The rival Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres play the rubber game of their three-game series when they collide on Wednesday at Petco Park in San Diego. In the series opener on Monday the Dodgers edged the Padres, 8-7. Last night San Diego pounded L.A., 11-1. Entering Wednesday, the Dodgers (40-28) lead the air-tight National League West by a half game over the Giants (39-28), with the Padres (38-28) one game back.
Lefty Justin Wrobleski (1-2, 7.20) is scheduled to take the mound for Los Angeles, while Randy Vasquez (3-4, 3.69) is set to start for San Diego.
Sportsbooks have set Wrobleski’s total strikeout player prop at 3.5 (Over +104, Under -125), while Vásquez’s is 2.5 (Over -175, Under +133). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Wrobleski Over 3.5 as a 4.5-star play on its five-star scale and one of its three best pitcher strikeout props for Wednesday. The model rates Vásquez Over 2.5 as a 3.5-star play.
The model has found more value elsewhere on Wednesday’s 15-game schedule. In addition to Wrobleski Over 3.5, the model has one pitcher strikeout player prop rated at 5 stars and another rated at 4.5. Here they are:
Eric Lauer Over 2.5 strikeouts (-125) vs. Cardinals (2:15 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.5 strikeouts
This is the model’s only 5-star play for Wednesday. The Blue Jays lefty (2-1, 2.08) has mostly been a long reliever this season but has started two games. In one of those starts he struck out five in 3.0 innings against the Tigers. For the season, he is averaging almost a strikeout an inning (24 in 26.0 innings). On Wednesday he gets the opportunity to start again and will face a St. Louis club that has struck out 180 times against southpaws this season, the fifth highest total in the majors.
Justin Wrobleski Over 3.5 strikeouts (+104) vs. Padres (4:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts
This is a reachable number for the Dodgers lefty (1-2, 7.20), who is making his fourth start this season and gets a chance to make his case to stick in the Los Angeles rotation. He has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in each of his previous three starts this year and four of his eight starts last year. He is set to go against a San Diego club that doesn’t hit lefties (.234 battling average) as well as it hits righties (.255).
Robbie Ray Under 7.5 strikeouts (-135) vs. Rockies (8:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 6.2 strikeouts
This is a big number for the Giants lefty (8-1, 2.44), who is looking to become the first nine-game winner in the NL. Though Ray has been excellent this season, he has gone Under 7.5 strikeouts in seven of 12 starts this season. Also, hitter-friendly Coors Field hasn’t been kind to Ray over his career. In nine career starts in Denver, Ray has a 5.14 ERA.
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