The NASCAR Cup Series will make history on Sunday when the 2025 Viva Mexico 250 is contested at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in Mexico City. It’s the first points race that has ever been held outside the United States at NASCAR’s highest level and is another attempt by the sport to expand its global reach. New Zealand driver Shane Van Gisbergen gave NASCAR an international bump when he won the 2023 Chicago Street Race in his first NASCAR Cup Series start as a road ringer. Now, he’s a full-time Cup driver and the +330 favorite in the 2025 Viva Mexico 250 odds. He’s followed in the NASCAR in Mexico odds by Christopher Bell (+700), Tyler Reddick (+800), Kyle Larson (+800) and William Byron (+800).
The green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday and the race is scheduled for 100 laps around the 17-turn, 2.674-mile road course. Before entering any 2025 Viva Mexico 250 picks, NASCAR DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, or locking in NASCAR props on sites like PrizePicks, Sleeper Fantasy, and Underdog Fantasy, be sure to see the latest 2025 NASCAR at Mexico predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
The model began its 2025 season by calling Chase Elliott to win for a +300 payout at the Clash at Bowman Gray and was also high on Byron as a +2000 longshot at Daytona. Then it predicted Kyle Larson’s win in Miami for a +350 payout, Christopher Bell’s +600 triumph in the NASCAR All-Star Race and Denny Hamlin’s +650 victory in Michigan. In 2024, it nailed Larson to win in Las Vegas for a 21-5 sports betting payout and predicted Denny Hamlin’s wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4.
It also impressively nailed five of Larson’s wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 22 winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on betting apps and sportsbooks on those NASCAR picks could have seen huge returns. New users also have the opportunity to take advantage of the latest Bet365 promo code, Caesars Sportsbook promo code and Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.
Now, the model simulated the 2025 Viva Mexico 250 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Mexico City leaderboard.
Top 2025 Viva Mexico 250 predictions
For the 2025 Viva Mexico 250, the model is high on Michael McDowell, even though he’s a +2200 longshot in the latest 2025 NASCAR at Mexico odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 40-year-old is in his 18th season racing in the NASCAR Cup Series and he has two victories under his belt, including a win in the 2021 Daytona 500 and a road race triumph in the Verizon 200 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
McDowell began his racing career as an open-wheel driver and his comfortability on road courses has helped him stay competitive in NASCAR. Of the 45 career top-10 finishes that McDowell has recorded, 11 have come in road races. Earlier this season in Austin, he led three laps on his way to a solid 11th-place finish and he’ll be looking to Mexico City to jumpstart his season after only recording one top 10 over the first 15 races of the season. BetMGM is offering the best odds here for McDowell and you can also build in first-bet insurance with the latest BetMGM promo code.
The model has also revealed one of its surprising NASCAR prop bets for Sunday: Daniel Suarez finishes top five for a +200 payout. The only Mexican driver in the 2025 Viva Mexico 250 field, Suarez has had an underwhelming season by his standards after piling up two wins, 13 top fives and 32 top 10s over the last three years and making the NASCAR playoffs twice. He’s only recorded three top-10 finishes in 2025 and is 28th in the NASCAR standings but has a golden opportunity to win his way into the postseason on Sunday.
In addition to being the crowd favorite, Suarez has been a road racing specialist throughout his career. He won at Sonoma in 2022 and has recorded six of his 23 career top-five finishes on road courses. Earlier this season in Austin, he qualified fifth and earned points in each of the first two stages of the race, but a crash led to a 36th-place finish. Trackhouse Racing also had Ross Chastain finish just outside the top 10 in that race, so they should be able to provide some speed in Mexico City. The model sees +200 odds at FanDuel as plenty of value, and new users can also get the latest FanDuel promo code. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 NASCAR at Mexico picks
The model is also targeting three other drivers with Mexico NASCAR odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks, props, and projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.
So who wins the 2025 Viva Mexico 250, and which longshots are must-backs? Check out the latest 2025 NASCAR at Mexico odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full NASCAR Mexico projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 22 winners, and find out.
2025 NASCAR Mexico odds, drivers, lineup
See the full NASCAR at Mexico picks at SportsLine
Shane Van Gisbergen +330
Christopher Bell +700
William Byron +800
Tyler Reddick +800
Kyle Larson +800
Chase Elliott +1000
AJ Allmendinger +1200
Kyle Busch +1400
Daniel Suarez +1400
Chris Buescher +1600
Ross Chastain +1800
Michael McDowell +1800
Alex Bowman +2500
Carson Hocevar +2800
Chase Briscoe +3000
Ty Gibbs +3000
Austin Cindric +3500
Denny Hamlin +4000
Ryan Blaney +4000
Joey Logano +5500
Todd Gilliland +15000
Bubba Wallace +15000
Brad Keselowski +15000
Noah Gragson +20000
Ryan Preece +20000
Justin Haley +20000
Austin Dillon +20000
Zane Smith +25000
Cole Custer +25000
Josh Berry +30000
Riley Herbst +30000
Erik Jones +30000
Ricky Stenhouse +40000
John Hunter Nemechek +40000
Ty Dillon +100000
Katherine Legge +100000
Cody Ware +100000
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