NFC North 2025 preview, plus the Colts QB competition

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Inside: Key questions, breakout players and positions to watch in the NFC North, plus a look at the Colts quarterback competition.

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NFC North Preview

The NFC North was the league’s most competitive division in 2024, with historically impressive results leading to three playoff teams but zero wins. The Lions, Vikings and Packers hope to fix that in 2025, though the salary Chicago is paying Ben Johnson and the level of play he’s demanding from his Bears suggests this is a true four-horse race.

Let’s kickoff our 2025 season previews with the NFC North. BetMGM’s expected win totals are in brackets:

Lions (10.5 wins)

Key question: Can new coordinators replicate the success of Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn? 

History is littered with talent-rich teams struggling after losing two coordinators to head coaching gigs. The Eagles lost OC Shane Steichen and DC Jonathan Gannon after their 2022 Super Bowl run, resulting in one forgettable season before their replacements were fired. The 2013 Bengals (Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer), 2004 Patriots (Charlie Weiss and Romeo Crennel), 49ers in 1994 (Mike Shanahan and Ray Rhodes) also failed to win a Super Bowl after similar losses.

Before you write off the Lions, you should meet Detroit’s new OC John Morton and DC Kelvin Sheppard. And don’t forget about Dan Campbell.

Position to watch: Edge. 

Aidan Hutchinson was my Defensive Player of the Year before his Week 6 injury, after which the Lions traded for Za’Darius Smith. Hutchinson is healthy but Smith remains a free agent who wants to return. If Smith is back in Detroit blue, a weakness of the Lions — their pass rush outside of Hutchinson — becomes a strength. The surprise retirement of center Frank Ragnow should give Detroit the necessary cap space.

Breakout player: G Christian Mahogany. 

While WR Jameson Williams receives his annual offseason breakout chatter, his 1,000 yard, 7 TD 2024 precludes him from this category in my eyes. The Lion to know is Mahogany, a sixth-round pick in 2024 who impressed in spot starts last season; his 81.6 overall PFF grade ranked 7th among 136 qualifying guards. He’ll slide into the starting left guard role vacated by new Tennessee Titan Kevin Zeitler (86.5 PFF grade). Offensive line should remain a strength.

Better than in 2024? Maybe.

Detroit lost key players along their line and star coordinators but thankfully kept Hank Fraley, one of the league’s best offensive line coaches. If their defense can stay healthy, this remarkably talented team has top-five units on both sides of the ball. Don’t expect a noticeable decline.

Packers (9.5 wins)

Key question: Is Jordan Love good enough?

Aaron Rodgers was 27 when he won a Super Bowl. So was Brett Favre. Guess how old Love turns this year? Green Bay’s $220 million quarterback will need to improve after a shaky 2024 to join those Lambeau legends.

Position to watch: Receiver. 

Good luck finding a deeper room of receiving talent in the NFL — Green Bay even converted one to cornerback. The problem, as Josh Jacobs noted, is that there’s no proven No. 1 option. To address that, Green Bay drafted wide receiver Matthew Golden in the first round and Savion Williams in the third, with Golden impressing early at OTAs. One more reason for hope:

Breakout player: WR Jayden Reed.

Reportedly uncertain about Reed’s position as the team’s No. 1 receiver after the draft, Reed’s agent met with the team for clarity. Since then, all positive: “He’s been outstanding,” HC Matt LaFleur has said of Reed, whom The Athletic’s Packers beat reporter Matt Schneidman has said is “probably the most talented all-around receiver on the roster.”

Better than in 2024? Similar. 

Green Bay’s biggest loss was former Pro Bowl CB Jaire Alexander, whom they cut in early June to free up $17.1 million in cap space. Alexander was rarely healthy, but his departure means questions about their cornerback room remain. Otherwise, this looks like a slightly improved version of the 2024 Packers. If Love takes a step, this team could surprise in the playoffs.

Bears (8.5 wins)

Key question: Can Ben Johnson translate his offensive success to Chicago?

The most coveted coach across the past two cycles, Johnson’s fiery demeanor was the No. 1 takeaway from Chicago’s offseason program. But it’s one thing to run an offense while Dan Campbell leads the organization. It’s harder to do both. Just ask Josh McDaniels or Kliff Kingsbury.

Position to watch: Offensive line. 

Johnson was able to create a monster of an offense with a Detroit team thanks to one of the NFL’s best offensive lines and plenty of skill-position talent. Chicago has the latter, especially after using early picks on TE Colston Loveland and WR Luther Burden III, but they’ll need capable blocking after allowing a league-high 68 sacks last season. The Johnson-era regime wasted little time here, overhauling the line with five new players, including starters in LG Joe Thuney, C Drew Dalman and RG Jonah Jackson. 

