Fantasy Baseball Today Waiver Wire: Shane Baz’s breakout in question following latest outing, and more

Given how well he was pitching to open the season – and how poorly the Royals were hitting – Shane Baz‘s seven-run effort Thursday stands as one of the most surprising negative results of the season. 

But not to me. 

Earlier this week, I wrote about Baz’s breakout, and why I wasn’t necessarily buying it. The column focused mostly on Baz’s massive strikeout rate, and how it wasn’t backed up by any of the underlying metrics we usually look at for strikeouts: 

“Baz has thrown 56.8% of his pitches in the strike zone in the early going, compared to an MLB average of 48.7%; hitters are making contact on 83.7% of their swings on pitches in the strike zone, compared to the MLB average of 82.0%; and he is generating a swing on just 24.1% of pitches out of the strike zone, compared to the MLB average of 28.5%. So, he’s throwing a ton of pitches in the strike zone, he isn’t generating many swings and misses on those pitches, and he isn’t generating many swings on the pitches he throws out of the strike zone, which all sounds like a pretty bad strategy for getting strikeouts.

And it is. Since 2015, there have been four other pitchers with an In-Zone% greater than 53%, a chase rate below 25%, and an In-Zone Contact% above 83%, and here’s what those four pitchers managed for their strikeout rates:

That’s a small sample size because there just aren’t many pitchers who have done this specific trio of things before. Lower the threshold to a Zone% above 52%, a chase rate below 26%, and an in-zone Contact% above 82%, and you get 18 names, who collectively sported an 18.9% strikeout rate, with the highest coming in at just 23.2%.”

On Thursday, Baz’s command took a step back, as just 49% of his pitches were thrown in the strike zone, and his inability to generate chases out of the zone or whiffs in it really reared its ugly head – he generated a swing on just 21% of his pitches out of the zone and a whiff on just 9% of swings on pitches in the zone. And that’s how you get to three walks and only one strikeout against a slumping lineup.

None of this means Baz can’t be a useful Fantasy option moving forward, but I do think it means his apparent ascension to the ace level was probably a mirage. His four-seamer is a good pitch, but his curveball hasn’t emerged as a go-to whiff pitch, and his slider continues to be largely nonexistent – he threw it seven times Thursday and didn’t get a single whiff and had just one called strike with it.

Baz is certainly a talented pitcher, and given how much time he’s missed due to injury, it’s clear he isn’t a finished product. But his hot start to the season might have tricked some into believing he was. That’s what makes Thursday’s start so tough to swallow. 

Here’s what else you need to know from Thursday’s action:

Friday’s top waiver-wire targets

Tanner Houck, SP, Red Sox (53%) – Just when we thought we were out … well, I’m not gonna say we’re all the way back in, but there was some interesting stuff going on with Houck Thursday. Houck came out red-hot, throwing his sinker at 95.8 mph on average, harder than he has thrown it in any game since 2022. His velocity was up around the same amount on his full arsenal, and it led to 11 swinging strikes on 86 pitches, with six strikeouts, no walks, and only four hits over seven innings of one-run ball. Houck has been pretty awful since the All-Star break of last season, but if he can sustain this higher level of velocity, maybe that’s enough to get him back on track. If Tony Gonsolin or Lucas Giolito aren’t available, I’m okay with adding Houck to see if this was something real. 

Shelby Miller, RP, Diamondbacks (10%) – I think Kevin Ginkel could have a chance to emerge as the Diamondbacks closer at some point if Justin Martinez‘s shoulder injury costs him significant time – we already know A.J. Puk will be out until at least June after he was transferred to the 60-day IL with his elbow injury Thursday. But when the Diamondbacks entered the late innings with a two-run lead Thursday, Ginkel pitched the eighth (allowing a run on two hits and a walk), while Miller got the ninth. He shut the door on just eight pitches and should be viewed as the team’s top closer option right now. 

Gunnar Hoglund, SP, Athletics (5%) – The A’s are calling Hoglund up for his MLB debut, and the former first-round pick gets a nice soft landing spot against the Marlins. Hoglund isn’t really a top prospect anymore, but I will note that FanGraphs did rank him as the No. 87 prospect in their final update after spring training, citing his increased velocity for his rise. He’s sitting about 2 mph up from last year so far in Triple-A and has allowed just eight runs while striking out 30 in his first 29.2 innings of work. Hoglund is by no means a can’t-miss prospect, but if he fares well against the Marlins, there could be some runway for him to emerge as a useful Fantasy option. 

Colin Rea, SP, Cubs (19%) – I don’t have much faith in Rea as a pitcher, but things are going very well for him right now. He limited the Pirates to just two runs in six innings Thursday, which actually raised his ERA to 1.46 for the season. Of course, he only had two strikeouts in this one and historically hasn’t been much of a strikeout pitcher, hence my lack of faith in the long run. In the immediate future, though, Rea looks poised to continue his strong run, with his next three matchups looking like this: vs. SF, vs. MIA, vs. CHW, @CIN, and vs. CIN. He won’t be great in all of those outings, and there’s a chance he’s just bad in them. But if you want to stream, the schedule is set up to give Rea a chance to be a really useful option.