The 2025 AdventHealth 400 is the final Cup Series event before the All-Star Race, and you’ll find nothing but All-Stars atop the 2025 NASCAR at Kansas odds board. Kyle Larson (+375) is the favorite in the 2025 Kansas NASCAR odds at BetMGM Sportsbook for Sunday’s race at 3 p.m. ET, followed by Ryan Blaney (+650) and Tyler Reddick (+700). However, Kansas Speedway has seen six different winners over its last six races, so you shouldn’t ignore those further down the 2025 AdventHealth 400 odds. Bubba Wallace (+1800) has one of those victories, and you could also consider Alex Bowman (+2200) as a NASCAR at Kansas longshot since he has five top-10s over his last six starts at the track. Larson will be on the pole.
Before entering any 2025 Kansas NASCAR picks, be sure to see the latest 2025 NASCAR at Kansas predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model. Developed by SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, the proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times and has nailed a whopping 20 winners since 2021, including two winners in 2025.
SportsLine simulated the AdventHealth 400 2025 10,000 times. Here are the three NASCAR longshots to target, according to the model:
Ross Chastain (+1800 at BetMGM)
Chastain is coming off a runner-up at Texas Motor Speedway, which is his best finish at any race since the last time he stepped onto Kansas Speedway. The five-time Cup Series winner’s last victory came at the fall Kansas race as he posted the fastest time in the practice session before leading the race for 52 laps on the way to the checkered flag. That continued a string of recent successful starts at the track as Chastain enters the AdventHealth 400 2025 with four top 10s over his last six Kansas races. He’s also led for multiple laps in four of those races, and his average finish of 8.7 over this stretch is topped by just three other drivers. Chastain is a steal at BetMGM at +1800.
Joey Logano (+2000 at BetMGM)
After four victories last season, Logano notched his first in 2025 a week ago at Texas. That will make him a coveted NASCAR sleeper at BetMGM, as will the fact that he’s one of the most successful drivers in Kansas Speedway history. He has three career victories at the track, which trails only Denny Hamlin (four) for the most in Cup Series history. Logano clearly feels comfortable on 1.5-mile tracks like Kansas as his triumphs there is a microcosm of his overall success on intermediate tracks. Since the start of 2022, Logano’s five wins on intermediate circuits, like Kansas, are the second-most in NASCAR, with the win on Texas’ 1.5-mile track a week ago included in that.
Chase Elliott (+2000 at FanDuel)
Elliott counts himself as a NASCAR Kansas champion, courtesy of him becoming the youngest (22) Kansas race winner in Cup Series history in 2018. But that win only tells a part of his dominance of the track as his average finish of 10.1 at Kansas is the best in the sport. That’s not with a small sample size, either, as he has 18 starts there, with each of the last four resulting in top 10 finishes. He’s also part of the winningest team in NASCAR Kansas history as Hendrick Motorsports has a record nine victories at the speedway. When you add in that Elliott is having a superb 2025 season, sitting fourth in the NASCAR standings, and he’s a longshot worth investing bets on at +2000 at FanDuel.
More top NASCAR at Kansas expert picks, longshots revealed
You’ve seen the NASCAR longshots from the model. Now, see the full 2025 AdventHealth 400 leaderboard, including forecasts for who finishes first. Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 20 winners, including Chase Elliott’s victory at Bowman Gray and Kyle Larson’s win at Homestead.
You can also view expert advice before locking in your NASCAR at Kansas picks. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Steven Taranto’s picks, including an epic longshot of over 80-1, all from an expert who nailed 17 NASCAR winners last year.
2025 NASCAR Kansas odds, drivers, lineup
Kyle Larson +375
Ryan Blaney +650
Tyler Reddick +700
Denny Hamlin +800
William Byron +800
Christopher Bell +900
Ross Chastain +1800
Bubba Wallace +1800
Joey Logano +2000
Chase Elliott +2000
Alex Bowman +2200
Chris Buescher +2200
Ty Gibbs +2200
Chase Briscoe +2500
Josh Berry +3000
Kyle Busch +3000
Brad Keselowski +4000
Carson Hocevar +4000
Austin Cindric +5000
Ryan Preece +6000
Michael McDowell +6000
Daniel Suarez +8000
Corey Heim +8000
Erik Jones +10000
Noah Gragson +10000
Zane Smith +15000
Ricky Stenhouse +15000
Austin Dillon +20000
AJ Allmendinger +20000
John Hunter Nemechek +25000
Todd Gilliland +25000
Justin Haley +25000
Jesse Love +50000
Cole Custer +50000
Ty Dillon +75000
Shane Van Gisbergen +100000
Cody Ware +200000
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