re trying to hold off Bob Baffert — whose horses have six official Derby wins — trainer of Rodriguez (12-1) and Citizen Bull (20-1). Baffert is returning from a three-year suspension due to a failed blood test by Medina Spirit, the 2021 winner that was subsequently stripped of that victory.

The numbers also suggest there’s a real long shot lurking in this year’s field, along with two genuine wild cards.

Grande is on the board at 20-1, right at the edge of the longest odds worth taking in the Derby. But he’s fast and getting faster — his speed scores have improved throughout this year. He likes to lead, but he also closed from seventh place to finish second in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial on April 5. He will be starting from Gate 10. And it can’t hurt that he shares an outstanding sire (Curlin) with Journalism, or that his trainer, Todd Pletcher, has won the Derby twice (in 2010 and 2017). If history is any guide, the market hasn’t yet caught up with Grande’s potential.

Luxor Café (15-1) is undefeated in Japan, where he won his last four races; the key question is whether crediting his stats is like trusting numbers from the MAC in college football. Four reasons make him worth a serious look. His speed scores — though we can’t be sure how well they translate from Japan — seem to show velocity comparable to Journalism. He has experience running through heavy congestion, including races with fields of 16 and 14 horses. He’s starting from Gate 7. And the performance gap between American and Japanese horses is shrinking. Forever Young nearly won the Derby last year, so Luxor Café doesn’t deserve too stiff a tariff for being from overseas. (Besides, he is the son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, and was bred in Kentucky.)

Finally, there’s Baeza, who has no odds because he’s not in the race — not yet, anyway. An alternate for the Derby, Baeza needs one horse to drop out or be scratched to make the field. But check it out: He has a higher peak Beyer Speed Figure than any horse other than Journalism in the field. And he placed second to Journalism in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, where he ran the final furlong in just 12.6 seconds. Baeza needs some luck just to get a chance, but he could give the contenders a real run for their money.

Which is all we want for any of us this weekend, right?

(Photo of Mystik Dan (R), crossing the finish line ahead of Sierra Leone and Forever Young to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

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