Dodgers, Padres meet in rematch of last October’s ‘best’ teams. What can we expect?

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On the penultimate day of last October, the Los Angeles Dodgers won a cathartic World Series. Yet, to hear them tell it, their biggest test arrived weeks earlier.

A National League Division Series against the San Diego Padres brought heated competition and TMZ-level extracurriculars. Then-Padres left-fielder Jurickson Profar robbed a home run and later had baseballs and beer cans hurled in his direction. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts publicly accused Padres third baseman Manny Machado of targeting him with a throw into the dugout. Between the chalk lines, the Dodgers found themselves pushed to the brink of elimination. Then they rallied behind the strength of their bullpen, tossing 24 consecutive scoreless innings to stun the Padres and end the series.

In November, after lifting a trophy, Dodgers star Mookie Betts described the 2024 Padres as “way more talented than we were. … They were the best team in baseball.”

Monday night at Petco Park will bring a rematch of the sport’s defending champions and the challenger that came closest to ousting them. To preview the three-game series, The Athletic convened a discussion between Dodgers writer Fabian Ardaya and Padres counterpart Dennis Lin.

Lin: This continues to feel like the No. 1 rivalry in baseball, even after the Dodgers and Padres experienced very different offseasons. The Dodgers had a parade and spent a bunch more money. The Padres spent only a little and dealt with an ownership dispute. Now, to the surprise of most people, the Padres trail the Dodgers by only one game in the National League West standings. But let’s go back once more. Games 4 and 5 of the NLDS seem like the definition of a sliding-doors moment. Where do you think the Dodgers would be if they hadn’t pulled off those back-to-back shutout wins?

Ardaya: Well, Roberts wouldn’t be the team’s manager, most likely. It’s something Roberts wasn’t as willing to acknowledge in the moment, but he felt it. Everyone felt it. Three consecutive first-round exits would have been difficult for any manager to survive. That series cemented his legacy in Los Angeles. But it’s hard to see a scenario in which the Dodgers would’ve spent less had they lost, considering how much they spent even after winning a World Series. What about the Padres? Just about everyone associated with the Dodgers said San Diego was the toughest challenge they had in their run. Do the Padres go all the way if they had settled the series in four games?

Lin: The Padres believe they would have. The rest of the postseason field, as the Dodgers demonstrated, was underwhelming. Before the offense delivered a pair of fatal clunkers, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill were red-hot. Joe Musgrove’s torn elbow might have made it difficult for the Padres to survive subsequent longer series, but it felt like San Diego’s best shot in years — decades, maybe — at winning its first championship. Especially because we now know Peter Seidler’s widow and brothers were already fighting in the background. Had the Padres won it all, perhaps the sides would have resolved things more quickly and poured more resources into a title defense.

Anyway, the Padres aren’t going away just yet. This should be an interesting summer. What is going on with the Dodgers? What’s kept them from gaining more distance in the West?

Ardaya: It’s been a familiar sight for the Dodgers. Once again, their pitching staff is worn thin by injuries. Their injured list is 14 names long. Their three biggest pitching acquisitions the last two seasons (Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki) are all on the IL. The pitching staff the Dodgers will roll into San Diego with looks much different from the one the team originally envisioned. Their lineup might be the best in baseball, churning more than five runs per game. That’s what has kept them afloat, going 10-9 to start a 29-game stretch in which they play nothing but legitimate postseason contenders.

Lin: Not much unites these teams and fan bases, but the Padres can relate — at least a little. They’re not yet halfway through a stretch of 26 games in 27 days. Their best starting pitcher, Michael King, could be sidelined into July because of a pinched nerve that locked up his throwing shoulder. Their most experienced starter, Yu Darvish, still might be weeks away from his season debut.

And their lineup isn’t the best in baseball. The offense has been anemic for close to a month, Tatis and Merrill have simultaneously slumped, the Padres haven’t won a game by more than two runs since May 14, and their lack of depth is glaring in left field and behind the plate. Somehow, though, they’ve won nine of their past 14 games. Their rotation is holding up well despite the inexperience at the back of it. A weary bullpen deserves a ton of credit. So does Machado. Speaking of bullpens, what’s plaguing old friend Tanner Scott?

Tanner Scott is 1-2 with a 4.25 ERA and 11 saves in 29 2/3 innings pitched this season. (Jerome Miron / Imagn Images)

Ardaya: It might be as simple as throwing too many strikes. Scott has shown better signs over his last couple of outings, which he attributes to a mechanical tweak suggested by Dodgers pitching coaches Mark Prior and Connor McGuiness (along with bullpen coach Josh Bard). He was flying open too early, causing him to miss locations over the heart of the plate. His stuff is still strong, but he’s not putting it in spots to get swing-and-miss and chase. Instead, it’s a lot of hard contact.

It’s certainly not ideal to have Scott struggling while much of the Dodgers bullpen is on the shelf due to injury, but they have time to sort things out, and there have still been enough flashes to believe in Scott in the first year of his massive four-year deal. The Dodgers joked this winter about being sellers at the deadline. Now, I imagine they’ll at least pursue a reliever by the time July 31 rolls around. I’m sure A.J. Preller will keep San Diego busy, right?

Lin: I’ll go out on a limb and say Preller is going to do something very Preller-y. King and Dylan Cease are set to become expensive free agents in a handful of months. Musgrove should return next year, but Darvish might not have many bullets left in his late-30s arm. With the Padres still in striking range, it’s understandable that Preller is again thinking big on the trade market. I’d be shocked if he trades top prospect Leo De Vries to address the black hole in left field. I wouldn’t be surprised if he moves fellow top prospect Ethan Salas for, say, Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran — although the stress fracture in Salas’ back could complicate any potential deal involving the young catcher.

Of course, there’s a good chance the Padres can’t afford a player of Duran’s caliber. They have multiple needs and limited remaining trade capital. Not that they need to be reminded they’re going up against the deepest and richest franchise in the sport. Shohei Ohtani hasn’t even thrown his first pitch yet in a Dodgers uniform. How’s that coming along?

Ardaya: So, Ohtani will be taking the mound Tuesday at Petco Park — just a few hours before first pitch. It will be Ohtani’s third time participating in a simulated game as he continues his buildup as a pitcher. More reinforcements are coming. Snell appeared to throw a bullpen session recently, his first time throwing off a mound since April. Glasnow was scheduled to throw his second bullpen session over the weekend. Emmet Sheehan is in the final stages of his rehab assignment after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year. The bullpen already has Kirby Yates and Michael Kopech back and could add Edgardo Henriquez to that group relatively soon.

Believe it or not, the Dodgers have just two starters left from their Opening Day rotation. Even more surprising, one of those two is Dustin May, whose star-crossed and injury-plagued career has delayed what has been seen as a rise to stardom. May will start Monday, having already logged a career-high 61 2/3 innings this season. The results have been mixed for May, but the stuff remains elite and he has posted for every start. That’s a massive win for Los Angeles. Who is starting for San Diego?

Lin: Nick Pivetta will take what has quickly become one of his favorite mounds. The former Red Sox pitcher signed a backloaded four-year deal in spring training. If he keeps up what he’s since done, he’ll opt out after the 2026 season and earn a larger contract. Much of his early success has come at Petco Park, where he has a 1.69 ERA in six starts. (He has a 4.94 ERA in as many road starts.) It should be a fun matchup from the first pitch. During his short time in San Diego, we’ve learned Pivetta is an outwardly intense competitor.

(Top photo of Mookie Betts in Game 4 of the NLDS: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)

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