Free NBA playoff picks, player props, odds, SGP best bets: Knicks vs. Pacers Game 5 same game parlay

The Indiana Pacers have won six straight road games since dropping their first away contest in the 2025 NBA Playoffs and given their dominance on the road, away from Indiana would be a poetic place to send the Pacers to their first NBA Finals since 2000. Pair Indiana’s road dominance with the Knicks being 3-5 at Madison Square Garden this postseason and the SportsLine model is projecting value in the Pacers to cover their 4-point spread as underdogs on betting sites on Thursday for Game 5 of the 2025 Eastern Conference Finals with an 8 p.m. ET start. 

The Pacers lead the series 3-1 and despite Josh Hart being removed from the Knicks starting lineup, he still played 36 minutes and the model projects him to be a major part of the game plan for Game 5. The model expects Hart to be a viable piece for Thursday Pacers vs. Knicks same-game parlay plays for online sports betting. The Knicks are favored by 4 points, and the over/under is 223.5 points in the latest Knicks vs. Pacers odds from DraftKings, and the latest DraftKings promo code gives users $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. See more Pacers vs. Knicks props here.

SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh is the expert behind the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model is 23-11 (68%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns. You can find more analysis from Oh and other SportsLine data analysts on their Inside The Lines blog.

Here are the model’s top-three picks in the Knicks vs. Pacers SGP on Thursday:

• Indiana +4 (-108)
• Myles Turner Over 19.5 points + rebounds (-130)
• Josh Hart Over 13.5 points + assists (-105)
• SGP pays out +500 at DraftKings (odds subject to change)

Indiana +4 (-108)

The Pacers have been underestimated throughout the postseason and they are one game away from emerging as the best team in the Eastern Conference. The 3-point disparity and turnover margins have been two key differences in this series, with the Pacers shooting better than 40% from deep in their three wins compared to 20% in their one loss this series. They’ve been a combined +16 on the turnover differential in their three victories this series as well and the model projects the Pacers to shoot 37% from beyond the arc Thursday compared to New York’s 34% projection from deep. The Pacers have won six straight road games, including the first two at Madison Square Garden, and the model projects Indiana to cover the spread almost 60% of the time.

Myles Turner Over 19.5 points + rebounds (-130) 

Turner has played at least 33 minutes in each of the last three games and although he’s coming off his lowest points + rebounds total of the series in Game 4 with 13 points and three rebounds, he’s had at least a 19 points + rebounds total in the other three contests. Turner finished at exactly 19 in two of those affairs, which wouldn’t win this wager, but he’s been right at or Over this number the majority of the series. Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam each scored 30 points in Game 4, which the model doesn’t expect to happen again on Thursday, and it projects Turner for a 23.4 points + rebounds total after he averaged 15.6 points and 6.5 rebounds (22.1 total) during the regular season. Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) is questionable and if he plays, he’ll likely be less than 100%, which could give Turner a matchup edge for scoring and rebounding. 

Josh Hart Over 13.5 points + assists (-105) 

Well, some Knicks fans got what they wanted in Game 4 with Mitchell Robinson starting over Hart, however, coach Tom Thibodeau made it clear he still values Hart as a crucial part of the team. Hart played 36 minutes off the bench, nearly double Mitchell Robinson’s 19 minutes, as the majority of the game featured the same five players it has all season long. Hart had 12 points and one assist to finish just below this number. Despite coming off the bench, he still played his second-most minutes of the series and given some of Thibodeau’s stubborn tendencies in the past, don’t be surprised if Hart returns to the starting lineup on Thursday. The model projects Hart for 16.3 points + assists on Thursday as he’s averaged 19.4 points + assists over his last 20 home games when playing against a team with a winning record. 

Want more NBA picks for today?

You’ve seen some of the model’s top NBA playoff best bets for Thursday. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times. 

Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today’s top NBA picks from expert Bruce Marshall, who’s on a sizzling 140-110-2 (+1905) roll on his last 252 NBA picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up more than 19 units.

Finally, SportsLine expert Jason La Canfora, who is 106-79-1 (+1795.5) over his last 186 NBA picks, has a pair of NBA picks locked in for Thursday. He is 5-2 over his last seven Pacers ATS picks and has picked a side for Game 5. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from an expert who’s up nearly 18 units.