SEC spring overreactions: Tennessee should sail into CFP even without Nico, South Carolina’s flash falls flat

The offseason has arrived, and with it comes the annual SEC ritual: dreaming big. Every fan base, no matter how delusional, is buzzing with hope. Why not a Heisman for LaNorris Sellers? Why can’t Vanderbilt shock Texas after Diego Pavia already took down a No. 1? And why shouldn’t Bobby Petrino’s return send Arkansas to Atlanta?

Summer is a murky time for predictions. The transfer portal reshapes rosters overnight, and projections made before fall camp often feel more like guessing games than grounded analysis. Still, that won’t stop fans from spinning the wheel.

Football rules the South, and so does the cycle of offseason optimism. The takes are wild, the confidence irrational, but hope — like the SEC’s obsession with championships — is undefeated.

Playoff run or bust: Kalen DeBoer is one of the winningest coaches in college football, so let’s not act like a nine-win debut at Alabama means he’s suddenly forgotten how to build a program into a title contender. Yes, the pressure is on in Year 2 as Nick Saban’s replacement, but he has a roster built to win and, more importantly, a staff he can trust to implement his plan. The addition of Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator gives us hope for a more consistent plan, along with quarterback Ty Simpson, who frankly fits the system better than Jalen Milroe last year. I’m of the belief the Tide will win more than the 9.5 total set at FanDuel Sportsbook (+110), which means a playoff spot for the Tide.

Arkansas

The University of Attrition: Arkansas led the SEC with 40 defections via the transfer portal since the end of last season, but that’s nothing new for the Hogs. They lost 30 players last year, too. The good news is quarterback Taylen Green and play-caller Bobby Petrino are back, so you can expect the offense to at least be exciting. The bad news is it’s foolish to predict just how good or bad the Razorbacks will be this season (that’s not stopping us!) because of the roster’s fluidity. Go ahead and break down the roster heading into preseason camp, but how will the new pieces all fit together? That’s gotta be an uneasy feeling for coach Sam Pittman, who was on the hot seat last season. Reaching a bowl game will be difficult.

Just Auburn Being Auburn: I have long argued that Auburn is the most magical place in the SEC. The Tigers can go from a winless season in the SEC to playing for a national championship in a single calendar year (2012-13), but rarely does the rollercoaster break down into a slow trolley ride through a valley, outside the view of the national landscape. That’s where Auburn sits today. The Tigers have not recorded a winning record since 2020, the program’s worst stretch since the 1940s. Hugh Freeze enters Year 3 with the talent to contend in the SEC thanks to top-10 recruiting classes and impressive portal hauls. Is Jackson Arnold the quarterback to lead Auburn back to prominence? The vibes are high on the Plains, and a resurgence is on tap this fall. Don’t count out a 10-win season.

DJ Lagway will lead Gators to glory: Florida is not deep on defense, and Billy Napier might not be the best game-day coach, but the ingredients on offense are potent enough for a surprising turn in Gainesville. The Gators were left for dead last September, but somehow rebounded to win eight games against a brutal schedule. If the dynamic Lagway can stay healthy behind an offensive line that returns four starters, why can’t they improve upon last season and challenge the likes of Georgia and LSU on the schedule?

Georgia

Bulldogs’ receivers will be among the nation’s best: Get ready for a significant turnaround for Georgia’s passing offense after leading the nation in dropped passes last season. The additions of Zachariah Branch and Noah Thomas didn’t just provide an immediate upgrade in the receiver room. Still, they will also alleviate pressure off Gunner Stockton in his first full season as the starting quarterback. Watch the film of Stockton in the Sugar Bowl closely, and you’ll discover a gamer who delivered some fine passes under tremendous duress. If Georgia could win the SEC in 2024 with an anemic receiver corps, imagine what they could do this fall with one of the SEC’s best groups.

Do something, anything: Boy, Kentucky has fallen on hard times since Mark Stoops nearly left in the middle of the night for Texas A&M – and Aggies boosters and fans’ cries helped nix the deal. The offense hasn’t quite clicked with portal quarterbacks, but the hope is Zach Calzada will change that this season as the Wildcats restructured the roster with new additions. The schedule is demanding, yes, but just getting back to a bowl game would be an achievement after missing the postseason last year for the first time since 2015.

LSU

Brian Kelly is still elite: It’s easy for the masses to hate on a successful person when they fall on hard times. For Brian Kelly, winning less than 10 games in a season is a failure. Pssh, most coaches would love to trade shoes with BK. His seven-season streak of 10-win seasons ended last fall, but the roster is loaded this season thanks to the return of quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and a deluge of NIL money helping secure the No. 1 transfer portal class. Kelly will get the Tigers back in the SEC title conversation this fall.

