Ranking NFL’s second-year quarterbacks likely to take a leap in 2025: Bears’ Caleb Williams leads way

In today’s NFL, Year 2 has become the season when an eventual star quarterback comes into his own, finds his groove, and parlays rookie-year flashes into consistent high-level play. 

There was Carson Wentz in 2017, Patrick Mahomes in 2018 and Lamar Jackson in 2019. Josh Allen took a mammoth third-year leap, although in his second season, the rookie-year mishaps melted away into signs of the imminent MVP-vote-getting season ahead. 

In 2021, Joe Burrow built on a strong rookie season cut short due to injury, leading the NFL in completion percentage and yards-per-attempt average en route to leading the Cincinnati Bengals to a Super Bowl appearance. In 2022, Trevor Lawrence went from colossal disappointment as a rookie to an impressive sophomore campaign, and the Jaguars won the AFC South title and an epic playoff game.

The 2023 season didn’t yield a breakout star at quarterback, which was probably more about the down 2022 draft class of quarterbacks than anything else. In 2024, we saw one of the most shocking Year 2 eruptions in recent memory, when Bryce Young went from rookie-year disaster, to early Year 2 benching, to downright outstanding after returning to the field following the demotion. 

Of course, past results from other quarterbacks don’t guarantee the second- or third-year eruption will continue. But let’s rank the passers from the 2024 draft class by likelihood of elevating their game to franchise-altering status. 

Probably going to stay steady and stable

4. Bo Nix, Broncos

Among first-, second-, and third-year quarterbacks who made at least 10 starts in 2024, Nix finished fourth in my young QB grades project in 2024, and his highest mark of the season, a lone “A” came in Week 18’s demolition of the Chiefs‘ backups. He did receive three “A-” grades and raised his level of play as the season progressed. 

Not counting Week 18, Nix finished 27th in Big-Time Throw rate, with a solid albeit far from spectacular 3.4%. His 76% adjusted completion rate was second only to Jayden Daniels among rookies. Young quarterbacks are typically sacked often. Nix wasn’t in 2024, and that’s one of the most encouraging elements of his first NFL campaign, as his pressure-to-sack rate was a mere 13.1%, and anything remotely close to 10% is elite, even for veteran passers. 

But Nix turned 25 in February. He’s only two months younger than Brock Purdy and right around a year and a half older than Young and C.J. Stroud. Sean Payton runs a very quarterback-friendly, quick-strike offense, and Nix typically knows where to go with the football. As a rookie, he attempted the third-most play-action passes and third-most screens. A decent amount of his efficiency was scheme-related.

The Broncos didn’t add much to their receiver group, and only added RJ Harvey to the backfield via the draft. I don’t expect Nix to fall off. But as someone who believed his individual impact on a Denver team that made the playoffs in 2024 was slightly overrated, I don’t foresee a giant leap forward either. 

How much better can he get?

3. Jayden Daniels, Commanders

Daniels essentially rewrote the rookie quarterback record books in 2024 with a dazzlingly calm yet explosive first season en route to the Commanders advancing all the way to the NFC title game on the back of their young instant star. 

He had the fifth-highest adjusted completion percentage (79.1%) among all quarterbacks and averaged a seismic 6.0 yards per rush on 148 scrambles and designed runs in the regular season. He epitomized a rookie playing beyond his years from within the pocket and during crunch time. Daniels’ 108.9 rating on third downs was the fourth-best among starters, and his 115.9 rating in the fourth quarter and overtime ranked third in the NFL. Crazy calm, cool, and collected. 

And all the Commanders did this offseason was trade for Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil then use a first-round pick on Oregon blocker Josh Conerly Jr. 

While Washington’s new regime has done a marvelous job building around Daniels at the outset of his career, it will be a legitimate challenge for him to play considerably better than he did in 2024. However, his Turnover-Worthy Play rate was a mere 1.7%, so a big interception regression to the mean — in this case, more picks — isn’t necessarily imminent. In the end, if Daniels has a “Year 2 breakout” from where he was on his runaway path to the Offensive Rookie of the Year, he’ll squarely be in the MVP conversation. 

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The most likely

2. Drake Maye, Patriots

Maye is a magnificent talent. Let’s start there. He’s a sizable athlete with a plus arm and outstanding athleticism when the play breaks down. While it only came on 54 attempts, he averaged a seismic 7.8 yards per rush as a scrambler in 2024. 

And he’s in the middle of a franchise overhaul in New England. Jerod Mayo out. Mike Vrabel in. The Patriots drafted the cleanest offensive tackle prospect, Will Campbell, at No. 4 overall, and added vets Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins to the receiver group before selecting Kyle Williams in the third round of the draft. 

This environment is clearly improving. 

Maye’s flashes were more awe-inspiring than his game-to-game play. In my young QB grades project of a season ago, Maye had two “A-” games, two “D+” games, three in the “B” range, and four games somewhere in the “C” range. His TWP rate of 3.7% was the second-highest among all rookie quarterbacks, only lower than Spencer Rattler. 

His BTT rate of 3.7% was only slightly higher than NIx’s, however, Maye has drastically more upside, as he’s a bigger, more impressive athlete and only turns 23 right before the start of the regular season. We’ll see a steadier Maye in 2024, especially because New England’s offensive line will be more reliable and his targets are moderately better. 

1. Caleb Williams, Bears

Check those Williams stats and tell me he had a bad rookie season. The numbers certainly didn’t align with the general vibe or reputation of the No. 1 overall pick during his debut campaign in the NFL. Probably because it ended with 10 straight losses, and he was sacked a league-high 68 times. 

Vitally, Williams flashed. Need that as a rookie. He quietly had six games with a passer rating over 100, four of which came in outings in which he threw the football more than 25 times. His 3.9% BTT percentage was the same as Daniels. He needs to be more accurate and learn to live to see the next play more frequently than he did as a rookie. No doubt. 

The Bears have given Williams a litany of support offensively, most namely with the hiring of Ben Johnson who has a genuine case for most creative/progressive play-designer in football. Ask Jared Goff. 

Under Johnson’s watchful eye, the Lions finished third, seventh, and third in dropback EPA per play the past three seasons. And it’s not as if Chicago has failed to give Johnson — and Williams — the pieces to make his offensive vision come to life. The Bears made three major offensive line acquisitions in the offseason in Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson. 

Then in the draft, in the early stages of Round 2, dynamic YAC receiver Luther Burden III was selected. And that came after the club selected premier tight end prospect Colston Loveland at No. 10 overall. Can’t forget returnees D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze and Cole Kmet either. 

Williams has the inherent talent and the environment to experience a major breakout in 2025.