- C.J. Stroud’s deep ball regression highlights Texans’ offensive risk: After leading the league in deep passing efficiency in 2023, Stroud and the Texans plummeted to 29th in EPA per deep attempt last season. With a downgraded offensive line and Tank Dell sidelined, reviving that vertical element will be critical to Houston’s success in 2025.
- Trevor Lawrence gets a fresh start under Liam Coen after injury-riddled seasons: Lawrence has graded well in structure but hasn’t produced at the same level since his 2022 breakout. With a new offensive coordinator and improved health, Jacksonville could be a sneaky alt-line value if their quarterback returns to form.
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Estimated Reading Time: 11 minutes
Now that the draft is behind us and rosters are mostly set, it’s a great time to shift focus to futures markets in search of betting value. In the past, tying up money for months came with an opportunity cost. But with the rise of new platforms, including those offering interest, betting early on futures can be a more worthwhile investment than ever.
We’ll go division by division, highlighting the most valuable bets. While not every team will get a full breakdown, we’ll touch on each as we work through the board.
To set the foundation for our analysis, we’ll look at team fundamentals from last season, using PFF’s own Timo Riske’s chart on team performance as a baseline.
The AFC South was one of the NFL’s weakest divisions last season, with all four teams finishing below average offensively and only the Texans standing out defensively. Houston, however, showed serious promise in Year 1 under C.J. Stroud, making the playoffs in back-to-back seasons and winning postseason games in each. With a new offensive coordinator and a healthy Nico Collins, the Texans will look to recapture some of that 2023 magic.
Jacksonville dealt with major injuries and coaching turnover, with Trevor Lawrence missing much of the season due to a shoulder injury and a concussion. The Jaguars responded by overhauling their offensive staff heading into 2025.
Anthony Richardson underwhelmed in 2024 and was eventually benched for veteran Joe Flacco, setting up a make-or-break year for both Richardson and head coach Shane Steichen. Meanwhile, the Titans are entering a full rebuild with No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward. While rookie quarterbacks often struggle, last year’s Commanders are a reminder that unexpected playoff runs can happen. That’s the beauty of football—sometimes, you just never know.
Houston Texans
Central question: Can the Texans find their deep passing game?
The 2023 Texans featured one of the NFL’s most dynamic offenses, driven largely by the league’s most explosive deep passing attack. C.J. Stroud led the NFL in both PFF deep passing grade and EPA generated on deep throws, adding nearly 90 total points on those attempts — 1.2 EPA per attempt.
For context, that total was the fifth-highest in any season since 2019 and the second-highest on a per-play basis. This mattered even more because Stroud was actually a negative EPA player on non-deep passes in both 2023 (-0.04 EPA per play) and 2024 (-0.03 EPA per play).
Given how rare and high-impact the 2023 deep passing performance was, some regression was expected. But the drop-off in 2024 was steep. The Texans added just 10 total points on deep throws, ranking 29th in the NFL at 0.14 EPA per play. And that came despite Stroud finishing with the second-highest deep accuracy rate in the league. Injuries to the wide receiver room — an essential part of any downfield success — were a major factor. And with Tank Dell out for 2025, the challenge to revive that explosive element remains.
This news was originally published on this post .
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