Bowl projections: Big Ten, SEC dominate College Football Playoff field with Ohio State, Texas leading charge

Brad Crawford

Explosive offense … loading: Jeff Lebby promised a high-scoring and exciting offense with his offshoot of the Air Raid system. We didn’t get that in his first year (85th in scoring) and the Bulldogs went 0-for in the SEC. Blake Shapen might not get a lot of preseason hype but he’s a solid quarterback capable of so much more in this offense, and we’re expecting it after adding 27 new players from the transfer portal. That offense is going to need to be explosive with four (!) playoff teams from last season on the schedule. Thirty points is a must every week.

Get ready for a slide: Missouri has been on a tear under Eli Drinkwitz, but we expect a quick slide back to the mean after a 21-5 record the last two years. Quarterback Brady Cook is gone, and so are the top three receivers, including Luther Burden, and the starting running back. Still, Drinkwitz believes this is the most talented roster he’s coached at Mizzou. He signed the No. 7 transfer class and likely found his new QB in Penn State‘s Beau Pribula and running back with ULM’s Ahmad Hardy, but will the pieces gel? No one knows a roster better than the head coach, but we have our doubts that the Tigers will record a third straight 10-win season. A bowl game shouldn’t be a problem, though.

Sooners will shock the SEC: The Sooner Schooner has new wheels. Brent Venables cleaned house, fortified his roster and claimed play-calling duties on defense for himself. The debut season in the SEC was a mess and the pressure is on for an immediate turnaround. After the spring, I feel more comfortable in saying the Sooners will be much better after leading the nation in sacks allowed and ranking among the worst on offense (4.8 yards per play) thanks to an influx of transfers, including Washington State‘s John Mateer, arguably the best quarterback in the portal. 

Rebels’ first playoff team is this one: The pressure was immense last season at Ole Miss, and it showed with losses to Kentucky and Florida derailing a run to the College Football Playoff. Expectations are lower this season with new starting quarterback Austin Simmons and a slew of newcomers, but have you seen the incoming portal class? The Rebels hoarded receivers with four pass catchers responsible for 400-plus yards on their previous teams last season. Now that the pressure is off, might this be the year the Rebels break into the playoff party? The schedule is favorable for a surprising run.

More flash than sizzle: South Carolina will be an enjoyable team to watch this fall and has two of the best players in college football, but week-to-week consistency could be difficult with an uneven group at receiver. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers can take over any game, and honestly should have beaten Alabama last season – and LSU if he was healthy. Sellers needs to become a more reliable passer and find a way to make Nyck Harbor, his favorite target late last season, an All-SEC receiver. I love the defense with All-American Dylan Stewart and a fiery secondary. Still, I get a funny feeling that the Gamecocks start season hot, only to slide late against a tough schedule that goes LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M in consecutive games and then finishes with Clemson.

There’s a reason the win total is set at 7.5. 

Easy schedule will lead to playoff appearance: Talk all you want about Nico Iamaleava leaving for UCLA, but I’m not sure that matters much for the Vols. I hate the term “system quarterbacks,” but Josh Heupel’s offense provides that structure for a signal caller. UCLA transfer Joey Aguilar will be just fine, and he’ll have some wondering if the Vols won the de facto trade with the Bruins. The MVP at Tennessee is the schedule-maker. The Vols get Georgia and Oklahoma at home, and arguably their most challenging games are on the road at Alabama and Florida. That’s at least a nine-win season — and the win total at FanDuel is currently at 8.5.

I love Tennessee’s chances at snagging a playoff berth.

Texas

Arch Madness will live up to the hype: Oh, it’s easy to refuse to buy into the hype of yet another Manning becoming an elite quarterback, but we’re guzzling Texas’ Gatorade. Arch Manning is the answer to what has kept the Longhorns from winning an SEC and national title: a consistently explosive offense. Quinn Ewers was just fine, but ranking 29th in scoring just isn’t going to cut it come playoff time. Manning’s duality as a runner, along with an ultra-talented roster, will lead to some of Texas’ most impressive offensive performances of the last decade. Buy stock now while you can. 

Texas A&M

Prepare for darkhorse chatter: Texas A&M returns the nation’s sixth-most production and quarterback Marcel Reed is a dynamic threat, and should get many more opportunities to produce big numbers with all five starters returning on the offensive line. Everybody loves coach Mike Elko, and we do too, but let’s not ignore that 1-4 finish last season and the incredibly daunting schedule that includes road trips to Notre Dame, LSU and Texas. Get ready for folks to slap the “dark horse” sticker on the Aggies, but we’re not buying it with that schedule.

Vanderbilt

Diego Pavia can’t do it all: Diego Pavia successfully defeated Alabama to knock off the No. 1 team and then beat the NCAA to secure another year of eligibility. But now that the word is out about the surprising Commodores, don’t expect a repeat of last season. Revenge games line the schedule, particularly on the road against Virginia Tech and Alabama. The ‘Dores might be more talented overall but the schedule is also tougher.