Brock Boeser, Pius Suter and the risk profile of the Canucks’ free agents

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How should the Vancouver Canucks approach negotiations with their top unrestricted free agents?

At this stage, where Brock Boeser and Pius Suter are concerned, that’s something of a rhetorical question.

The die is more or less cast at this juncture. Negotiations between the Canucks and both players’ respective camps have been ongoing for months, and have yet to bear results.

The door isn’t formally closed on either player ultimately returning to Vancouver for next season, of course, and the club has a high level of regard for both players.

Two weeks out from the start of a new league year, however, it’s fair to say that the balance of probabilities strongly suggests that the club will move forward without either key pending unrestricted free agent player in their lineup next season.

It’s come to this despite the Canucks making a sizeable effort to retain Boeser ahead of the NHL trade deadline. It was an offer — reportedly a five-year deal worth $40 million — that Canucks hockey operations leadership felt at the time fell outside their comfort zone, but it still wasn’t enough to close the gap.

There has long been a fundamental disagreement on the valuation of Boeser’s fourth contract between the two sides. Now that we’re mere weeks from Boeser hitting the open market, it feels pretty safe to suggest that this disagreement may be intractable.

Suter finds himself in a similar spot, even if his skill set — Boeser is the premium goal scorer between the two, despite Suter’s solid five-on-five scoring rate, and goals always come at a premium price in unrestricted free agency — means that the financial stakes of his next deal are somewhat lower.

The versatile Swiss forward put together a career year at the right time. Coming off of a platform season in which he scored 25 goals and 46 points, Suter is poised to cash in significantly on his two-year stint in Vancouver, where he re-established his value after striking out in unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2023, ultimately signing a bargain bin two-year contract with the Canucks.

There is going to be a lot of interest in Suter when the market opens this time around, including from Vancouver. In fact, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Canucks were to circle back with Suter yet again before the market opens.

Things can change rapidly at this time in the hockey calendar, but Suter’s probable price point has continued to exceed Vancouver’s appetite in the early stages of the NHL offseason.

In unpacking what all of this means from a Canucks perspective, let’s begin by considering Boeser.

Boeser’s next contract is likely to be a risky one for the team that wins the bidding for his services in unrestricted free agency, but the primary value that he provides is in an area in which Vancouver is especially needy: Boeser is a gifted one-shot goal scorer on a team that struggles mightily to generate quality looks (Vancouver scored the 23rd most goals in hockey this past season).

It’s not that Boeser’s profile is purely one-dimensional either. Although he’s somewhat limited as a driver through the neutral zone, and is more of a possession-based than retrieval-based winger given his skating speed, it’s worth noting that Boeser has repeatedly earned the trust of various Canucks head coaches — from Travis Green, to Bruce Boudreau, to Rick Tocchet — to play against tough matchups at the top of the lineup.

No one would confuse Boeser with being a true blue defensive stopper, but he’s a very smart player and a fully capable defensive presence. His overall strength on the wall and high hockey IQ has generally allowed Boeser to help his Canucks teams win their minutes at the top of the lineup.

No matter how risky Boeser’s next contract is likely to be, the minutes that he’s consistently handled in a first-line role and his overall reliability as a top-line calibre player will be difficult for Vancouver to replace.

Where Boeser’s contributions may be most sorely missed if he signs elsewhere on July 1, however, is on the power play.

As a young man entering the league, Boeser was enormously productive and earned himself a nomination for the Calder Trophy in his first full NHL season largely due to his work as a high volume power-play shooter, who scored a ton of goals as a left-side flanker on his one-time side in the early stages of his career.

As Boeser grew up in the league, however, and as the Canucks added power-play personnel — most notably J.T. Miller, who was most effective as a primary initiator while playing on the left flank on his down hill side — Boeser had to adjust his game. He did so successfully.

Boeser remade his game to fit what the Canucks required on their first power-play unit. He made himself into an ace at the net front, developing into a menace as a screener and a legitimate threat as a down-low playmaker.

Boeser’s contributions at the net front on the power play are high-end. Subtly, that aspect of his game will give him an opportunity to live up to his next contract with whomever he ultimately signs with this summer.

More evidently, it will open up a massive hole in the Vancouver lineup, one the club will have to be diligent about planning for and filling, in the event that Boeser departs in unrestricted free agency.

The relevant discussion around Suter, likewise, should focus first and foremost on his special-teams value.

There is a lot about Suter’s game that is relatively unique, including his remarkable versatility. This is a forward who is a special defensive contributor and maintains a high level of play in 11 of 12 spots in the lineup. (He is only really miscast as a top-line centre.)

Suter may not be big and he may not be fast at all, but he’s so crafty and clever that he can slot in just about anywhere in an NHL lineup and do the things that help his team win games. As a top-line winger, we’ve seen Suter score clutch goals in the playoffs while helping star-level teammates manage better defensive results than they manage with other linemates. As a third-line centre, we’ve seen him drive a bottom-six line.

That versatility is as significant as it is unique. It’s helped the Canucks overcome various injuries and suboptimal alignments. That Suter is every bit as effective as a top-line wing as he is when tasked with playing third-line centre makes him something of the ultimate floor-raising piece.

But as you can see in that graph in the lower left, it’s on the penalty kill that Suter does his best work.

Last season, especially over the latter half of the campaign following the Miller trade, Vancouver’s penalty kill morphed into a serious weapon.

After years of being historically permissive when shorthanded, the Canucks penalty kill was incredible last year. And a significant heaping of that credit is due to a trio of penalty killers in Suter, Teddy Blueger and Derek Forbort who got on an incredible roll as the first men over the boards whenever the Canucks were assessed a penalty.

As much as Canucks fans are focused on the spots in the lineup that the Canucks will need to scramble to fill if Boeser, Suter or both leave , it’s worth also factoring in the unique special teams value that both players provide.

The Canucks don’t just need to add an additional middle-six centre if Suter departs, after all — they would also need to add a penalty killing forward capable of driving high-end results when shorthanded. Vancouver doesn’t just need to add a top-line wing, or replace Boeser’s consistent 25-30 goal scoring clip if he signs elsewhere on July 1 — they’ll also need to be intentional about and conscious of identifying a skilled right-handed forward capable of contributing at the net front with the man advantage.

This special teams angle is part of what makes the Canucks’ team building exercise so complicated this summer.

This is a Canucks team, after all, that outscored their opponents at five-on-five by a worse rate than middling sides such as the Anaheim Ducks, the Calgary Flames and the New York Islanders last year.

With the fifth-best penalty killing percentage and the 15th-best power-play conversion rate last season, however, Vancouver was a combined plus-eight in special teams situations. In a nightmare campaign, special teams play often kept this Canucks team afloat.

In the event that both Boeser and Suter aren’t re-signed over the next two weeks, meanwhile, the club will lose a pair of forwards who were instrumental in driving those special teams results. Replacing their overall contributions will be tricky enough, but replacing their special teams value is one of the most significant challenges — and risks — that Canucks management may have to navigate this summer.

(Photo of Pius Suter and forward Brock Boeser: Bob Frid / Imagn Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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