Has Tottenham Hotspur’s appointment of Thomas Frank changed their 2025/26 top four odds?

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Thomas Frank has been announced as Tottenham Hotspur’s new manager, bringing a brief search for Ange Postecoglou’s successor to a close.

Spurs moved quickly to secure the Dane, who has a long list of admirers throughout the Premier League. This article from The Athletic details many of his strong points, making it clear why Spurs were willing to part with around £10m to secure him and his support staff.

But a quick look at the betting markets would suggest that, at least in the bookmakers’ eyes, this appointment barely moves the needle in terms of Spurs’ chances of success. Their odds to win the 2025-26 Premier League title haven’t budged, while their chances of making the top four have been shortened ever so slightly, from around 11/2 to 5/1. The persona of Frank is moving the public – but it’s not swaying the markets. Why?

We are delighted to announce the appointment of Thomas Frank as our new Head Coach on a contract that runs until 2028.

Welcome, Thomas! 🤍

— Tottenham Hotspur (@SpursOfficial) June 12, 2025

A step into the unknown

Sam Tighe

Despite Frank’s four years of experience and strong reputation within the game, this managerial appointment is a (relative) step into the unknown for Spurs.

Frank might even say that himself, given this season, he reportedly quipped, “I’d love to play like this” when discussing Brighton & Hove Albion’s swashbuckling playing style. He then admitted “I’d need another £100m, though,” per The Independent.

He did a phenomenal job not only keeping Brentford in the league but, at times, in the hunt for Europe, too. He did so by playing realistic football: reactive, counter-attacking and physical, with a focus on set pieces. In all four of his campaigns, the team averaged between 43.3 per cent and 47.7 per cent of possession per game. Their PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action; a statistic used to measure how aggressive teams press) always stayed between 10 and 12, indicating relative passiveness off the ball.

This is not only very different from the way his predecessor, Postecoglou, typically operated, but also quite antithetical to how the current top six operate: focused on possession, control and structured attack.

Based on his comments, the higher calibre of player he will now coach and the enhanced budget, he’s set to roll out a more Brighton-esque style. He gets all summer to plot it out, with no disruptions caused by missing superstars on international duty.

I’m excited to see what it looks like because, quite literally, I have no idea what it will look like. We have nothing to point to and say “that’s what Spurs are getting,” aside from perhaps some scraps left on the cutting room floor from his promotion season in 2021.

The players aren’t just pawns

Brett Koremenos

As I mentioned earlier, evaluating a manager working for a club that excels at player recruitment is challenging. Very few head coaches possess the skills to add value to their teams; most are often just a direct reflection of the talent at hand.

Spurs’ existing pool, however, isn’t among England’s elite. It’s easy to point to this season’s 17th-placed finish and conclude that the Lillywhites significantly underperformed across the board. But Postecoglou’s dishevelled cohort were quite unfortunate.

Though the team tied for 15th place in expected goal (xG) differential per 90 minutes, they were far more unlucky than bad at the start of the year. Then, as injuries started to mount and the UEFA Europa League became the sole focus, there was a noticeable decline in output – which is why Frank is now at the helm.

Postecoglou may have been a bit rigid in his tactical approach, but he wasn’t entirely to blame for Spurs’ forgettable domestic campaign. Son Heung-min is about to turn 33, having played over 33,000 league minutes. James Maddison is an excellent player but was only able to start 21 matches in the league this season.

For most teams, the midfield is the engine and Spurs have been sputtering in that area for a while. Yves Bissouma was hailed as the next big thing upon his arrival in North London. Spoiler alert: he’s not. The rest of Spurs’ midfield this past season were either injured, too young or below a Champions League-level side. Frank might be a good manager, but there’s only so much a head coach can do when forced to deploy Rodrigo Bentancur in 26/38 league games.

Attackers Brennan Johnson and Dominic Solanke ranked 23rd and 28th in non-penalty expected goals + expected assists (xG+xA) in the league this year. That’s a solid foundation, but the club needs more proven stars to consistently compete in Europe. Frank could refine a few rough edges in training, but by and large, his impact on Spurs’ odds for success will be dwarfed by more important elements, such as summer transfer business and avoiding injuries.

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(Photo of Thomas Frank: Alex Davidson / Getty Images)

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