Cam Ward is a quarterback drafted No. 1 overall. Ashton Jeanty is an elite running back prospect drafted sixth.
That already gives them an edge in the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year race. Voters love quarterbacks, and Jeanty already has gotten a ton of attention (and he’ll get plenty of touches from the Las Vegas Raiders too). Both are co-favorites at BetMGM to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +250, and rightfully so.
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That doesn’t mean they’re locks. Ward is joining a bad Tennessee Titans team that might not be able to support an award-winning quarterback. Jeanty should be good with the Raiders, but they were remarkably bad running the ball last season and maybe that was due to factors other than just subpar running backs.
The door isn’t closed for someone else to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Here are some possibilities, with odds from BetMGM:
Jaguars WR Travis Hunter (+600)
The one thing Hunter will have in his favor is publicity. He’s going to be a big story this season if he can pull off a two-way act on offense and defense that has been incredibly rare in NFL history. Hunter playing productive snaps at cornerback shouldn’t impact the Offensive Rookie of the Year race, but it probably would. The issue Hunter might have is volume. Brian Thomas Jr. is coming off a great rookie season and he’ll be a huge part of the passing game again. Will there be enough targets for Thomas to put up another 1,250 yards and Hunter do do enough to push him ahead of someone like Jeanty? Probably not, but Hunter is too talented to ignore that possibility.
Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan (+1300)
McMillan was a bit of a surprise pick by the Panthers at No. 8 overall. Not that he wasn’t worth the pick, but the Panthers had one of the worst defenses in NFL history last season. The fact that they passed on defensive needs to take McMillan is a clear indication of how much they like his talent. The Panthers could be in a lot of high-scoring games this season due to that defense, which will help McMillan’s numbers. Carolina doesn’t have anyone standing in his way of being the team’s top target earner either, like Hunter does in Jacksonville. It’s a little challenging to talk yourself into McMillan being the OROY this season, but he has a path to it.
Chargers RB Omarion Hampton (+1400)
The odds on Hampton keep dropping, and for good reason. He is an excellent contrarian pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Yes, the Chargers have Najee Harris, but did they really draft Hampton 22nd overall to play the average Harris over him? Hampton was productive at North Carolina, has all the traits of a feature back in the NFL, is with a team that really likes running the ball and should be in the playoff mix. Hampton is going to have a really good rookie season, and he’ll be in the mix for the OROY award.
Running back Omarion Hampton should have a big role for the Los Angeles Chargers as a rookie. (Photo by Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images)
(MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images via Getty Images)
Broncos RB RJ Harvey (+2000)
It’s a good year to be a rookie running back in the AFC West. Harvey was a second-round pick so he doesn’t have the draft capital of Jeanty or Hampton. But he will have opportunity. The Broncos don’t have anyone blocking him from being the clear No. 1 all season. Sean Payton usually likes using more than one back and maybe that cuts into Harvey’s production, but the Broncos also might reach a point in which it’s clear Harvey is their best back and the other backs fall back into minimal roles.
Giants QB Jaxson Dart (+2500)
Dart is behind Tyler Shough and Shedeur Sanders in the OROY odds. Shough is a quarterback who might start all 17 games, so he’ll have a shot, but he’s also going to be on a Saints team that everyone believes will be terrible. Sanders shouldn’t be anywhere near the 22-to-1 odds he has, considering he’s likely to begin training camp as the fourth-string quarterback and his best-case scenario is probably getting a start in the second half of the season for a bad Browns team, if he ever gets a start. He’s 10th in the odds only because he has name recognition.
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Dart at 25-to-1 is much more interesting. Right now he doesn’t have a path to start early in the season, but it could change quickly. He is a first-round pick and could make things interesting with a good preseason. It’s not like anyone in New York is dying to see Russell Wilson or Jameis Winston start games. He plays in New York, which helps his visibility in an award race. It’s at least reasonable to imagine a scenario in which Dart starts early on and generates some excitement for a big-market team, leading to plenty of hype that would keep him in the OROY race. At least there’s a more viable lane for Dart than there is for Sanders.
Cowboys RB Jaydon Blue (+5000)
OK, this one is way down the list. But there might be opportunity. The Cowboys didn’t do too much to improve at running back this offseason. Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders are two unexciting veterans at the top of the depth chart. Blue was a fifth-round pick but many late-round running backs have emerged to be productive rookies. The Cowboys’ offense is good enough; Rico Dowdle had more than 1,000 yards rushing in it last season. Whether it’s Blue or someone like Jaguars rookie running back Bhayshul Tuten, if there’s a true long shot that will win OROY it’s probably a mid- to late-round running back.
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