Velocity is the holy grail all pitchers chase in today’s game. In pursuit of it, they may not risk their lives, but they quite literally risk their limbs. With the year-over-year stats at Baseball Savant, we can actually spot the extreme outliers in gains and dips in 2025 vs. 2024.
The results question the whole scheme. They do not prove beyond a reasonable doubt that extreme changes in velocity significantly impact performance or even rise to a civil standard of preponderance of evidence.
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I co-wrote an article eight years ago detailing why chasing velocity by maxing out on fastballs is the leading cause of elbow surgeries.
From that Wall Street Journal article: “There’s no magic number on the radar gun that puts a pitcher at risk. It varies case by case. The real issue is pitchers throwing their hardest. “If a guy tops off at 96 and pitches the whole game (there), he’s adding a lot more stress on his elbow than if he varies his velocity,” says Dr. Glenn Fleisig, research director of the American Sports Medicine Institute.”
Fleisig compares the body’s ligaments — including the one in the elbow that tears and requires pitchers to miss a season recovering from Tommy John Surgery — to a rubber band. Pull it back as hard as you can, and it will start to tear. Pull it less, he says, and “you’d never tear the rubber band.”
But if it’s worth it when it comes to success, you can at least see why it’s chased so doggedly, consequences be damned. But does it lead to success? Judge for yourself:
I looked at the dozen pitchers who lost the most velocity on their fastball, according to Baseball Savant, in 2025 vs. 2024. The range was minus-4.0 mph to minus-1.2 mph. The average ERA of the MPH losers in 2024 (when they threw harder) was 3.96. This year, throwing an average of 1.8 mph slower (but all at least 1.2 mph slower), the pitchers have averaged an ERA of 3.72. The average WHIP was faster in 2024, at 1.31 vs. 1.25 now. Most shockingly, Ks are up marginally — 21.4% when throwing harder vs. 22.6% with the velocity decline.
Top Velocity Decliners (2024 to 2025)
|
Player
|
YOY MPH ↓
|
ERA 2024
|
ERA 2025
|
WHIP 2024
|
WHIP 2025
|
K% 2024
|
K% 2025
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-4 |
3.14 |
3.13 |
1.302 |
1.244 |
25.1 |
23.2 |
|
|
-3.2 |
3.46 |
3.15 |
1.212 |
1.25 |
20.3 |
21.7 |
|
|
-1.8 |
3.58 |
4.11 |
1.371 |
1.435 |
21.7 |
23.2 |
|
|
-1.7 |
4.87 |
3.45 |
1.51 |
1.489 |
14.4 |
11.7 |
|
|
-1.5 |
3.8 |
1.61 |
1.107 |
0.766 |
23.9 |
28 |
|
|
-1.5 |
5.28 |
4 |
1.533 |
1.194 |
18.6 |
21.9 |
|
|
-1.4 |
5.92 |
5.32 |
1.454 |
1.268 |
15.3 |
14.1 |
|
|
-1.4 |
2.03 |
5.91 |
1.035 |
1.533 |
22.7 |
18.4 |
|
|
-1.3 |
4.16 |
2.83 |
1.462 |
1.221 |
22.2 |
25 |
|
|
-1.2 |
3.57 |
6.16 |
1.199 |
1.51 |
24 |
23.6 |
|
|
-1.2 |
3.96 |
3.17 |
1.233 |
0.989 |
26.5 |
30.5 |
|
|
-1.2 |
3.72 |
1.8 |
1.297 |
1.114 |
19.5 |
30.3 |
|
|
-1.8 |
3.96 |
3.72 |
1.31 |
1.25 |
21.2 |
22.6 |
What is happening? I was ready to say even marginal gains across the board, which I wholeheartedly expected, were not worth the injury risk. But to significantly risk potentially career-ending injuries for not only measly gains, but actual losses, is madness. Fantasy managers should stop chasing velocity, even though MLB teams and pitchers insist it can be a paradigm shift in performance. My advice is not to pay for it. If I get it for free, fine. We’re not betting on long-term health in our game, even though the injury risk in a given season is also higher.
“OK,” you’re asking, “but what about the gainers?” Did they at least improve dramatically? You’ll see names including the two Hunters, Brown and Greene, along with Jesus Luzardo, and you’re forgiven if you thought your bias would be confirmed.
Top Velocity Gainers (2024 to 2025)
|
Player
|
YOY MPH ↑
|
ERA 2024
|
ERA 2025
|
WHIP 2024
|
WHIP 2025
|
K% 2024
|
K% 2025
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.8 |
4.75 |
6.21 |
1.335 |
1.68 |
14.7 |
16.7 |
|
|
1.6 |
2.75 |
2.36 |
1.018 |
0.81 |
27.7 |
34.7 |
|
|
1.4 |
3.49 |
1.43 |
1.271 |
0.83 |
25.1 |
32.2 |
|
|
1.2 |
3.32 |
3.1 |
1.244 |
1.176 |
20.3 |
28.5 |
|
|
1.3 |
4.74 |
5.95 |
1.381 |
1.271 |
24.2 |
27.4 |
|
|
1.3 |
3.12 |
8.04 |
1.142 |
1.7 |
20.7 |
15.8 |
|
|
1.1 |
5.1 |
4.41 |
1.245 |
1.316 |
19.8 |
19.7 |
|
|
1.1 |
5 |
1.95 |
1.245 |
1.15 |
21.2 |
27.7 |
|
|
1.1 |
4.86 |
4.29 |
1.368 |
1.643 |
23.8 |
27.3 |
|
|
1.1 |
3.06 |
5.33 |
1.06 |
1.41 |
21.6 |
22.9 |
|
|
1 |
6.52 |
4.5 |
1.63 |
1.25 |
20.4 |
18.2 |
|
|
1.3 |
4.25 |
4.32 |
1.27 |
1.29 |
21.8 |
24.6 |
Alas, even with the group of pitchers who have increased velocity, the average ERA is actually higher with the extra gas this year — 4.32 to 4.25. The WHIP is also higher — 1.29 to 1.27. Ks are up a lot with the increase in fastball juice — 24.6% vs. 21.8% for the group last year when they threw significantly slower.
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If we use median, we get an ERA edge for the velocity gainers and a much bigger K% increase, but no change in WHIP. The median with the biggest mph losers either has no impact or increases the edges at the slower average speed. So, even with medians, the assumption that velocity matters had a 2-4 record in the six key stat categories. With averages, the record in those six stats was 1-5. And again, the extreme velocity gainers didn’t even sweep Ks, which I would have conceded.
(Top photo of Nathan Eovaldi: Alika Jenner / Getty Images)
This news was originally published on this post .
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