Breakout player: QB Caleb Williams. 

Awful playcalling, a mediocre offensive line and a defensive-focused head coach hampered the No. 1 pick’s rookie year. Those have all been addressed, plus the Bears landed one of the best scheme fits in the draft: Loveland, who could be a higher-end version of Sam LaPorta, paired with D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze and Burden.

Better than in 2024? Definitely.

The scheme changes from Johnson and new DC Dennis Allen are positive, as are the additions of talent in the trenches and skill positions. The playoffs in year one might be a stretch, given the division, but a nine-win season would be their first above .500 since 2018.

Vikings (8.5 wins)

Key question: Is J.J. McCarthy an improvement over Sam Darnold? 

The Vikings chose to let Darnold walk to Seattle, turning to a 22-year-old sophomore in what will sort of be his rookie season. Minicamp returns are promising, with McCarthy impressing with his efficiency and his arm, comfort and command of the offense.

Position to watch: Quarterback.

Enough already? The Vikings also chose to forego the Rodgers show, instead going all in on McCarthy. When beat reporter Alec Lewis asked a colleague for their top-five list of needs for a winning season in Minnesota, their answer was telling: “McCarthy’s knee, McCarthy’s arm, McCarthy’s feet, McCarthy’s eyes and McCarthy’s mind.” The Vikings secondary also deserves a mention, though they could improve it by signing Jaire Alexander or Jalen Ramsey. 

Breakout player: McCarthy, of course. 

The world-class infrastructure that helped resurrect Darnold’s career and let Cousins shine is even stronger now. An improved interior offensive line, the return of star LT Christian Darrisaw and skill-position talent give McCarthy every tool needed. Expectations are rightfully high.

Better than in 2024? Yes. 

If the No. 10 pick of 2024 plays better than Darnold, who struggled until landing in Minnesota (and then faded down the stretch), this team could make noise in the playoffs for the first time in Kevin O’Connell’s tenure. It’s perhaps worth noting that McCarthy has lost just three games since graduating elementary school.

Richardson losing ground in Indy

The Anthony Richardson era consists of two forgettable seasons, plus plenty of injuries — he’s appeared in just 15 of a possible 34 games — and controversy, including the time he subbed himself out mid-game because he was, in his own words at the time, tired. Richardson was also benched for two games last year for a lack of game preparation.

He hasn’t improved, either. In 2024, Richardson finished with a 47.7 completion percentage, the lowest mark in the league and the worst mark in Colts history.

Enter Daniel Jones

The Colts declared an open QB competition in February, after which GM Chris Ballard signed Daniel Jones to a one-year, $14 million deal.

Indianapolis then made the criteria clear: “Take care of the football, make good decisions with the football and really move your offense down the field,” said Shane Steichen. “The guy who’s the most consistent doing that will win the job.”

Indianapolis offers Jones, the No. 6 pick in 2019, the first quality supporting cast of the 28-year-old’s career. Beat reporter Dan Duggan mentioned a lack of support in his detailed look at what went wrong with Jones in New York, adding this:

“I honestly think Jason Garrett (the Giants offensive coordinator from 2020-21) and Joe Judge (the Giants coach from 2020-21) might’ve broken him. They came in during his second year, and he got so concerned about turning the ball over that he became ultra-conservative, and he never really broke out of that, not even when (current Giants coach Brian) Daboll got here.”

One NFL offensive coach told The Athletic’s Mike Sando that Jones and the Colts were “a perfect match,” with Jones listed as the quarterback most likely to ascend in 2025 thanks to now being surrounded by one of the league’s better offensive supporting casts.

In that category, “The Athletic Football Show” gave the Colts a top-10 grade in their AFC rankings (remember, the AFC is the deeper conference there), with Derrik Klassen adding that the playcalling prowess of Steichen, who’s helped Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts shine, remains a positive in Indy.

Richardson was once hand-picked by this Colts regime, but a recent offseason shoulder injury will now keep him out indefinitely. As beat reporter James Boyd explains, the starting role is Jones’ to lose.

Two other competitions to watch: 

• Edge rushers against ownership: Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt and Cincinnati’s Trey Hendrickson are the biggest names skipping mandatory minicamp amid contract disputes.
• The competition that might have the most implications for the Super Bowl? It’s happening in Kansas City, where Michael Silver covered the Chiefs offensive line overhaul.

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(Photo: Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images)

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